Capital. The true digital divide

A couple early morning thoughts on the digital divide.  So far the digital divide narrative has occupied two schools of thought that are not necessarily opposed to each other.

Race and the Digital Divide

The first school of thought revolves around race.  Given that within the black American community there is a higher level of poor households, affordability is keeping blacks from accessing the internet via high-speed broadband infrastructure.  If blacks do not have the income to sustain a broadband business model, then internet access providers are less likely to deploy facilities in poor neighborhoods.  Lack of deployment in these neighborhoods may result in a barrier to valuable information that may lead to greater economic opportunities, according to advocates seeking to close this gap.

Rural Communities and the Digital Divide

The second school of thought revolves around rural communities.  The argument is that lower population density as compared to urban areas makes deploying broadband access facilities in rural areas more expensive.  In addition, terrain, such as that faced by internet access providers in mountain states, has traditionally added to the problem of higher costs to provide broadband access facilities.

An Overlooked Divide

There is another divide, one that is often overlooked and it has to go to what is known as “first-mover advantage.” The real value generated by the internet is the ability to extract, analyze, package, and distribute information, and have that information be available digitally forever.  The focus on a gap between facilities deployed in black neighborhoods versus facilities deployed in white neighborhoods or the gap between rural community deployment versus urban community deployment goes to seeking out new suppliers of information.  The civil right veneer that has been placed over the broadband racial divide hides this supply-side characteristic from the policy debate.  It has also created the opportunity for the political left to craft an electoral package that can be sold to voters.

It is the other side of the equation, the production side, that, in my opinion holds more value.  When we look at the history of the internet, particularly the period when the internet was commercialized, its players included white venture capitalists; Web 1.0 internet service providers, i.e. AOL, CompuServ, Mindspring, etc.; and dial-up access providers such as BellSouth.

Black Americans could always access information from analog sources, i.e. television; print media; or word of mouth, but the efficient extraction, cataloging,  indexing, aggregation, and distribution of information via the internet were the domain of companies invested in and managed by whites.  As whites continued to level their first-mover advantage, this gap between producer/owner of capital and consumer continued to grow.

Capital not only seeks a vacuum, it also seeks a return.  Returns from investing in black or even rural communities were not going to be as high as returns invested in affluent neighborhoods, neighborhoods whose residents probably owned shares in the very companies that commercialized the internet in the first place.  Closing the “digital divide” means first closing the capital divide.

What will Government Do Next?

Government will do nothing from a capital perspective to close the digital divide. The Federal Communications Commission has a number of universal service funding initiatives designed to encourage mobile and fixed broadband deployment in rural areas; to facilitate the delivery of health care via broadband; and to reduce the costs incurred by low-income consumers for accessing and maintaining high-speed broadband service.  By subsidizing the consumer demand for broadband services, the Commission hopes to encourage the delivery of broadband services.  But again, the focus is on consumer demand, not bridging the capital gap.

The philosophical underpinnings of the American economy, where capital is to flow freely to its best use may prohibit government from taking any concrete action for closing a capital gap.  If blacks or rural residents had sufficient capital to purchase, construct, or maintain broadband access facilities, using their intimate knowledge of their communities to distribute services, we might see a decrease in the gap.  We should expect that government will stay on a path of incentivizing capital investment in infrastructure development versus trying to repair capital discrepancies via a capital transfer.

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As machines become self-aware, will they need privacy law?

As machines become self aware, will they need legal protection? Maybe the question is a bit too far ahead, but discussions regarding artificial intelligence and machine learning had me contemplating the relationship between man and machine thirty or fifty years from now. At this stage I have admittedly more questions than answers but that is what exploration is all about. Given my interest in what I term pure digital information trade where machines are collecting, analyzing, and trading data and information among themselves without human intervention, and the potential for machines to become sentient, I am considering what the legal relationship will be between man and machine. Will man consider the self aware machine an “equal” in terms of sentient rights or will the machine continue to be what it is today: a tool and a piece of property?

