“Much occurred in 6 months: elections, change from Republicans to Democrats, Covid, lockdowns, gazillions of central bank meetings, average Inflation Targets. The market and the target price doesn’t care to such things and will never care in the future. The target price and the price path to target is the only concern.”
I agree the past eleven months have been noisy given the last election and the Covid pandemic. One way to block out the noise is to remodel how you view government’s role in the political economy. You start by creating two major blocks.
The first block is comprised of “The Barbarians”, the citizenry whose passions America’s founders were concerned about. The Barbarians are made up of the taxpayers and consumers whose dollars keep the political economy going. Between February 2020 and November 2020, the U.S. listened to a lot of noise generated by two management companies vying for the job of controlling government and managing the populace: the Democrats and the Republicans. The Barbarians chose the Democrats during the 2020 silly season to be their political managers.
The second block is “The Cosa Nostra.” Within this block is where the interbank market operates; where banks trade overnight dollars in order to meet their reserve requirements and acquire foreign exchange. This block is co-managed by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Specifically, the Treasury, as a political agency, plays a conduit role tying the Barbarians to the Cosa Nostra. To fund the political promises made to the Barbarians, the Treasury issues bonds underwritten by the Federal Reserve and taxes the Barbarians in order to raise proceeds necessary for paying off its IOUs to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is the Treasury’s chief underwriter.
The political independence of the Federal Reserve and the lack of significant regulation of the interbank market for foreign exchange should tell the trader that it is okay to ignore the noises of the chattering classes both within government and the media. A well run political management company aware of its role in the political economy would minimize any breach of the gates separating the masses from the Cosa Nostra that can be caused by a passionate set of barbarians.
The government strategy takeaway here is to keep focus on the conduit role of government, specifically the Treasury. The pandemic stimulus discussions are a great example. How much will this package cost? How much of it will be financed? At what interest rates? Will there be a generation of yield such that capital flows into the U.S.? Will this capital flow raise demand for the US dollar?
If government activity does not generate the above questions, then it is just noise.