An importer wants to short the dollar …

Tywin Lannister decides to invest in the import/export business.  He wants to import certain goods from the United Kingdom and resell them in the United States.  He estimates that he will need 7.5 million British pounds (GBP) to purchase, package, process, and deliver his British goods to the U.S. 

At an exchange rate of $1.3740 per British pound, he estimates borrowing $10.305 million from his US bank.  The borrowed amount also includes his estimated profit.

To sweeten the deal with the prime brokerage division of his bank, he offers up $1.05 million dollars in cash and securities as collateral.

Lannister’s business venture so far in Great Britain is a success.  His take comes in (for the purpose of this discussion) at the estimated 7.5 million GBP which also includes his profit.  He would not mind expanding his profit so he hopes that the dollar weakens or depreciates. Fortunately for Lannister the dollar price of a pound has increased to $1.5801.  After converting his pounds to dollars, he realizes $11.85 million, and after repaying his loan, he takes home approximately $1.54 million in profit from his venture.

Lannister likely benefited from a number of market forces.  For example, incomes in the US may have been increasing faster than those in the UK thus increasing demand for the UK’s exports and currency.  The UK’s currency appreciates versus the US.

Prices in the US may have been rising rapidly when compared to prices in the UK. The resulting demand for lower priced UK products would have resulted in an appreciation of the UK’s products and currency.

In addition, interest rates in the UK may have risen higher than in the US, incentivizing the movement of money from the US to the UK resulting in an appreciated UK currency.

A trader’s sound monetary policy strategy will emphasize interest rate moves, but will not discount to zero the other market forces that impact currency values.  Lannister no doubt kept his eyes on all the factors, but given that a central bank is the “farmer” of its nation’s respective currency, Lannister, and any other importer, will pay close attention to the interest rate actions (monetary policy) of its central bank.

Alton Drew 23 September 2021

Interbank Market News Scan: China tightens regulations on foreign exchange market….

5 September 2021

Interbank. Chinese officials to tighten foreign exchange market supervision. https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/!/chinese-officials-to-tighten-foreign-exchange-market-supervision-20210905

Interbank. Nigeria. Naira. Former Deputy Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN), Dr Obadaiah Melafia weekend attributed the dip of the naira in the foreign exchange market to the bad policies of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration and the tensions across the country. “Nigeria is a failed state.” https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/09/dip-of-naira-in-foreign-exchange-market-due-to-buharis-bad-policies-mailafia-alleges/

Interbank. Forex. So what fundamentals are impacting the foreign exchange markets? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/introduction-major-fundamental-influences-forex-080046373.html

Interbank. India. India’s management of foreign exchange reserves results in supporting 18 months of imports. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/panorama/management-of-foreign-exchange-reserves-1026066.html

Interbank. Russia. Russia’s central bank provides alternative economic forecast for the next 18 months; one of a severe down-turn vs. moderate inflation. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/09/03/world-economy-could-face-2008-meltdown-russias-central-bank-warns-a74962

Interbank. Brazil. Digital real. The Central Bank of Brazil is still studying the creation of a Digital Real, according to statements given by Fabio Araujo, a representative of the institution. https://news.bitcoin.com/central-bank-of-brazil-researches-creation-of-digital-real/

Interbank. Dollar Index. As of 10:33 pm EST, the Yahoo Market Watch Dollar Index was at 92.16. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/charts?mod=mw_quote_tab

Central bank decisions as of 5 September 2021, 11:25 pm EST

AUD/USD 0.7437

As of 11:01 pm EST, no Reserve Bank of Australia decisions impacting rates.

NZD/USD 0.7137

As of 11:13 pm EST, no Reserve Bank of New Zealand decisions impacting rates.

USD/JPY 109.8100

As of 11:20 pm EST, no Bank of Japan decisions impacting rates.

USD/CNY

As of 11:24 pm EST, no People’s Bank of China decisions impacting rates.

For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.

Please support my efforts by making a donation via PayPal or visiting our advertisers.

Alton Drew

Toward Public Policy Support for High-value Trade

21 August 2021

I prefer a society that is biased toward trader/merchants; where one lives on the spread and retains the majority of her earnings.  Wage earning is a fancy term for slavery where many in the labor market are subjugated to selling a precious commodity over which they have illusionary control: time.

The irony is that what one earns for their time is inversely related to the wealth of knowledge they have amassed over time.  Unfortunately for the wage earner, the valuation of their labor is made not by the ultimate end user of their product but by the middle man corporation that employs them.  Rather than selling time to the corporation, time should be another input that labor uses to create and sell their product.

