I don’t see Stacey Abrams challenging Kemp in 2022

Sitting here watching the movie Moneyball for the first time.  What struck me was the approach to putting together a winning team, an approach based on statistics and the idea of buying hits, runs, and on-base.  I think that is an approach Georgia’s Democrats have to take in 2022 when they make another attempt at taking Georgia’s governorship.  They will need a candidate that is not afraid to think outside of the box, and thinking outside of the box means finding a candidate not afraid to go after voters that live outside of metro Atlanta.

It won’t be Stacey Abrams.

Stacey Abrams had the persona of that co-worker you are glad to see on a Monday morning.  She had the voice and smile that would tell a co-worker, “We can do this. It’s just Monday. We got this. The week will be fine.”  This positive attitude came across when she attempted to sell Georgia voters on the idea of expanding Medicaid to a larger population of Georgia’s residents while employing over 50,000 more residents necessary for delivering expanded services.

What got me for months were the optics.  I quite frankly did not care for the over-educated, “people of color” urbanites that made up a significant portion of her support.  This group, and their cadre of west coast financial donors never struck me as knowing much of anything about Atlanta outside of I-485, thus knew nothing much about Georgia, especially the state’s rural base.  With this bunch making up her entourage, I could never see Ms. Abrams getting the full trust of rural residents.

The flip side to my argument is that Ms. Abrams got 1,923,685 votes, just over 48% of the total vote.  This is indicative that a significant portion of Georgia’s voting population bought into Ms. Abrams’ messaging.  Ms. Abrams could bank this new found political capital via her newly formed political action committee, Fair Fight Georgia.  According to The San Francisco Bay View, Fair Fight Georgia will have as its aim to pursue accountability in Georgia’s elections along with insuring integrity in maintaining Georgia’s electoral rolls.

But what to do with 1,923,685 votes worth of political capital?  I expect Ms. Abrams to remain in Georgia and the nation’s public eye and challenge U.S. Senator David Perdue for his senate seat in 2020.  She has already shown herself a formidable competitor in a statewide race.  Challenging Mr. Perdue seems the next logical step, especially on her way to pursuing what I believe could be her ultimate goal, the United States presidency.



Black Georgia voters opting for history versus substance

Dropped by the polling spot in the West End Atlanta to cast a vote.  Gentleman behind me, African American, begins to harp quietly but confidently about the historic moment; the opportunity to send Georgia’s first black American female to the governor’s office.

I held my tongue.  I am not impressed by the notion of symbolic voting, the need to be the “first black this” or the “first black that.”  It has garnered black Americans nothing of substance other than a brief few hours of pride for the onesie-twosies.

Should Stacey Abrams pull off a victory, whether tonight or in a run-off, she will have her ability to negotiate across the aisle challenged by a legislature dominated by Republicans who reside mostly outside of Interstate 485. Democrats don’t appear to have invested any time in providing Ms. Abrams a legislature that will work with her or at least a legislature with enough Democrats to provide her some leverage.

My instincts tell me, however, that Ms. Abrams will be satisfied with milking the “Oh, the Republicans are blocking me at all turns because I am a black woman” argument. Given the amount of support she has received from liberal political action committees outside of the Peach State, the end game may be for Ms. Abrams to survive long enough to be a viable candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2024.

I expected Kasim Reed to make a play for statewide office, but it seems that liberals have made Ms. Abrams their “people of color” poster child and hung their hopes on her.

For this to come to fruition, of course, Ms. Abrams will have to win.