Alton Drew

Reading the shift …

Category: European Central Bank

Interbank market news scan: Federal Reserve lists principles for reducing its balance sheet; foreign exchange rates of interest …

Posted by on in Federal Reserve, foreign exchange, European Central Bank

Interbank, Federal Reserve. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve reiterated that its primary policy tool for managing the money supply, maintaining stable prices, and pursuing maximum employment is the federal funds rate, the interbank, overnight rate banks apply when lending reserves to each other. The Board will reduce its balance sheet of assets after its initial raising of the federal funds rate which markets expect to occur in March 2022. Legal advisors should keep this in mind when reviewing or counseling clients on foreign exchange contracts. To see the Board’s release, follow this link.

Interbank, US Dollar. Analysts are expecting further slippage in the euro versus the dollar given the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve’s decision last Wednesday on interbank overnight lending rates (the federal funds rate). Analysts are seeing the EUR/USD falling to support levels as low as 1.10. Legal advisors should keep this in mind when advising clients on foreign exchange contracts. To see this article, follow this link.

Interbank, SONIA. As banks transition from LIBOR to alternative interest rate benchmarks, here is a discussion on implications from and an update on the status on making the change from LIBOR.

Interbank, European Central Bank. The ECB issues a statement on historically low number of counterfeit banknotes. Approximately 347,000 banknotes were withdrawn from circulation. To see this article, follow this link.

Foreign exchange rates of interest to Atlanta’s immigrant community

EUR/USD=1.1180

GBP/USD=1.3406

USD/MXN=20.7530

USD/GTQ=7.5208

USD/NGN=414.8790

USD/GHS=6.1895

USD/VND=22,633.9000

USD/JPY=115.0500

USD/INR=75.1226

USD/BTC=0.00003

USD/ETH=0.00041

Source: OANDA

European Central Bank sees growth moderating in 2022

Posted by on in European Central Bank, foreign exchange, interbank market

The Interbank

The European Central Bank today released its update on economic, financial, and monetary developments. The ECB sees growth moderating into 2022 primarily due to supply bottlenecks.  Global supplier delivery times remain high as food and energy upward price pressure remains in place.  These pressures reflect a rebound from the low-price environment spawned by the pandemic.

While the ECB credits higher vaccination rates for the support of increased consumer spending, higher energy prices may be offsetting the increase in spending.  Shortages of materials, equipment, and labor is holding back manufacturing.  And on the labor front, the number of people in the workforce and hours worked still remain under pre-pandemic levels.

EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.1468.

Traders interested in the full report should go to https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/html/eb202107.en.html.

The Bank of Mexico maintained its overnight target rate at 4.75%.  No written statements by the Bank have been released at the time of this writing.

MXN/USD is currently trading at $20.5698.

Regulatory News

No major regulatory events impacting traders or broker-dealers this morning.

Traders should contact their brokers for more information on how foreign exchange rates may react to events described in the above blog post.

Alton Drew

11.11.2021

Disclaimer: The above is provided for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial or legal advice or as creating an agreement to provide financial or legal advice.

Interbank Market News Scan: The ECB philosophy behind a central bank digital currency …

Posted by on in central banks, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve

Interbank, European Central Bank. Fabio Panetta, member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, presented on the feasibility and deployment of a central bank digital currency.  The main goal of a central bank digital currency, according to the presentation, should be to maintain “public access and full usability of central bank money in a world where consumers and firms are turning increasingly toward electronic payments.”

Of interest to foreign exchange traders in regards to a central bank digital currency is the central bank’s concern about maintaining the convertibility of private money to central bank cash, future cross-border, cross-currency possibilities including making cross-border payments easier.

Since central bank digital currencies are still in the nascent stage, especially in the United States, the concerns and possibilities are still a way off but should be on the minds of currency traders.

Traders should contact their brokers for more information on how foreign exchange rates may react to events described in the above blog post.

Interbank, Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve System governor Michelle Bowman warned of housing market generated inflation yesterday during remarks before a Women in Housing and Finance public policy luncheon.  Governor Bowman noted significant increases in home prices since 2020 as well as increased prices in the rental markets.

Foreign exchange traders should take note of the temporal nature of inflation overall.  Governor Bowman notes that shortages in labor, land lots, and materials have been fueling housing supply and likely supporting the higher prices being seen in the markets.  Because housing is a large component of the American economy, higher housing prices are fueling inflationary pressures.  But while Governor Boman did not use the term “transitory”, her remarks did introduce at least two factors that may limit the duration of higher prices: the aforementioned supply issues and the expiration of forbearance on mortgage payments.  Traders should be aware that as supply constraint on labor and material evaporate, increases in housing supply may drive down prices in the longer run.  Also, the expiration of forbearance and other stimulative measures may result in lower housing prices as well.

