Interbank Market News Scan: The Bank of Canada held its policy rate today, but I was nervous about USD-CAD

The Bank of Canada today held its policy rate at .25% citing the effectiveness of its quantitative easing program which is currently comprised of asset purchases of CAD 2 billion a week. While seeing a recovery in its economy, Covid-19 and supply chain disruptions were noted as the usual suspects for dampening of economic growth in certain sectors.

The Bank noted contraction in its export sector, in particular its auto industry with consumption, business investment, and government spending contributing to Canada’s economy.  Inflation is running around 3.7%, much hotter than its 2% target.

From a yield and inflation aspect, I could not see why Americans would want to move dollars into Canada’s economy.  Granted U.S. inflation, at 5.4% over the last 12 months, is running hotter than inflation in Canada.  However, according to data from Bloomberg, ten-year treasury yields are higher in the U.S. (1.35%) than they are in Canada (1.21%).

Yesterday, data from Reuters showed the USD/CAD closing around 1.2621 and I quite frankly thought (in my gut) that the exchange rate would decrease by 11:00 am EST but decided to hold out for the Bank of Canada narrative on rates.  I did not see much change in this report versus last month’s monetary policy release.  I also did not see any calls for changes in monetary policy which added support, in my opinion, to an expected increase in USD/CAD.

The takeaway for me is there is nothing wrong with listening to your gut but always challenge the feeling with data and vice versa. 

Please feel free to share thoughts on central bank decisions and foreign exchange.  

Happy Star Trek Day!

Alton Drew

8 September 2021

Please support my efforts by making a donation via PayPal or visiting our advertisers.

Interbank Market News Scan: Canada sees no rush to issue a central bank digital coin …

Links you should follow ….

Foreign exchange. Luis Costa outlines commodity currencies that he is trading. This strategist outlines which currency commodities he’s trading (msn.com)

Foreign exchange. The Bank of Canada is thinking in more concrete terms about how its digital currency might look and work but it does not currently see a strong case for issuing one, a deputy governor said on Wednesday. Bank of Canada does not see currently see strong case for issuing digital currency | Nasdaq

Foreign exchange. After more than a year of slumber, investors are preparing for currency volatility to come roaring back to life. Currency FX Volatility Set for a Comeback on Looming Policy Shifts – Bloomberg

Foreign exchange. A dovish Federal Reserve and accelerating growth abroad are weighing on the dollar, a move that could be a boon for stocks and other assets. Analysis-Floundering dollar falls to bottom of global currency heap (msn.com)

Foreign exchange, cryptocurrency. ‘Bitcoin isn’t even a reliable hedge for risk-off events, let alone inflation shocks. It’s actually highly pro-cyclical…In difficult times, crypto assets don’t go up; they go down.’— Nouriel Roubini. Bitcoin isn’t a currency or financial asset, but ‘looks like a bubble’: Roubini (msn.com)

Foreign exchange rates of interest …

Changes in currency tails comprised of the euro, US dollar, and Canadian dollar and currencies out of the Eastern Caribbean, Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica remained relatively flat over the last 24 hours. Any tightening of rates on the part of major central banks is expected to have a significant impact on Caribbean currencies thus the purchasing power and cost of remittances sent back to the Caribbean.

Currency PairsRates as of 12:00 pm AST 27 May 2021Rates as of 10:45 am AST 26 May 2021
EUR/XCD3.30073.3055
USD/XCD2.70002.7000
CAD/XCD2.22492.2402
EUR/JMD182.7800181.2040
USD/JMD147.9460148.0130
CAD/JMD122.3780122.8050
USD/DOP56.479956.4454
USD/HTG88.663488.6591
Source: OANDA

Interbank Market News Scan: China is graying and will need to revamp its demographic policies ….

Links to follow today ….

Central banks, China. A pension deficit and looming debt crisis driven by a rapidly greying population. That’s the nightmare scenario for Chinese authorities, including the nation’s central bank, who are increasingly worried about the financial implications of the country’s demographic challenges. China population: what’s driving central bank concern about the nation’s ageing workforce? | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)

Central banks, CBDCs. The proposed authoritarian evolution of centrally issued digital currencies takes the world closer to dystopia. Central Bank Digital Currencies And The Orwellian New World Order | Nasdaq

Central banks, bitcoin. Billionaire investor Mike Novogratz said Thursday the surge in cryptocurrencies is serving as a referendum on the perceived ability of the Federal Reserve to manage risks facing the world’s largest economy and suggested people continue to buy into bitcoin. Billionaire investor Mike Novogratz says the record-breaking rally in crypto shows a lack of faith in the Fed – and cites central-bank uncertainty as a reason for bitcoin’s latest surge (msn.com)

Central banks, Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada sent out a warning to investors this week that inflation still matters. In a surprise move, it accelerated the timetable for a possible interest-rate increase and began paring back its bond purchases on Wednesday. That made Canada the first major economy to signal its intent to reduce emergency levels of monetary stimulus. Inflation Forces the Bank of Canada’s Hand Ahead of Fed and ECB (msn.com)

As we enter a new week, the rates to start your day ….

