Taking a look at the US money supply numbers: Has the political right missed the mark?

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Between February 2021 and February 2022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (BOG-Fed) data shows that M1 money supply increased 12.7% or 1.05% per month. When you put this data along side unemployment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the 1.05% monthly increase in money supply accompanies a monthly 3.2% decrease in the unemployment rate.

Inflation is running at a rate of 7.9% between February 2021 and February 2022, according to BLS data. This translates to a roughly 0.65% monthly increase in household expenditures.

And the dollar index which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies has risen 7.3% over the February 2021 to February 2022 period, which translates to 0.60% per month.

I’m not going to attempt a causal analysis here. A cursory view of the money supply and dollar index could lead one to conclude that the relationship between the money supply and the dollar index is less than unitary which could be interpreted as the existence of price elasticity; that buyers of dollars could find other competitive currencies to carry out a trade. I won’t say “carry trade” since I am not looking at bond yields.

The political right has been consistent in pointing out that inflation is reflective of increased money supply, but I cannot say whether the less than unitary response in the inflation rate when compared to the change in money supply indicates that the political right has missed the mark.

Alton Drew

03.04.2022

For consultation on how this political or legal event impacts your foreign exchange trade, request an appointment at altondrew@altondrew.com.

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