Source: Executive Office of the President
President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. will speak with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) this Friday. This is part of our ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication between the United States and the PRC. The two Leaders will discuss managing the competition between our two countries as well as Russia’s war against Ukraine and other issues of mutual concern.
17 March 2022
| Currency Pair | 14 March 2022 | 15 March 2022 | 16 March 2022 | 17 March 2022 | 18 March 2022 |
| USD/CNY | 6.33481 | 6.35857 | 6.37024 | ||
| USD/JPY | 117.289 | 117.914 | 118.82 | ||
| USD/INR | 76.532 | 76.4171 | 76.7321 | ||
| USD/PKR | 178.602 | 178.945 | 178.596 | ||
| USD/BDT | 84.2736 | 84.5523 | 84.3774 | ||
| USD/SAR | 3.74524 | 3.74524 | 3.74524 | ||
| USD/SGD | 1.36151 | 1.3651 | 1.36581 | ||
| USD/MYR | 4.19147 | 4.20053 | 4.20484 | ||
| USD/VND | 22,874.1 | 22,888.5 | 22.883.3 | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.72899 | 0.72353 | 0.7193 | ||
| NZD/USD | 0.68055 | 0.67795 | 0.67566 | ||
| Dollar Index | 99.28 | 98.87 | 98.86 |
| Currency Pair | 14 March 2022 | 15 March 2022 | 16 March 2022 | 17 March 2022 | 18 March 2022 |
| USD/CNY | 6.33481 | 6.35857 | |||
| USD/JPY | 117.289 | 117.914 | |||
| USD/INR | 76.532 | 76.4171 | |||
| USD/PKR | 178.602 | 178.945 | |||
| USD/BDT | 84.2736 | 84.5523 | |||
| USD/SAR | 3.74524 | 3.74524 | |||
| USD/SGD | 1.36151 | 1.3651 | |||
| USD/MYR | 4.19147 | 4.20053 | |||
| USD/VND | 22,874.1 | 22,888.5 | |||
| AUD/USD | 0.72899 | 0.72353 | |||
| NZD/USD | 0.68055 | 0.67795 | |||
| Dollar Index | 99.28 | 98.87 |
Central Bank of the People’s Republic of China
Under the authorization of the People’s Bank of China (PBC), the National Interbank Funding Center (NIFC) announced the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on February 21, 2022 as follows: the one-year LPR is 3.7% and the above-five-year LPR is 4.6%. The rates are effective until the next release. See article here. Source: The People’s Bank of China.
In order to keep the liquidity of the banking system adequate at a reasonable level, the People’s Bank of China conducted reverse repo operations in the amount of RMB10 billion through interest rate bidding on February 21, 2022. The reverse repo operations have a maturity of seven days at 2.10%. See article here. Source: The People’s Bank of China.
The following are the central parity rates of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan, against 24 major currencies announced on Monday by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. See article here. Source: China.org.cn
Monetary Authority of Singapore
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced (last Friday) that it will further extend the MAS SGD Facility for ESG Loans [1] (the Facility). This extension will complement the six-month extension of Enterprise Singapore’s (ESG) Temporary Bridging Loan Programme [2] (TBLP) from 1 April 2022 to 30 September 2022.
2 The Facility will continue to provide Singapore Dollar (SGD) funding to eligible financial institutions [3] (EFIs) for a two year tenor. A revised interest rate of 0.5% per annum [4] will apply for funding provided from the May 2022 application window onwards, to better reflect interest rates in Singapore, which have risen alongside the economic recovery.
3 Since its introduction in April 2020, the Facility has disbursed a total of S$14.2 billion to EFIs in support of their lending to companies under the ESG Loan Schemes. Collectively, the Government’s risk sharing through the ESG Loan Schemes and MAS’ lower-cost funding through the Facility will continue to keep borrowing costs low for local enterprises to support their cashflow needs.