Traders should contact their brokers for more information on how foreign exchange rates may react to events described in the above blog post.

Disclaimer: The above is provided for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial or legal advice or as creating an agreement to provide financial or legal advice.

Alton Drew

9.11.2021

Interbank Market News Scan: Dipping my toes into the USD-JPY market

Posted by on in Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, foreign exchange

For the past week or so I have been trading the binary options in the GBP-USD market.  I focused on this market primarily because the US and UK sessions intersect during the first few hours of the American session allowing me some time to do some reading and research before making a trade.  Time spent on another project, however, meant missing the opportunity to trade during those sessions, so I decided to dip my toes into the Asian session.

I admit to having had some hesitancy toward trading during the Asian session.  I am less familiar with Japanese monetary policy and the yen.  Their central bankers get a lot less play in the business media than central bankers at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, or the Bank of England which means reduced insights into Japanese monetary policy.  But I find that there is upside that can result from fear: the ever-present opportunity to learn.

The first stop in taking an opportunity to learn included a visit to the Bank of Japan’s website where I identified data on the BOJ’s overnight bank rates.  I then compared these rates with the overnight bank rates of the Federal Reserve.   Banks with accounts at the Federal Reserve are getting much better rates than those with accounts at the BOJ.

The business media has been reporting on Japan’s sub-zero rate policy for years, heck decades, so there was no surprise on my part when Bloomberg data showed the wide difference in rates between the U.S. and Japan.  The 150-point spread between U.S. 10-year government bonds and Japanese 10-year government bonds supported in my mind opportunities for those holding yen to move to the dollar thus increasing dollar demand and driving up the exchange rate between the two currencies.

Business media, in my opinion, paints the USD-JPY pair as volatile which I guess can cause some trepidation for traders trying to guess where the exchange rate is going to go.  I am growing increasingly suspect of most business media.  I see them more as purveyor of narrative instead of distributor of fact.  They are as noisy as their political media cousins and contribute to the noise and trepidation I mentioned earlier.

Fortunately, there are outlets such as Daily FX and FX Street that provide analysis that cuts through the noise. Using analysis from these outlets I was able to establish a probable floor of USD-JPY=112.00 and a probable ceiling of USD-JPY=113.50, betting that during a four-hour contract the exchange rate would exceed 113.20 prior to the contract’s expiration.

My biggest takeaway from last night’s trade was one should not allow fear and lack of knowledge to limit the opportunity to profit.  Seek out good information sources and pursue a path of knowledge.  Knowledge helps to process out the fear.

Alton Drew

12.10.2021  

Interbank Market News Scan: Nothing from the European Central Bank indicates the EUR-USD won’t stay flat …

Posted by on in Euro, Europe, European Central Bank, foreign exchangeLeave a comment

The EUR-USD market …

The EUR-USD was trading around 1.1813 about 10:00 pm EST and I read nothing out of the European Central Bank this week that could impact the interbank market today.  The most recent comments out of the ECB regarding the European economy came during a speech by Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board.

Ms Schnabel’s general assessment was that the economy is brightening for the Euro area and although Covid-19 is resurging, consumers and businesses appear upbeat about future economic performance.  Inflation, the universal economic buzzword, is at 3% per an August print, thus exceeding the ECB’s two-percent target rate.  Inflation, according to Ms Schnabel, is likely to keep growing through the end of 2021.

Meanwhile, real interest rates in Germany remain in the negative.  The rate for the ECB deposit facility is at -.50%.  This is the policy rate at which bank excess funds are deposited overnight with the ECB.  Banks, in essence, are paying the ECB to hold their excess funds.  

Contrast the ECB rate with the overnight interbank rate (fed funds rate) of the Federal Reserve which currently has a target rate of 0 to .25%. 

Ms Schnabel warned against premature tightening of rates.  She noted that while inflation may increase through the rest of the year, it may abate around the beginning of 2022.  She also cautioned that while inflation appears high, the economy is coming off of a pandemic-induced slow down and in real terms inflation is still low.

Ms Schnabel was kind enough not to use the word, “transitory.”

Otherwise, the ECB so far has been mum. So has the Federal Reserve as it gets ready for its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 22-23.  

Ms Schnabel’s comments also did not veer off from last week’s monetary policy decision to maintain the ECB’s €20 billion in monthly asset purchases while modifying the pace at which the ECB would make asset purchases.

Data from OANDA has the EUR-USD flat lining since 14 September but also reflecting a slight raise in the exchange rate since Ms Schnabel’s speech. While I do not expect the rate to fall below 1.1800, I don’t see an argument for now as to why the exchange rate will not continue to fall below 1.1800 by month’s end.  Like everyone else, I do not have a crystal ball.

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