Today’s technology makes such a self-ownership approach increasingly feasible depending on the wage earner’s vocation.  Some of us can transition from wage earner to merchant due to digitalization and that sector of the information/knowledge/problem solving industry that we sit in.  So used are we to selling time that we must now start to think of the utilities, database subscriptions, and equipment costs incurred in producing an information product and sell that product at a sufficient margin; to live via the “carry trade.”

The trader wants a profitable balance sheet, one where she has a healthy surplus.  Bankers that provide liquidity to traders also want traders to enjoy a profitable balance sheet because it assures repayment of leverage.

But bankers also want to fund activities generating high returns and I think to ensure that traders are disciplined enough to seek out information on high return activity, banks will want to assess higher interest rates and other margin requirements in order to weed out low-return low value activity.  The Federal Reserve could encourage high-value search behavior by increasing the fed funds and discount window rates.  The Federal Reserve could also start driving up rates by unwinding its monthly purchases of $120 billion in US Treasury and agency-backed mortgage securities.

Higher rates will encourage living on the spread and the seeking of higher returns.

For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.

Interbank Market News Scan: Assessing the Legal and Political “Meteorology” of Foreign Exchange

The Morning Takeaway: Assessing the Legal and Political “Meteorology” of Foreign Exchange

Humans have no need to come in contact with each other but for the exchange of value.  How the value deemed from interaction is determined will be based on an individual assessment of how much benefit is to be gleaned from what another has to exchange.

Determining the benefit of what another party has to exchange means incurring costs for gathering information.  The more cogent and clear the better.  Efforts are optimized and the information gathering becomes efficient.  Understanding the environment producing the information is important.  The environment places parameters on any information obtained.  The environment within which the information is produced may lack characteristics necessary for producing the clearest information possible.

The value that is being exchanged also contains information about the environment it is coming out of.  Take corn or any other agricultural commodity.  For optimal growth, the environment that produces corn should provide a certain quality of soil, nutrients, water, and weather to create a quality yield.  What is yielded should be able to provide you with information on the quality of soil, nutrients, water, and weather from whence the yield came. 

This same approach should be taken to another commodity, currency.  The “soil’ for this commodity is a nation’s central bank and to a lesser extent the commercial banks that act as distribution channels for the currency.  The “soil” is impacted by the “weather” and “climate” generated by the level of transactions occurring within multiple markets in the political economy.  These transactions deliver “rain” onto the soil and impact the yield in currency released into the political economy’s blood flow.  And just like a corn crop can provide the farmer or the end user information about the environment that spawned the yield, so to can currency, or specifically, currency price movements, provide the trader with information about the central bank environment.

For the trader, it is important to assess the legal and political “meteorology” of the central bank environment.  Without these assessments, the trader, whether purchasing currency tails for speculation or as part of an international business transaction, risks not capitalizing on the yields that foreign exchange can bring about.

For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.

Exchange rates of interest as of 11:45 am AST

Currency pairExchange rate
AUD/USD*0.7352
EUR/USD*1.1794
GBP/USD*1.3714
USD/CAD*1.2739
USD/CHF*0.9192
USD/JPY*109.3100
USD/XCD+2.7000
USD/NGN+410.9850
USD/MXN*20.0353
Sources: *Reuters +OANDA

Rates reported by the Federal Reserve (Release Date 16 July 2021)

Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.10%

Discount Window:  0.25%

Prime Bank Rate: 3.25%

3-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

6-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

1-year Treasury bill: 0.07%

Interbank Market News Scan: Banks as currency agents, foreign exchange, Federal Reserve

The Publisher’s Note: Banks as currency agents …

Banks should think of themselves as the private sector currency agents of the State.  The currency encapsulates the economic, commercial, and social value of a political economy.  A State-issued currency ties the State’s citizens to a particular value system while providing a mechanism that accounts for a citizen’s wealth and serves the citizen as a medium of exchange for goods and services, including the payment of taxes to the State.

Banks help distribute State-issued currency primarily through the creation of credit.  Banks are a “port of call” for currency; receiving deposits from its customers, capital from its investors, and placing State-issued Treasurys, underwritten by the central bank, into its investment portfolio.  Banks issue loans to their customers creating money in the process.  This money can be deposited at other banks or used by consumers or businesses for purchases.  The fees for financial services provided to consumers and the interest earned from lending to end users and producers provide the banks with income that, along with the income generated by businesses financed by banks, can be taxed by the State.

