Taking a look at the US money supply numbers: Has the political right missed the mark?

Between February 2021 and February 2022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (BOG-Fed) data shows that M1 money supply increased 12.7% or 1.05% per month. When you put this data along side unemployment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the 1.05% monthly increase in money supply accompanies a monthly 3.2% decrease in the unemployment rate.

Inflation is running at a rate of 7.9% between February 2021 and February 2022, according to BLS data. This translates to a roughly 0.65% monthly increase in household expenditures.

And the dollar index which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies has risen 7.3% over the February 2021 to February 2022 period, which translates to 0.60% per month.

I’m not going to attempt a causal analysis here. A cursory view of the money supply and dollar index could lead one to conclude that the relationship between the money supply and the dollar index is less than unitary which could be interpreted as the existence of price elasticity; that buyers of dollars could find other competitive currencies to carry out a trade. I won’t say “carry trade” since I am not looking at bond yields.

The political right has been consistent in pointing out that inflation is reflective of increased money supply, but I cannot say whether the less than unitary response in the inflation rate when compared to the change in money supply indicates that the political right has missed the mark.

Alton Drew

03.04.2022

For consultation on how this political or legal event impacts your foreign exchange trade, request an appointment at altondrew@altondrew.com.

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Disclaimer: The above is provided for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial or legal advice or as creating an agreement to provide financial or legal advice.

Interbank Market News Scan: Biden releases budget; inflation may not be that high next year; Nigeria’s central bank injects liquidity

Interbank, Pakistan, rupee. “The rupee reached a new record low on Monday, selling at 182.19 against the dollar in the interbank market, as political uncertainty triggered by a no-confidence move against Prime Minister Imran Khan weighed on sentiment, dealers said.” See article here. Source: The International News.

Interbank, Nigeria, naira, Access Bank. Similarly, (Access Bank) states that operating expenses at bank-level was up marginally by 2% year on year, showcasing the effectiveness of cost-cutting measures whilst also noting that FX rates on the Interbank market continued upward trend by 6% year on year to stand at N424 per dollar mainly driven by rate adjustments and lean supply. See article here. Source: Nairametrics.

Interbank, Pakistan, rupee. “The buying rate of 1 SAR to PKR was Rs 48.050 and the selling rate of 1 SAR to PKR was Rs 48.850 in the interbank market on Mar 28, 2022.” See article here. Source: BOL News.

Interbank, LIBOR, SOFR. “With a war waging in Central Europe, inflation at 50-year highs and the U.S. central bank looking to raise interest rates multiple times this year, you’d think that the average mortgage banker already has a pretty full plate. But add to the list of woes the Fed’s abortive transition from Libor to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate or SOFR and you have a recipe for disaster later this year.” — Christopher Whalen. See article here. Source: National Mortgage News.

Interbank, Nigeria, open market operations, naira. “In pursuant of its pro economic growth monetary policy the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, increased its net liquidity injection into the interbank money market by 110 per cent  to N770 billion in the first quarter of the year, Q1’22, from N367 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, Q4’21.” See article here. Source: Vanguard Nigeria.

Interbank, U.S., inflation, dollar. “Neuberger Berman expects extreme bond market volatility to stabilise and is counting on opportunities scooping up cheap high-yield and investment grade bonds in the telecom and energy sectors.” See article here. Source: Financial Review.

Interbank, U.S., budget, taxes. “Today, President Joe Biden released the FY2023 Budget to propose critical investments that will prioritize security at home and abroad, bolster the economy, promote health, tackle climate change, and further opportunity for all.” See article here. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Foreign exchange rates and dollar index as of 29 March 2022, 3:20 am GMT

Currency Pair28 March 202229 March 202230 March 202231 March 20221 April 2022
EUR/USD1.098341.09717   
GBP/USD1.317661.31204   
USD/CNY6.365266.37031   
USD/CHF0.930150.93439   
USD/NGN415.25415.181   
USD/ZAR14.527214.6255   
USD/AOA449.768448.000   
USD/INR76.01178.9895   
USD/JPY122.07123.527   
USD/SAR3.745243.74524   
Dollar Index99.0099.04   
Sources: OANDA, MarketWatch

