A quick thought: Quieted by a 50-50 Senate split …

“A 50-50 split in the Senate with a reduced Democratic majority in the House not only puts the GOP back into their familiar position as “obstructionist”, but gives Biden-Harris some cover to not present as progressive an agenda as the Far Left would like to see. Centrist and center-right senators like Angus King, Susan Collins, Rand Paul, and Joe Manchin will take more of the spotlight.

Mitch McConnell will still play the “parliamentarian” role, using Senate rules to delay floor debates, filibuster, or, if he is lucky, table certain items.

The last thing Kamala Harris will want, as president of the Senate, is the optics of having to do a yay or nay on any progressive legislation. She’d rather Collins, Paul, and Company head off any controversial bills before they hit the floor for a vote. She can’t afford to enter the 2024 presidential race inaccurately labeled a progressive.

Commodity, currency, and energy traders may get over their initial nervousness about the volatility a liberal Congress may introduce when they realize that the “adults” are finally in charge … 

Are currency traders willing to pay more for the US dollar in face of US election? ….

Capital abhors a vacuum and even with the U.S. general election three days away, capital will try to cut through the campaign noise and seek out a return. From a political and legal event perspective, traders should assess the strength of legal challenges to voting, especially challenges raised by the Republican Party.

Republicans and Democrats have been building their legal teams for over a year and both will be on the lookout for voting irregularities including evidence of voter suppression or voter fraud. Republicans are expected to challenge authenticity of mail-in ballots and the deadlines for when these ballots are expected to be received. Traders should be particularly mindful of the intensity of Republican challenges given that incumbent president Donald J. Trump is running behind Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden in national polls.

Real Clear Politics has Mr Biden polling at 51.3% versus Mr Trumps 43.5% during the period 21 October to 30 October 2020. PredictIt is pricing a .65 probability of a Democratic takeover of the White House versus a probability of .40 that the Republican Party maintains control of the Oval Office.

But the foreign exchange markets appear to see the value of the US dollar priced in various currencies increasing as we get closer to the election.

Country/Currency24 October25 October26 October27 October28 October29 October30 October31 October
Mexico (MXN)20.921020.840820.847620.966720.927121.169421.310121.2962
Canada (CAD)1.313611.311911.312201.318291.317761.325551.332211.33172
Japan (Yen)104.72104.66104.67104.87104.61104.30104.44104.49
China (Yuan)6.677336.676806.676806.699166.705156.716726.711576.68746
Eastern Caribbean Dollar2.702.702.702.702.702.702.702.70
Brazil (BRL)5.601805.618405.618185.621155.644745.722425.758215.76506
Price of US Dollar in selected exchange rates 24 October to 31 October 2020

With the exception of Japan and the Eastern Caribbean, the prices in foreign currency offered for a US Dollar have been inching up over the last week. Traders in the above nations reflect a number of major US trading partners and the increase in the amount traders in these countries are willing to offer a seller of the US dollar tells me that at a minimum, they have positive expectation in the potential for growth in the US and that public policies offered by Mr Biden might not deter expected growth or value of the dollar.

Again, traders should be on the lookout for any legal, legislative, or regulatory actions that thwart the ability of Mr Biden to garner enough votes to win the Electoral College.

Additional source: OANDA.com

Democrats, Republicans, Blacks, and the River Jordan …

After a 40-year trek in the desert, Moses took his people to the river Jordan. They crossed. He didn’t. America has been on a 40-year readjustment ever since real wages, particularly for people in the labor class, started to flatten. By 2008, a major readjustment in the economy spawned the first great threat to a Baby Boomer class entering retirement.

This widening gap between labor and capital compounded by a meltdown in the financial markets and the “I’ve had it up to here” exasperation by Rick Santelli on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gave birth to a Tea Party that saw America falling further and further under the sway of the banks.

The promises of “hope and change” extended to the voting public by a young president from Illinois did not translate into any policies that would close this gap. On the contrary, the banks were provided with three legislated mechanisms (TARP, HOPE, and Dodd-Frank) that would strengthen their balance sheets versus sending alleged perpetrators of the alleged economic fraud to jail.