The fallout from the 2007-2008 financial meltdown has created a narrative that banks are entities separate from the State; private sector “bad boys” whose reckless behavior from creating financial instruments doomed to perform poorly caused people to lose jobs and credit to freeze.  The narrative had citizens questioning why these misbehaving banks received bailouts from the U.S. government while ordinary citizens had to bear the brunt of the rippling effects throughout the economy. 

The answer is simple.  Selling debt instruments and earning fees for placing these instruments into the hands of investors part of the implicit agreement between the State and the banks as currency agents.  Even as elected officials such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts and Senator Bernie Sanders, Independent of Vermont, argue for increased regulation of America’s larger banks, the truth of the matter is that dismantling the mechanisms of banking would be too costly to the State’s currency distribution system.  The State would have to re-write its laws to support an alternative system and for all the noise against the current system, seems to be in no rush to replace it.    

Links to follow …

Interbank. Orum, which aims to speed up the amount of time it takes to transfer money between banks, announced today it has raised $56 million in a Series B round of funding. https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/29/orum-raises-56m/

Interbank. The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor), which measures the borrowing cost of China’s interbank market, increased 38.2 basis points to 2.177 percent Wednesday. http://www.china.org.cn/china/Off_the_Wire/2021-06/30/content_77597450.htm

Foreign exchange. The Central Bank of The Bahamas says the restrictions placed on foreign exchange outflows at the onset of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will end this week. https://www.nycaribnews.com/articles/foreign-exchange-restrictions-eased-in-bahamas/

Central banks. Investment decisions over the next three months will be influenced by forward guidance from central banks, according to global fund managers in Reuters polls who recommended increasing equity exposure and lowering bond holdings in June. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/funds-eye-central-banks-guidance-124802638.html

Central banks, Federal Reserve. “[D]eveloping a CBDC could, I believe, pose considerable risks.”—Randal Quarles. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/quarles20210628a.htm

Interbank Market News Scan: Federal Reserve, foreign exchange, central banks …

28 June 2021

Links to follow ….

Interbank. China is taking another step to loosen its capital controls and in the process is giving onshore investors greater access to a previously hard-to-reach bond market.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-27/how-china-is-cracking-a-window-for-its-bond-investors-quicktake?sref=oriheOus

Interbank. Only half of loan investors believe their instruments have robust fallback language designed to ensure a smooth transition from the London interbank offered rate, according to a recent survey from Barclays Plc. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-25/libor-fears-persist-for-loan-market-with-six-months-to-deadline?sref=oriheOus

Foreign exchange. Deutsche Bank AG compensated a Spanish company for losses the firm made after purchasing foreign-exchange derivatives from the German lender, people familiar with the matter said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-28/deutsche-bank-compensates-firm-over-fx-derivatives-mis-sales?sref=oriheOus

Central banks. They spent 2020 uniting to fend off a historic recession, but central banks are slowly starting to take different paths in 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-06-28/what-s-happening-in-the-world-economy-peak-central-bank-stimulus?sref=oriheOus

Central banks. Inflation is now an “influencer” of the Fed and the other central banks, but no more than that. The real question is how the central banks will respond to it, if at all, past their public comments. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436858-central-banks-claim-check

Central banks, Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced it will extend for a final time its Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, or PPPLF, by an additional month to July 30, 2021. The extension is being made as an operational accommodation to allow additional processing time for banks, community development financial institutions, and other financial institutions to pledge to the facility any Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP, loans approved by the Small Business Administration through the June 30 expiration of the PPP program. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210625a.htm

U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Today, U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), a member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, and Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) applauded the bipartisan House passage of their resolution to repeal the Trump Administration’s so-called True Lender Rule through the use of the Congressional Review Act. This regulation, finalized in the last months of the prior Administration, allows predatory lenders to skirt state laws meant to curb interest rates on loans and opens the doors for these lenders to prey on vulnerable consumers. The legislation now heads to the President’s desk for signature.  https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/house-passes-van-hollen-brown-legislation-to-strike-down-trump-era-rent-a-bank-rule-sending-it-to-the-presidents-desk

U.S. House Committee on Financial Services.  This week, Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA), Chairwoman of the House Committee on Financial Services, gave the following statement on the House floor urging the passage of Senate Joint Resolution 15, a resolution that invalidates the Trump Administration’s “True Lender” rule. https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=408055

Interbank Market News Scan: Eastern Caribbean, foreign exchange …

10 June 2021

Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange

Today, the Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange reported that the following securities were exchanged on 9 June 2021:

800 East Caribbean Financial Holding Company Ltd shares traded at $4.00 per share, falling $.48, or 10.71%, from its previous price;

3,500 S.L. Horsford & Company Ltd shares traded at $2.00 per share with no change from yesterday’s price;

1,298 TDC shares traded at $1.25 per share, down 3.85% from its previous price; and

80 shares of Cable & Wireless St.Kitts & Nevis Ltd traded odd lot at $3.65 per share.

