Interbank Market News Scan: Dipping my toes into the USD-JPY market

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For the past week or so I have been trading the binary options in the GBP-USD market.  I focused on this market primarily because the US and UK sessions intersect during the first few hours of the American session allowing me some time to do some reading and research before making a trade.  Time spent on another project, however, meant missing the opportunity to trade during those sessions, so I decided to dip my toes into the Asian session.

I admit to having had some hesitancy toward trading during the Asian session.  I am less familiar with Japanese monetary policy and the yen.  Their central bankers get a lot less play in the business media than central bankers at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, or the Bank of England which means reduced insights into Japanese monetary policy.  But I find that there is upside that can result from fear: the ever-present opportunity to learn.

The first stop in taking an opportunity to learn included a visit to the Bank of Japan’s website where I identified data on the BOJ’s overnight bank rates.  I then compared these rates with the overnight bank rates of the Federal Reserve.   Banks with accounts at the Federal Reserve are getting much better rates than those with accounts at the BOJ.

The business media has been reporting on Japan’s sub-zero rate policy for years, heck decades, so there was no surprise on my part when Bloomberg data showed the wide difference in rates between the U.S. and Japan.  The 150-point spread between U.S. 10-year government bonds and Japanese 10-year government bonds supported in my mind opportunities for those holding yen to move to the dollar thus increasing dollar demand and driving up the exchange rate between the two currencies.

Business media, in my opinion, paints the USD-JPY pair as volatile which I guess can cause some trepidation for traders trying to guess where the exchange rate is going to go.  I am growing increasingly suspect of most business media.  I see them more as purveyor of narrative instead of distributor of fact.  They are as noisy as their political media cousins and contribute to the noise and trepidation I mentioned earlier.

Fortunately, there are outlets such as Daily FX and FX Street that provide analysis that cuts through the noise. Using analysis from these outlets I was able to establish a probable floor of USD-JPY=112.00 and a probable ceiling of USD-JPY=113.50, betting that during a four-hour contract the exchange rate would exceed 113.20 prior to the contract’s expiration.

My biggest takeaway from last night’s trade was one should not allow fear and lack of knowledge to limit the opportunity to profit.  Seek out good information sources and pursue a path of knowledge.  Knowledge helps to process out the fear.

Alton Drew

12.10.2021  

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