What do we mean by “sentient?”

Sentient, according to Webster’s New World Dictionary, is defined as “of or capable of perception; conscious. To be conscious is to have an awareness of oneself as a thinking being. As thinking beings we formulate ideas or thoughts and either act on them or exchange the ideas and thoughts with others through some communications medium. Can machines do this? No.

Machines are not aware of themselves. They can only take commands; follow their programming; respond to patterns. Their creator and programmer, man, does not even have a full understanding of the human brain, currently the only place where consciousness resides. Without an understanding of the brain and the consciousness it generates, replicating consciousness within a machine would be impossible.

But if machines became sentient ….

By 2020, futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil believes that we will have computers that emulate the brain and by 2029 the brain will be “reversed engineered”; with all areas mapped and copied so that the “software” necessary for emulating all portions of the brain can be produced. In addition, Mr. Kurzweil believes that as information technology grows exponentially, machines will be able to improve on their own software design and that by 2045 the intelligence of machines will be so advanced that technology will have achieved a condition he calls “singularity.”

But if this singularity is achieved; if this state of self-recursive improvement is achieved, where a machine is able to examine itself and recognize ways to improve its design; to improve upon itself, then how should humans treat the machine at that point?

Since my interest is in pure digital data trade markets, I would like to know how humans will treat machines capable of interconnecting with each other over the internet and exchanging machine-generated information and value without human intervention? Will they receive the same level of privacy humans today seek regarding their personal data? Given the exponential growth Mr. Kurzweil references, will privacy law even matter to a sentient machine capable, probably, of outperforming the technology of the State? What type of regulatory scheme might government create in order to mitigate this scenario?

The year 2045 is only around the corner….

Verizon moves ahead with 5G

Verizon yesterday announced the rollout of Verizon 5G Home internet service. Verizon claims in its press release that it is the first company to introduce 5G commercially in the United States with service to be provided in parts of Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, and Sacramento.

Given the lack of uniform industry standards, being first to provide 5G service means moving ahead with the service based on its own proprietary 5G standards.  According to Hans Vestberg, Verizon’s chief executive officer,  “To be first, we encouraged others in the ecosystem to move more quickly at every step. We appreciate the partnership of network equipment makers, device manufacturers, software developers and chip makers in reaching this critical milestone. The entire wireless industry gets to celebrate.”

Verizon will start taking consumer orders for the service on 13 September 2018 with the service taking effect on 1 October 2018.

SDx Central, a technology content provider and research firm, estimates that the first phase of 5G standards will probably not materialize until late 2018 when industry can base concrete standards on high profile cases. However, Verizon sees no concerns with moving forward with its own proprietary standards.  Rather, it sees itself as a leader on moving the industry further along the journey to rolling out 5G. According to company spokesman John O’Malley:

“The 3GTF standard we developed actually accelerated the adoption of the international standard last December — two years earlier than most people thought it would happen. And now, device, infrastructure and other technology leaders are developing products that will run on that standard. And when those products and technologies are available, we’ll evolve our offerings as well. The entire industry is working together on this.”

Although Verizon did not mention the impact of its 5G rollout on global trade, broadband communications has been described as an important platform for international commerce, particularly for small and medium enterprises.

In 2013, the World Economic Forum determined that 95% of businesses located in countries that are part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has an online presence. The internet in general and social media in particular allowed these businesses to market products globally and reach customers outside of their regions.

Joshua Meltzer of the Brookings Institution in a paper addressing the internet as a platform for international trade said the following:

“Significantly, the Internet is creating new opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and for businesses in developing countries to engage in international trade and become part of the global economy. By providing opportunities to access business inputs such as cheaper telecommunications, strategic information on overseas markets, legal and consulting services, and cloud computing, SMEs and developing country firms are now more than ever able to become globally competitive. With a website, these firms can now engage internationally, reaching customers and communicating with suppliers all across the world.”

Could we see further integration of the aforementioned cities into global trade as a result of this rollout?