 On the Regional Government Securities Market, the Government of Antigua and Barbuda’s 365-day Treasury bill auction raised $10 million with a discount rate of 4.30622%.

Scheduled for today, the Government of the Commonwealth of Dominica is expected to auction 91-day Treasury bills at EC$20 million at a maximum rate of 5%.

Source: Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange

Eastern Caribbean Central Bank

The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank recently announced that DCash, the digital version of the Eastern Caribbean dollar (EC), is set to go live in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines by the end of June.  According to the ECCB:

“The immediate objective of launching DCash in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is to allow for the exchange of DCash for physical cash via the DCash Merchant-Teller network. These authorised entities will facilitate DCash to physical cash exchanges, thereby allowing faster, safer and cheaper cross-border person-to-person remittances. Emphasis will also be placed on establishing the DCash merchant network with focus on getting essential service providers DCash-ready. In addition, other DCash users will be able to send funds directly to users in SVG.”

Since 31 March 2021, the countries of St.Kitts-Nevis, St. Lucia, Antigua and Barbuda, and Grenada, have been using DCash.

Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank

European Central Bank

Today, the European Central Bank reported no change in its accommodative approach to stimulating the European economy.  The ECB will maintain the rates for its main refinancing operations at 0%; its marginal lending facility at .25%; and its deposit facility at -.50%. 

The ECB indicated in its statement that there will be acceleration of asset purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) at a total of EUR1,850 billion through March 2022.  The ECB hopes to balance purchase of assets and reinvestment of proceeds from the assets in such a way as to move as close to a two percent inflation point without exceeding that level.  Net monthly purchases under PEPP are expected to be maintained at EUR 20 billion through 2022.   

Source: European Central Bank

Foreign exchange rates of interest…. 

Source: OANDA

Currency PairsRates as of 11:30 am AST 10 June 2021Rates as of 10 June 2020Change in rates
XCD/EUR0.30400.3275(7.2%)
XCD/GBP0.26180.2915(10.2%)
XCD/USD0.37040.3704flat
XCD/CAD0.44810.4970(9.8%)
XCD/NGN152.4650143.05106.6%
XCD/CNY2.36632.6215(9.7%)
XCD/PLN1.35671.4530(6.6%)
XCD/PEN1.44281.257714.7%

Interbank Market News Scan: Eastern Caribbean, foreign exchange, remittances …

9 June 2021

Links you should follow …

Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange.  No trades were made by the end of the trading day, 8 June 2021. https://www.ecseonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ECSE-DAILY-TRADE-REPORT-8Jun21.pdf

Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange. S.L. Horsford & Company Limited to hold 30th annual general meeting. https://www.ecseonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/SLH_NoticeofAGM_2021.pdf

Banks.  The St.Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla National Bank Limited to hold its 50th annual general meeting. https://www.ecseonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/3-6-21_SKNANB_Notice-of-Meeting.pdf

Remittances. Dominicans living abroad have not only sent more remittances to the country between January and April of this year when compared to the same period in 2020, with a growth of 64.8%, but they have also increased the amount by transactions. https://dominicantoday.com/dr/uncategorized/2021/06/08/dominican-republic-remittances-jump-64-8-to-april/

Foreign exchange. UK businesses which make regular overseas payments are losing out on hundreds of pounds per transaction thanks to inferior foreign exchange rates charged by Britain’s biggest banks.  https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/smallbusiness/article-9625805/Is-bank-ripping-business-costly-foreign-exchange-mark-ups.html

Interbank. LIBOR offered interbank rates. https://www.brecorder.com/news/40098690/libor-interbank-offered-rates

Eastern Caribbean Central Bank. DCash, the digital version of the EC dollar, is set to go live in Saint Vincent and The Grenadines by the end of June. https://www.eccb-centralbank.org/news/view/eccb-to-launch-dcash-in-saint-vincent-and-the-grenadines-in-june

Foreign exchange rates of interest…. 

Source: OANDA

Currency PairsRates as of 11:30 am AST 9 June 2021Rates as of 9 June 2020Change in rates
XCD/EUR0.30410.3279(7.3%)
XCD/GBP0.26170.2916(10.3%)
XCD/USD0.37040.3704flat
XCD/CAD0.44790.4962(9.7%)
XCD/NGN152.3500143.11806.4%
XCD/CNY2.36872.6201(9.6%)
XCD/PLN1.35781.4524(6.5%)
XCD/PEN1.44431.261714.4%

Interbank Market News Scan: Canada sees no rush to issue a central bank digital coin …

Links you should follow ….