Foreign exchange rates and dollar index as of 6:22 am AST

Currency Pair21 March 202222 March 202223 March 202224 March 202225 March 2022
EUR/USD1.104981.103681.100931.10088 
GBP/USD1.317481.316321.320521.32306 
USD/CNY6.359056.355546.362586.36854 
USD/CHF0.931750.93220.934120.93303 
USD/NGN415.42415.043415.732415.115 
USD/ZAR14.940114.938814.874714.7795 
USD/AOA449.794449.794449.438448.867 
USD/INR75.66375.968575.975976.1238 
USD/JPY119.145119.274120.537121.022 
USD/SAR3.745243.745243.745243.74524 
Dollar Index98.4998.4698.7898.84 
Sources: OANDA, MarketWatch

Foreign exchange rates and dollar index as of 9:40 am AST

Currency Pair21 March 202222 March 202223 March 202224 March 202225 March 2022
EUR/USD1.104981.103681.10093  
GBP/USD1.317481.316321.32052  
USD/CNY6.359056.355546.36258  
USD/CHF0.931750.93220.93412  
USD/NGN415.42415.043415.732  
USD/ZAR14.940114.938814.8747  
USD/AOA449.794449.794449.438  
USD/INR75.66375.968575.9759  
USD/JPY119.145119.274120.537  
USD/SAR3.745243.745243.74524  
Dollar Index98.4998.4698.78  
Sources: OANDA, MarketWatch

Following the fall of US hegemony: Foreign exchange rates and dollar index as of 8:00 pm AST

Currency Pair21 March 202222 March 202223 March 202224 March 202225 March 2022
EUR/USD1.10498    
GBP/USD1.31748    
USD/CNY6.35905    
USD/CHF0.93175    
USD/NGN415.42    
USD/ZAR14.9401    
USD/AOA449.794    
USD/INR75.663    
USD/JPY119.145    
USD/SAR3.74524    
Dollar Index98.49    
Sources: OANDA, MarketWatch

The Caribbean: Foreign exchange rates as of 10:50 am AST

Currency Pair14 March 202215 March 202216 March 202217 March 2022
USD/BSD1.00001.00001.00001.0000
USD/JMD151.469151.847151.451151.49
USD/HTG105.441105.114104.584104.887
USD/DOP54.587554.510754.42454.4181
USD/XCD2.70002.70002.70002.7000
USD/BBD2.00002.00002.00002.0000
USD/TTD6.645496.665676.653046.66022
USD/GYD199.77200.46200.121200.334
USD/VEF428,490.0428,249425,659423,634
Dollar Index98.9198.6798.5998.10
Sources: OANDA, MarketWatch

Asia: Foreign exchange rates as of 10:35 pm AST

Currency Pair14 March 202215 March 202216 March 202217 March 2022
USD/CNY6.334816.358576.370246.35245
USD/JPY117.289117.914118.82118.443
USD/INR76.53276.417176.732175.9642
USD/PKR178.602178.945178.596178.947
USD/BDT84.273684.552384.377484.4727
USD/SAR3.745243.745243.745243.74524
USD/SGD1.361511.36511.365811.36142
USD/MYR4.191474.200534.204844.19564
USD/VND22,874.122,888.522.883.322,877.8
AUD/USD0.728990.723530.71930.72404
NZD/USD0.680550.677950.675660.67951
Dollar Index99.2898.8798.8698.37
Sources: OANDA, MarketWatch

Africa: Foreign exchange rates as of 10:01 am AST

Currency Pair14 March 202215 March 202216 March 202217 March 202218 March 2022
USD/NGN415.34415.241415.161  
USD/GHS7.03247.096087.11765  
USD/ZAR15.024115.074915.1101  
USD/GMD53.290453.245253.1809  
USD/AOA465.372465.372460.64  
USD/UGX3,589.463,593.013,573.67  
USD/RWF1,006.381,007.041,005.52  
USD/KES113.301113.257113.35  
Dollar Index98.9398.7398.57  
Sources: OANDA, MarketWatch