Source: Monetary Authority of Singapore
Interbank, Ghana, cedi. “Uncertainties surrounding the country’s ongoing access to forex are causing speculations on the FX market which has effectively driven the spread between cedi depreciation on the interbank and the retail markets.” See article here. Source: GhanaWeb
Interbank, China, yuan. “Holdings of Chinese government bonds by offshore investors rose in January despite a steep drop in yield premiums over U.S. government debt, as investors continued to seek safe havens from inflation and rising rates afflicting other markets.” See article here. Source: Nasdaq
Interbank, Pakistan, rupee. “Rupee slipped 0.13 percent (-23 paisa) against the US dollar last week despite recent inflows from the International Monetary Fund.” See article here. Source: Daily Times
Interbank, China, bonds. “China’s interbank treasury bond index in net price opened at 996.19 points Monday, lower than the previous close of 997.24 points, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System.” See article here. Source: China.org.cn
Foreign exchange rates and dollar index as of 5:20 am EDT
EUR/USD=1.13456
GBP/USD=1.35484
USD/MXN=20.5234
USD/GTQ=7.51781
USD/NGN=416.51
USD/GHS=6.32313
USD/VND=22,686.8
USD/JPY=115.451
USD/KRW=1,199.56
USD/INR=75.412
USD/BTC=0.00002
USD/ETH=0.00034
Source: OANDA
Dollar Index=96.29
Source: MarketWatch
5 September 2021
Interbank. Chinese officials to tighten foreign exchange market supervision. https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/!/chinese-officials-to-tighten-foreign-exchange-market-supervision-20210905
Interbank. Nigeria. Naira. Former Deputy Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN), Dr Obadaiah Melafia weekend attributed the dip of the naira in the foreign exchange market to the bad policies of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration and the tensions across the country. “Nigeria is a failed state.” https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/09/dip-of-naira-in-foreign-exchange-market-due-to-buharis-bad-policies-mailafia-alleges/
Interbank. Forex. So what fundamentals are impacting the foreign exchange markets? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/introduction-major-fundamental-influences-forex-080046373.html
Interbank. India. India’s management of foreign exchange reserves results in supporting 18 months of imports. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/panorama/management-of-foreign-exchange-reserves-1026066.html
Interbank. Russia. Russia’s central bank provides alternative economic forecast for the next 18 months; one of a severe down-turn vs. moderate inflation. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/09/03/world-economy-could-face-2008-meltdown-russias-central-bank-warns-a74962
Interbank. Brazil. Digital real. The Central Bank of Brazil is still studying the creation of a Digital Real, according to statements given by Fabio Araujo, a representative of the institution. https://news.bitcoin.com/central-bank-of-brazil-researches-creation-of-digital-real/
Interbank. Dollar Index. As of 10:33 pm EST, the Yahoo Market Watch Dollar Index was at 92.16. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/charts?mod=mw_quote_tab
Central bank decisions as of 5 September 2021, 11:25 pm EST
AUD/USD 0.7437
As of 11:01 pm EST, no Reserve Bank of Australia decisions impacting rates.
NZD/USD 0.7137
As of 11:13 pm EST, no Reserve Bank of New Zealand decisions impacting rates.
USD/JPY 109.8100
As of 11:20 pm EST, no Bank of Japan decisions impacting rates.
USD/CNY
As of 11:24 pm EST, no People’s Bank of China decisions impacting rates.
For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.
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Alton Drew
25 August 2021
As US Vice-President Kamala Harris wraps up her Asia tour this week, I was curious to see how currency prices have moved since the Biden-Harris administration took office on 20 January 2021. I see a battle for currency preference between the United States, the Eurozone, and China and so far, seven months into the Biden-Harris administration, the Eurozone is being left behind.
Where the dollar, the yuan, and the euro are priced in terms of the ringgit, Indian rupee, and the yen, the yuan has seen the greatest price increase since 20 January 2021. For example, during the period 20 January 2021 to 25 August 2021, USD/JPY increased 6%; USD/MYR increased 4%, and the USD/INR increased 1.8% for an average of 3.93%.
During the same period, the CNY/JPY increased 6%; CNY/MYR increased 14%; and the CNY/INR increased 1.6% for an average of 7.2%.
Meanwhile, the euro got the least love with EUR/JPY increasing 2.9%; EUR/MYR relatively flat at 0.008%; and EUR/INR decreasing by 1.29%. Using this bucket of Asian currencies, average euro increase is around .54%
In the immediate run, I don’t see dollar or euro prices in terms of the ringgit, yen, or Indian rupee increasing especially if Asian economies are somehow able to increase their respective economies productive capacities and increase trade with each other, taking advantage of their resource-rich environments. The Harris-Biden administration’s fall in polling numbers as a result of perceived mismanagement of American withdrawal from Afghanistan and less than stellar campaign to get more of the American population vaccinated may likely weigh on the effectiveness of Ms Harris’ attempt to garner strategic trading partners in the region.