Foreign exchange. Luis Costa outlines commodity currencies that he is trading. This strategist outlines which currency commodities he’s trading (msn.com)

Foreign exchange. The Bank of Canada is thinking in more concrete terms about how its digital currency might look and work but it does not currently see a strong case for issuing one, a deputy governor said on Wednesday. Bank of Canada does not see currently see strong case for issuing digital currency | Nasdaq

Foreign exchange. After more than a year of slumber, investors are preparing for currency volatility to come roaring back to life. Currency FX Volatility Set for a Comeback on Looming Policy Shifts – Bloomberg

Foreign exchange. A dovish Federal Reserve and accelerating growth abroad are weighing on the dollar, a move that could be a boon for stocks and other assets. Analysis-Floundering dollar falls to bottom of global currency heap (msn.com)

Foreign exchange, cryptocurrency. ‘Bitcoin isn’t even a reliable hedge for risk-off events, let alone inflation shocks. It’s actually highly pro-cyclical…In difficult times, crypto assets don’t go up; they go down.’— Nouriel Roubini. Bitcoin isn’t a currency or financial asset, but ‘looks like a bubble’: Roubini (msn.com)

Foreign exchange rates of interest …

Changes in currency tails comprised of the euro, US dollar, and Canadian dollar and currencies out of the Eastern Caribbean, Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica remained relatively flat over the last 24 hours. Any tightening of rates on the part of major central banks is expected to have a significant impact on Caribbean currencies thus the purchasing power and cost of remittances sent back to the Caribbean.

Currency PairsRates as of 12:00 pm AST 27 May 2021Rates as of 10:45 am AST 26 May 2021
EUR/XCD3.30073.3055
USD/XCD2.70002.7000
CAD/XCD2.22492.2402
EUR/JMD182.7800181.2040
USD/JMD147.9460148.0130
CAD/JMD122.3780122.8050
USD/DOP56.479956.4454
USD/HTG88.663488.6591
Source: OANDA

Interbank Market News Scan: American bank CEOs squaring off with Senate banking committee at 10:00 am EST

Links you should follow …

Banks.  Chief executives of the six largest U.S. banks will testify in Congress Wednesday on oversight topics that include their response to the COVID-19 pandemic, diversity efforts and cryptocurrencies. CEOs of 6 biggest U.S. banks to testify in Senate about COVID-19 moves, culture – UPI.com

Central banks. New Zealand followed in the footsteps of Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase next year as central banks begin to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings. Slowly But Surely, Central Banks Are Signaling Policy Shifts – Bloomberg

Banks. Wells Fargo & Co. has invested in The Harbor Bank of Maryland and a Washington, D.C., institution as part of a 2020 plan to commit $50 million to Black-owned banks around the country. Wells Fargo & Co. invests in The Harbor Bank of Maryland in commitment to Black-owned banks – Baltimore Sun

Central banks. Regional Federal Reserve Banks are taking an increasingly “alarming” stance on politically charged issues like racial justice, according to Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican from Pennsylvania who is the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee. Wokeness at Fed’s regional banks puts central bank independence at risk | Fox Business 

Banks. Bitcoin’s price has continued to fluctuate, falling by $3,000 in a matter of hours, with big banks divided on how to approach the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Price Rollercoaster Continues as Banks Unsure How to Approach the Crypto (msn.com)

Central banks. Eric Robertsen of Standard Chartered Bank sees some upside for commodity currencies with inflation rising. He doesn’t expect the Fed to have any “concrete announcement” on tapering before September. A few G10 central banks will ‘dial back’ bond purchasing programs later this year: Standard Chartered (msn.com) Payment systems. Commercial and central banks across the world are now using blockchain technology for payment processing and issuing of their digital currencies. The technology enables cross-border payments that are less expensive and faster as compared to traditional systems. Rapid Demand for Digital Payment Systems Being Fueled by Increasing Market Growth In Blockchain – MarketWatch

Foreign exchange rates of interest …

Currency PairsRates as of 10:45 am AST 26 May 2021
EUR/XCD3.3055
USD/XCD2.7000
CAD/XCD2.2402
EUR/JMD181.2040
USD/JMD148.0130
CAD/JMD122.8050
USD/DOP56.4454
USD/HTG88.6591
Source: OANDA