While I believe that the FOMC will vote to raise rates, how much the rates increase by will be a decision driven by politics as it is by economics. The United States is entering the silly season of campaigning that runs up to the 2024 presidential election. As the expenditures stemming from President Biden’s infrastructure spending and financial support for Ukraine seep through the economy, the last thing the Administration wants to contend with is increased financial stress on American households. Mr Biden would prefer to see the Federal Reserve bring a pause to the inflation fight by the end of this spring, putting the pain into the past as soon as possible while crafting a narrative that places the full blame for inflation on the central bank.