Forty years after the beginning of The Gradual Descent, Baby Boomers now see either no yields on their accumulated cash or worse, see a Federal Reserve willing to go the European route by asking investors to “pay”, via negative yields, the banks for holding their cash. As if to rub the salt further into the wounds, voters were now being asked by the wife of the leading architect of a corporatized Democratic Party, a former member of an Administration that turned a blind eye to the widening gap between capital and labor, to continue the work of the last Administration.

While the 2016 popular vote favored the Democratic candidate by a delusional and deluded 3 million votes, the Tea Party reached out from the Flyover States and gave the electoral college decision to a reality TV star, an admitted political outsider (and genital grabber) who the Republican Establishment could not control and the Democratic Party loathed.

While the 2016 election’s presidential winner promised to “Make America Great Again”, the four years since that victory has produced a further diversion by the financial markets from the real economy, a diversion that is setting the table for what I believe will be political calamity for the American polity in 2024 and 2028.

Whether the 2020 Democratic candidate wins in 47 days will make no difference to what is to come in 2024 and 2028. Fringe elements of the Democratic Party in concert with non-party societal fringe elements who still want a government (they are mistakenly referred to as anarchists) will be given license to break up a Democratic Party whose very Establishment is too weak to keep the far left in check. The Big Tent will implode and the implosion will give western states pause to consider seriously the possibility of seceding from a political economy too undisciplined to maintain a union.

America’s trek to its river Jordan is coming to end. Some people, particularly blacks, will not want to cross the river, preferring to hold on to a myth of America that was never intended to materialize. Blacks are too rule-based and a rule-based people hanging on to myths won’t survive a new frontier as the collective they now know. Only capital will make the crossing.

Election 2016 was the doorman at the restaurant. Election 2020 is the server. Elections 2024 and 2028 will provide the feast for those who recognized early the emergence of a new American order. “You should move to a small town, somewhere the rule of law still exists. You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is a land of wolves now.” — ‘Alejandro’

Taking over the Democratic Party by leaving the Democratic Party…

No matter who wins the presidential election this fall, by the end of summer 2021, all those corporations promising investment in the black community will have reneged on said promises. The existing political-economic model was never designed to generate said promises. Even if implemented, the matrix of existing political-economic rules cannot sustain these promises.
Unfortunately for the Afro-Diaspora, none of its representatives in Congress have proven themselves bold enough or adept enough to create a coalition necessary for passing radical legislation that authorizes the “Fourth Branch” to take the necessary administrative steps to change the model. The steps voters will have to take is to clean these leaders out along with their younger progeny and heirs who hope to take their place. A one-swoop, multi-generational housecleaning is needed.
In other words, any under-40 aspiring politician who parrots the hat-in-hand, “massa hook me up” mantra of the current old heads in power needs to be discouraged from even running for county dog catcher much less a seat in government.
The Marines have a saying. We don’t care if you are a lawyer, doctor, engineer, mechanic, or administrative assistant. You are first and foremost a fighter. The Diaspora needs a new narrative based on critical thinking and less emotion. It is that narrative that will energize and guide the street fighters the Diaspora needs.
Politics is a blood sport. This is something the Republicans, and in particular members of the Hard Right, have come to realize. This is why, although their views are allegedly held by a minority but significant amount of the population, they have been able to hold significant sway over Congress, the White House, and state elections. They don’t have a big tent. They have a focused headquarters company of political operations and strategists.
Unlike Democrats who have conflated diversity in the rank and file to mean having multiple voices espousing multiple narratives, the GOP speaks with relatively one voice (although some will say the current one voice is the wrong voice).
Democrats have too many “Karens, Chads, and Biffs trying to lead and too many Keishas, Leroys, and Jeromes trying to impersonate them. The “Big Tent” needs to be cleaned out.
In all this confusion, head faking, and delusion, the promises of so called “equality” will fade away, and reality will raise its annoying head.
Chaos, however, should not be looked upon with despair. Rather, this is an opportunity for the Diaspora to create what I term ‘controlled anarchy.’ Rather than stepping in and trying to save the Chad, Becky, Biff, Karen-led Democrats, the Diaspora should clean its own house and then implement a plan of arms length manipulation of the Democratic Party with the end game of getting the Party back to its original mission: to serve the interest of the common man.
As the economy changes to a model that is further opposite of the needs of the average Afro-Diaspora man and woman trying to make their way, it is time for Afro people to stop trying to equate to or be white, and create a political model that in the end, ironically, serves everyone.