As of 11:30 am EST, Bloomberg reports that the yield on the three-month Treasury note closed at 0.02% last Friday while the two-year note closed at 0.16%. The ten-year and thirty-year Treasurys closed Friday at 1.56% and 2.23%, respectively.

The Federal Funds rate, the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight in support of their reserve requirements, is at .07%, while the Fed Funds target rate is still at .25%. The prime lending rate is 3.25%.

Exchange rates of interest as of 5:30 pm EST….

Currency PairsRates as of 5:30 pm EST 25 April 2021
EUR/USD1.1890
GBP/USD1.3718
USD/CAD1.2568
AUD/USD0.7625
USD/JPY108.0210
USD/NOK8.5402
USD/CHF0.9417
USD/SEK8.7274
USD/MEX20.5078
Source: OANDA

9 November 2020: Foreign exchange rates between U.S. and select countries in East Africa, West Africa, the Caribbean, and Asia

As of 11:14 pm EST, 9 November 2020:

How to read the chart:

CAD/USD: If you come to the United States with one Canadian dollar (CAD)and wish to sell it for a US dollar (USD), the market price is .76934 USD.

USD/CAD: If you take a US dollar (USD) to Canada and wish to sell it for a Canadian dollar (CAD), the market price is 1.29964 CAD

CAD/USD=0.76934   USD/CAD=1.29964

CNH/USD= 0.15178   USD/CNH=6.58714

EUR/USD= 1.18614    USD/EUR=0.84297

DKK/USD =0.15921     USD/DKK=6.27914

NGN/USD= 0.00261    USD/NGN=381.557

JPY/USD=0.00958       USD/JPY=104.36

INR/USD=0.01352       USD/INR=73.8335

JMD/USD=0.00674      USD/JMD=145.335

GYD/USD=0.00478       USD/GYD= 209.215

GHS/USD=0.17142       USD/GHS= 5.82570

XCD/USD=0.37037        USD/XCD= 2.70

KES/USD = 0.00910       USD/KES= 107.944

Source: OANDA

Major political/legal event in the United States

Biden launches transition website

Presumptive president-elect Joseph R. Biden has launched a transition website that describes his initial initiatives he plans to address upon taking office in January 2021.  Mr Biden appears prepared to engage in a level of spending to address faults and inequities in the American economic infrastructure that were in place prior to the Covid pandemic.  Spending initiatives include:

  • Providing state, local, and tribal governments with financial assistance;
  • Extending Covid crisis unemployment insurance to people out of work;
  • Provide a financial package for small businesses and entrepreneurs;
  • Creation of a public health corps that puts the unemployed to work fighting the pandemic.

No discussion has been provided by the transition team yet on the costs of these packages and the impact they may have on money supply expansion/contraction, trade, or foreign exchange rates.

Source: BuildBackBetter.com

Treasury announces tax deduction for pass-through entities

Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced rule changes that clarify that State and local income taxes imposed on and paid by a pass-through entity are allowed as a deduction by the pass-through entity in computing its non-separately stated taxable income or loss for the taxable year of payment. 

Source: Treasury.gov

The US Dollar takes a hit against particular currencies as ballot counting winds down.

As of 11:27 am EST, 5 November 2020:

How to read the chart:

CAD/USD: If you come to the United States with one Canadian dollar (CAD)and wish to sell it for a US dollar (USD), the market price is .75872 USD.

USD/CAD: If you take a US dollar (USD) to Canada and wish to sell it for a Canadian dollar (CAD), the market price is 1.31781 CAD

CAD/USD=0.75872   USD/CAD=1.31781

CNH/USD= 0.14978   USD/CNH=6.67451

EUR/USD= 1.16944    USD/EUR=0.85500

DKK/USD =0.15704     USD/DKK=6.36610

NGN/USD= 0.00261    USD/NGN=382.732

JPY/USD=0.00956       USD/JPY=104.64

INR/USD=0.01341       USD/INR=74.4410

JMD/USD=0.00679      USD/JMD=144.248

GYD/USD=0.00478       USD/GYD= 209.165

GHC/USD=0.00002       USD/GHC= 58,333.7

XCD/USD=0.37037 USD/XCD=2.70

Source: Bankrate

Major political/legal event in the United States:  Ballot counting is continuing in the U.S. presidential elections. Democratic presidential candidate Joseph R. Biden reportedly has 264 unofficial Electoral College votes while Republican candidate Donald J. Trump has 214 unofficial Electoral College votes.

The official declaration of President-Elect is scheduled for 14 December 2020.

Today, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System concludes their Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  The Board will report its fed funds rate decision at 2:00 pm EST.

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve