The impact of Build Back Better on the interbank market will be reduced by increasing likelihood Democrats failing to come together on its passage… And Jerome Powell may benefit

According to the Tax Foundation, a public policy think tank, President Biden’s proposed “Build Back Better” plan will generate government revenues of $2.1 trillion over the next ten years.  After accounting for approximately $1 trillion in tax credits for individuals and businesses, the Tax Foundation estimates the US government will net just over $1 trillion in revenues over the ten-year period.  This amount can be whittled down further by accounting for tax revenues recovered from increased compliance activity bringing the estimated bottom-line amount generated to $862 billion.

The economic price for the proposal, according to the Tax Foundation, would be a decrease in long-run gross domestic product by .98%; a reduction in capital stock of 1.84%; a wage rate reduction of .68%; and net loss of 303,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a public policy think tank, estimates that after accounting for offsets and expiration of a number of programs, Mr Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan will require financing of another $2.9 trillion of debt.  The Committee estimates that interest on new debt may be $1.1 trillion by 2031.

Today, the yield on the ten-year Treasury note closed at 1.48%, according to data by Bloomberg, after getting as high as 1.50%.  It is unclear whether the increase in rates accounts for passage tax increases and social welfare spending contained in the “Build Back Better” plan.

The future economic impact from this plan appears to be flat over the next ten years.  A .98 percent reduction in economic growth over ten years is negligible.  So is a loss of 303,000 jobs.  In addition, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is signaling to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party that they may have to settle for a plan that falls short of $3.5 trillion.  If the bill fails in the House, not only is impact a moot concern, but the Democrats and Mr Biden will see a further drop in their political capital where their constituents see them as incapable of delivering on big ideas.

If the package fails, I can see some upside for Jerome Powell, current chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.  Mr Powell’s tenure as chair ends in February 2022.  A failed Biden economic passage brought on by a fractured party may mean that Mr Biden will have to take any opportunity to infuse confidence in the American economy.  So far, the Federal Reserve has been that one constant.  Mr Biden may have no choice, especially going into the mid-term election campaign season, but to re-appoint Mr Powell to another term as head of the Fed.

Alton Drew

27 September 2021  

Interstate Market News Scan: Moving to digital currencies benefit you if it reduces your tax on living …

Suppose your monthly cost for accessing the infrastructure of a political economy came up to $20?  Suppose you looked at nation-states more like trading posts versus some object of irrational affection to which you pledge love and devotion?  Shouldn’t a practical approach to living in a political economy involve a resident generating a higher return on their physical and intellectual efforts to make a living where that tax for living is severely reduced?

In some ways, nations compete in this manner.  While they may not want to dilute their populations and cultures with outsiders, they want to attract investment into their jurisdictions.  Lower taxes, a reliable legal framework, a stable political environment, and minimal roadblocks to getting capital out of a country help bolster the demand for a nation’s currency.  Given the US dollar’s world reserve status, you can argue that the US scores the highest, on average, on these factors.

There are cracks in the demand for the US dollar that currency merchants should remain mindful of.  America has been experiencing real wage stagnation for over four decades.  Masking that long term trend is the immediate concern that inflation may be getting out of control as the U.S. and the rest of the globe claw out of the pandemic.  But Covid-19 may have sped up the long-expected elimination of certain jobs and has raised the discussion about how the American political economy will adjust to this major shift.

Currency merchants should incorporate these shifts into the valuation of currencies as they continue to make markets.  Currency merchants should not take their eyes off of the growing importance of digital currencies going forward into a Covid-endemic world.  This Covid environment will spawn more value creation from residences and other remote locations.  I will not be surprised to see in the next twenty years a world where more material and goods production happens overseas and payments for that production is made via digital currencies.  A processing plant in Ghana, for example, can be seen accepting Amazon, Google, or Delta Air digital tokens in exchange for product.  Given the networks these commercial entities represent or manage, their tokens could be re-exchanged as payment by the processing plants for other goods and services or exchanged with their local banks for cedi.

Not too far-fetched is the idea that an individual or a business could move their entire commercial enterprise into an Amazon network; an Amazon political economy.  If you can rent a residence using Amazon coin; purchase energy using an Amazon coin; buy food using Amazon coin; and pay a monthly “tax” at a fraction of what you would pay a legacy nation-state, wouldn’t you?

Alton Drew

For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.

Prices

Exchange rates of interest as of 6:44 pm EST

Currency pairExchange rate
AUD/USD*0.7334
EUR/USD*1.1866
GBP/USD*1.3895
USD/CAD*1.2473
USD/CHF*0.9054
USD/JPY*109.6700
USD/MXN*19.8540
USD/BTC+0.0000
USD/ETH+0.0004
Sources: *Reuters +OANDA

Rates reported by the Federal Reserve (Release Date 29 July 2021)

Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.10%

Discount Window:  0.25%

Prime Bank Rate: 3.25%

3-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

6-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

1-year Treasury bill: 0.07%

Treasury note yields; clarification of tax deductions relating to Paycheck Protection Program

As of 9:57 am AST 19 November 2020, U.S. Treasury rates and Federal Funds rates are as follows:

3-month: .08%

6-month: .09%

12-month: .10%

2-year: .17%

10-year: .86%

30-year: 1.58%

Fed Funds Rate: 0.08%

Federal Reserve Target: 0.25%

Prime Rate: 3.25%

Source: Bloomberg

Major political/legal event in the United States

Yesterday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released the following:

The U.S. Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) released guidance today clarifying the tax treatment of expenses where a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has not been forgiven by the end of the year the loan was received. 

Since businesses are not taxed on the proceeds of a forgiven PPP loan, the expenses are not deductible. This results in neither a tax benefit nor tax harm since the taxpayer has not paid anything out of pocket.

If a business reasonably believes that a PPP loan will be forgiven in the future, expenses related to the loan are not deductible, whether the business has filed for forgiveness or not.  Therefore, we encourage businesses to file for forgiveness as soon as possible.

In the case where a PPP loan was expected to be forgiven, and it is not, businesses will be able to deduct those expenses. 

“Today’s guidance provides taxpayers with greater clarity and flexibility,” said Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin.  “These provisions ensure that all small businesses receiving PPP loans are treated fairly, and we continue to encourage borrowers to file for loan forgiveness as quickly as possible.”

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury