Toward Public Policy Support for High-value Trade

21 August 2021

I prefer a society that is biased toward trader/merchants; where one lives on the spread and retains the majority of her earnings.  Wage earning is a fancy term for slavery where many in the labor market are subjugated to selling a precious commodity over which they have illusionary control: time.

The irony is that what one earns for their time is inversely related to the wealth of knowledge they have amassed over time.  Unfortunately for the wage earner, the valuation of their labor is made not by the ultimate end user of their product but by the middle man corporation that employs them.  Rather than selling time to the corporation, time should be another input that labor uses to create and sell their product.

Today’s technology makes such a self-ownership approach increasingly feasible depending on the wage earner’s vocation.  Some of us can transition from wage earner to merchant due to digitalization and that sector of the information/knowledge/problem solving industry that we sit in.  So used are we to selling time that we must now start to think of the utilities, database subscriptions, and equipment costs incurred in producing an information product and sell that product at a sufficient margin; to live via the “carry trade.”

The trader wants a profitable balance sheet, one where she has a healthy surplus.  Bankers that provide liquidity to traders also want traders to enjoy a profitable balance sheet because it assures repayment of leverage.

But bankers also want to fund activities generating high returns and I think to ensure that traders are disciplined enough to seek out information on high return activity, banks will want to assess higher interest rates and other margin requirements in order to weed out low-return low value activity.  The Federal Reserve could encourage high-value search behavior by increasing the fed funds and discount window rates.  The Federal Reserve could also start driving up rates by unwinding its monthly purchases of $120 billion in US Treasury and agency-backed mortgage securities.

Higher rates will encourage living on the spread and the seeking of higher returns.

For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.

Interbank market news scan: Asia buffs up its foreign reserves …

Foreign exchange rates as of 26 February 2021, 8:29 EST

AUS/USD : .7950

GBP/USD: 1.4113

EUR/USD: 1.2193

USD/CAD: 1.2523

USD/JPY: 106.1000

USD/MXN: 20.6400

USD/NOK: 8.3953

USD/DKK: 6.0978

Source: OANDA

Bitcoin and Ethereum rates as of 26 February 2021, 8:29 EST

BTC/USD: 49,968.1

ETH: 1,596.59

Source: OANDA

Interest rates of interest ….

Effective Federal Funds Rate: .07

Prime Rate: 3.25

Discount Window Rate: .25

Two-year Treasury: .12

Ten-year Treasury: 1.38

Thirty-year Treasury: 2.24

Source: Federal Reserve

Follow the links …

Central banks in Asia’s emerging economies added $467.7 billion to their foreign-exchange reserves last year, the most since 2013 when the region’s markets were rattled by the taper tantrum. Asia’s Central Banks Build Taper Tantrum Levels of Reserves (bloombergquint.com)

Interbank market news scan: Will central banks tighten rates sooner than later and beware the reflation narrative …

   Exchange Rate as of 22 February 2021 As of 9:21 am EST Exchange Rate as of 25 February 2021
AUD/USD0.7868 0.7929
USD/CAD1.2613 1.2558
USD/CNY6.4859 6.4548
EUR/USD1.2117 1.2152
USD/INR72.4500 72.2983
GBP/USD1.4001 1.4141
USD/JPY105.4100 105.7300
USD/MXN20.4212 20.4361
USD/DKK6.1342 6.1185
USD/NOK8.4557 8.4322
BTC/USD55,701.5000 49,795.0000
ETH/USD1,955.4000 1,622.5700
Source: OANDA

From the Federal Reserve …

As of February 25, 2021, the Federal Reserve reported the prime bank rate is 3.25%.  The discount window rate is at .25% and the effective fed funds (interbank overnight rate) is at .07%. 

The Federal Reserve also reported the 2-year Treasury yield at .11; the 10-year yield at 1.37%, and the 30-year yield at 2.21%.

Follow the links ….

US futures have turned negative, with European stock markets reversing earlier gains as rising yields continue to weigh on sentiment. Stocks pull back on higher yields (fxstreet.com)

European stocks enjoyed another positive session yesterday, driven once again by the travel, hospitality and commercial real-estate sector. Higher rate concerns put to one side with Europe set for a positive open | CMC Markets

It’s all about that reflation narrative, a narrative that continues to force upward pressure on stocks and downward pressure on the Buck. In our Wednesday call, we did however warn to start expecting more dovish speak out of central banks around the globe, in an effort to slow the pace of the USD decline. The reflation trade narrative [Video] (fxstreet.com)

25 February 2021