Alton Drew
For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.
Foreign exchange rates of interest as of 10:20 am EST
| Currency Pair | Federal Reserve | Reuters |
| AUS/USD | 0.7133 | 0.7254 |
| USD/BRL | 5.3990 | 5.2419 |
| USD/CAD | 1.2853 | 1.2623 |
| USD/CNY | 6.5012 | 6.4771 |
| USD/DKK | 6.3612 | 6.3337 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1690 | 1.1739 |
| USD/HKD | 7.7897 | 7.7840 |
| USD/INR | 74.3500 | 74.2250 |
| USD/JPY | 109.7700 | 109.9300 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6830 | 0.6949 |
| USD/MYR | 4.2385 | 4.2020 |
24 August 2021
The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is set to begin on 26 August 2021 with oral and written presentations focused on macroeconomic policy in an uneven economy. Federal Reserve Board chairman Jerome Powell will make a presentation on 27 August.
Since the Federal Reserve released its minutes of the 27-28 July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the biggest buzz has been speculation s to when the Federal Reserve would begin easing back on its $120 billion per month purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasury securities. These purchases have been instrumental in keeping interest rates low during the Covid-19 pandemic with the intent of spurring business spending and investment, sustaining consumer demand, and maintaining certainty in the financial markets.
The minutes from the FOMC meeting has hinted at a possibility of Fed asset purchases tapering off as early as the end of this year and upward pressure on interest rates, especially in the longer-term range, is expected.
Meanwhile, U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris today heads to Vietnam as part of the second leg of a four-day tour of Asia. Ms Harris’ primary mission appears to include not only the building of relationships with certain Asian countries, but to let Asian countries know that they have an economic partner alternative to China.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative throughout Asia as well as its claims on the South China Sea through which trillions in dollars of commercial trade passes through poses an economic threat to the United States. Unless the US can pose itself as a reliable economic trading partner to Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Taiwan, amongst other nations, then the United States may be locked out of the Asian markets or forced to buy and sell goods and services in the region on onerous terms.
Ms Harris has been making the argument that China’s efforts in the South China Sea are illegal under international law.
For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.
Foreign exchange rates of interest as of 9:00 am EST
| Currency Pair | Federal Reserve | Reuters | OANDA |
| AUS/USD | 0.7133 | 0.7243 | 0.7184 |
| USD/BRL | 5.3990 | 5.3789 | 5.3793 |
| USD/CAD | 1.2853 | 1.2618 | 1.2718 |
| USD/CNY | 6.5012 | 6.4772 | 6.4833 |
| USD/DKK | 6.3612 | 6.3359 | 6.3399 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1690 | 1.1735 | 1.1728 |
| USD/HKD | 7.7897 | 7.7878 | 7.7912 |
| USD/INR | 74.1900 | 74.1940 | 74.0634 |
| USD/JPY | 109.7700 | 109.6700 | 109.8400 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6830 | 0.6949 | 0.6867 |
| USD/MYR | 4.2385 | 4.2170 | 4.2265 |
15 August 2021
| Currency pair | Exchange rate | 10-year yield, government securities |
| AFN/CNY | 0.0798 | 2.88 |
| AFN/USD | 0.01233 | 1.28 |
The transition of political power occurring in Afghanistan today should have traders and brokers asking about the currency trade opportunities under a Taliban-led Afghanistan. The price of the Afghani has been falling in both US dollars and Chinese renminbi over the last 90 days. I suspect as Afghanistan moves through its transition over the next 48 hours that western investors will wait for the dust to settle on where yields Afghani-denominated securities will fall out.
After two decades in Afghanistan, the lightening quick deterioration in the ability of the government to maintain control of its territory speaks negatively about the United States as a stabilizing force in the region. That accolade right now may belong more in China’s court than the U.S. China has stayed engaged with Afghanistan primarily due to three concerns.
First, the protection of small and medium sized Chinese enterprises in Afghanistan; second, to stop the training of Uygur supporting insurgents from an area of Afghanistan that lies along China’s western border; and third, to maintain a vital component of its Belt and Road Initiative, a policy of transportation and communications infrastructure that facilitates the transfer of resources to China.
China is Afghanistan’s largest investor, having provided Afghanistan with telecom equipment and other telecom infrastructure. China extracts oil in the Amu Daya basin, and also mines lithium and copper, both essential to providing telecommunications equipment and facilities.
