Interbank Market News Scan: Expecting GBP-USD to top 1.3780, but asking why would I want to buy the British pound?

The GBP-USD currency pair has, at the time of this writing, an exchange rate of 1.3812.  Analysis conducted by FXStreet has support for future increased price movement between 1.3640 and 1.3800 and resistance to price increase anywhere between 1.3840 and 1.3900.  Retail traders are more bearish on the currency pair’s price movement which, from what I gather from the analysis, may be contributing to GBP-USD breaching and staying above 1.3800.

Although, as a binary options trader, I focus on what exchange rate a pair will close out at by the end of the day meaning that what little profit I make is based on getting the price movement call correct, I share with most retail traders the desire to see a currency pair climb.  I will always cheer on the attainment of profit because profit equates to the income the trader needs in order to maintain a roof over her children’s heads.  But given the mostly gloomy news out of the United Kingdom, I have been asking myself, why would anyone want to buy the damned pound?

According to data from the Bank of England, inflation in the UK is running at 3.1% while the UK’s Office of National Statistics has gross domestic product growing at an annualized at 5.5%.  The UK government’s ten-year bond is yielding 1.18% and unemployment is at 4.5%.

Contrast UK performance with the United States and at first blush you wonder why exchange US currency for UK currency unless you just need a getaway to visit relatives in London.  The US is experiencing a rate of inflation more than twice the Federal Reserve’s 2% target (5.4% to be exact); is enjoying 6.7% growth in gross domestic product; and has ten-year government bonds yielding 1.65%. 

If anything, it would appear that a trader would borrow pound and make a few bets in the States.  This relative dollar strength may be what is keeping the 1.3800 lid on the GBP-USD.

In the meantime, I am thinking of conducting a comparison of UK consumer baskets to US consumer baskets.  I never hear anyone in the media make this type of comparison.  I think such a comparison would add to the discussion. Let me know what you think.  

Alton Drew

21.10.2021

Interbank Market News Scan: Trading within your time reality

Beginning traders are told time and time again to keep their emotions out of a trade.  It is nerve racking to sit in front of a screen and watch Japanese candles change in color, width, and height as you second guess your trade.  It makes no sense torturing myself like that.  It tells me that I am questioning my homework or lack thereof and if that is the case, I need to work a little harder on analyzing all available data before I pull the trigger on a trade.

Making the above observation, I see why it is important to keep your trading plan and trade journal handy.  Your plan keeps you grounded and disciplined. You put time and thought into writing it. You may as well follow it, knowing that as you amass more experience and knowledge that eventually the plan will be modified. In the meantime, however, like any good athlete, you don’t want to make any changes in the game plan while in the heat of battle.  In the heat of battle is not the time to practice.

When it comes to time constraints, for those of us who are funding our trading desks ourselves, getting out of our comfort zones and trading in sessions that are not in our time zones is a “blessing.”  As I shared in my last blog post, I dipped my toes in the Asian session by trading the dollar-yen for the first time.  My business trade during the day influences when I can do my day trade in binary options.  Taking advantage of the 24/5 nature of the foreign exchange markets means there is always an opportunity to make a return. 

Alton Drew

19.10.2021