1 September 2021
It is in the best interest of governments and their central bank underwriters that government maintains some control over the market price for currencies. As a reflection of the underlying value of a political economy, currency prices signal a country’s capacity to entertain investment. Stable currency prices transmit a message that the underlying economy operates in an environment of legal, social, and regulatory certainty. Whereas financial markets enjoy the profits and arbitrage opportunities that volatility may bring, governments and their central bank underwriters prefer a law-and-order environment for trade. Certainty of domestic and foreign investment along with tax and customs collection is the higher priority for government.
There is a lot of noise that, in my opinion, blocks out these basic tenets of political economy. It is no wonder that chartists or technical analysts focus primarily on pip movements on their bar graphs. Pontification on future government moves can cause hair to be pulled out and put a trader into a state of mental numbness. The trader cannot, however, take her eyes off of the policy ball for it is the policy maker, in this case the Federal Reserve, that provides the nutrients for currency growth and circulation. It is their narrative that drives prices. It is their decisions on reserve requirements, asset purchases, and fed fund and discount window rates that signal to their currency vendors, the banks, the varying rates that currency is sold to the public.
And thus, this is part of the fallacy; that banks are somehow free market players charging a market-driven interest rate for loans. On the contrary. Banks are more like government chartered (commissioned) privateers who sell currency to the public either via loans or directly over the counter during foreign exchange transactions. Banks are merely doing the bidding of a government that needs its currency to flow to activities that eventually generate taxable events. Banks provide government with a low-cost information search alternative for seeking out and financing high-yielding taxable events.
The trader should maintain focus on policy narratives and decisions that will impact the price of the dollar, currently the world’s most prevalent reserve currency. Central banks are consuming economic, political, and these days more social data and inputting this information into their narrative. The narrative creates the marching orders for their chief currency vendors, the banks. There is no free market when your marching orders come from the central bank. The free market is a fallacy that serves only to create a lot of noise from amongst the chattering classes.
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