Geographically, Afghanistan provides China with the shortest route between China, the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and the Arabian Sea, important for cost effective movement of trade.
And because China has shown no interest in “rebuilding Afghanistan”, including altering its political, social, or ideological institutions, it has been able to maintain a dialogue with the Taliban, important now more than ever as Afghanistan sees a change in leadership.
The takeaway: Traders should monitor the developing government relationships and take note of relative changes in income, prices, commodity availability, and interest rates.
Alton Drew
Sources:
OANDA
Slowly but surely, China is moving into Afghanistan (trtworld.com)
For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.
15 June 2021
News from the Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange
On 28 June 2021, the Government of St. Lucia will auction a 180-day Treasury bill estimated to raise ECS$10 million. The Bank of St. Lucia and First Citizens Investment Services are the broker firms.
Food for Thought: On China and the Caribbean
The NATO and G7 meetings held one thing in common other than the membership of a number of rich industrialized countries: China. While the NATO meeting fell short of calling China an “adversary”, the consensus, especially among the leading industrialized nations, is that China, at a minimum, is a competitive economic threat.
One example of its economic threat is Huawei, a Chinese telecom equipment provider accused of ties to the Chinese military. Huawei provided less expensive telecom equipment to Europe in direct competition with American telecom equipment providers. The United States, which banned use of Huawei equipment from its telecom networks, chided its European allies for allowing a threat to privacy via Huawei equipment. Turning a back on Huawei expectedly gives US companies a wider door to enter through into European markets.
It may be too early to determine the impact on the Caribbean a widening rift between China and the US may present. By our estimate, using CIA data, at least 12 Caribbean countries have a trading relationship (import only, export only, or both) with China. Whether the Caribbean will tack away from a relationship with China as a result of moves made by the G7 or NATO remains to be seen.
Import-Export relationship between CARICOM nations and China
Source: CIA World Factbook
| Country | Import from China | Export to China |
| St. Lucia | No | No |
| Trinidad and Tobago | Yes (USD366 million) | Yes (USD595 million) |
| Suriname | Yes (USD168 million) | No |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | Yes (USD23.7 million) | No |
| Montserrat | No | No |
| Guyana | Yes (USD8 million) | No |
| Grenada | Yes (USD16 million) | No |
| Dominica | Yes (USD12 million) | No |
| Belize | Yes (USD11 million) | No |
| Barbados | Yes (USD136 million) | No |
| Antigua and Barbuda | Yes (USD39 million) | No |
| The Bahamas | No | Yes (USD33 million) |
| Cayman Islands | No | No |
| Haiti | Yes (USD795 million) | No |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | No | No |
| Jamaica | Yes (USD804 million) | No |
| British Virgin Islands | No | No |
| Turks and Caicos | No | No |
| Bermuda | No | No |
| Anguilla | No | No |
Foreign exchange rates of interest
Source: OANDA
| Currency Pairs | Rates as of 11:15 am AST 15 June 2021 |
| XCD/EUR | 0.3057 |
| XCD/GBP | 0.2625 |
| XCD/USD | 0.3704 |
| XCD/CAD | 0.4500 |
| XCD/NGN | 152.3900 |
| XCD/CNY | 2.3692 |
| XCD/PLN | 1.3776 |
| XCD/PEN | 1.43619 |
Links to follow ….
Caribbean Development. A high-level panel of government and business leaders will explore the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Caribbean in the opening seminar of the Caribbean Development Bank’s (CDB) 51st Annual Meeting. https://www.caribank.org/newsroom/news-and-events/cdb-annual-meeting-seminar-discuss-policies-economic-recovery-covid-19-and-more-resilient-caribbean
Interbank. China’s interbank treasury bond index in net price opened at 982.99 points Tuesday, lower than the previous close of 983.65 points, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. http://www.china.org.cn/china/Off_the_Wire/2021-06/15/content_77568539.htm
Interbank. The Korea Interbank Offered Rates (KORIBOR) as posted by Yonhap Infomax, the financial news and information arm of Yonhap News Agency, at 11:00 a.m. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210615004100320
Banks. Billionaire investor Mark Cuban is very bullish on the future of DeFi, or decentralized finance, and DAOs, or decentralized autonomous organizations. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/mark-cuban-banks-should-be-scared-of-defi.html
Alton Drew 