Dear United States. Get Out of the Korean Peninsular. You Lost the War

Watching the press conference being held by President Trump regarding his summit with Chairman Kim. The questions from the press corp are pretty empty. Questions like, “Can we trust North Korea?” “How can you call Mr Kim a talented leader given North Korea’s human rights abuses?” “How will you verify that North Korea has completely denuclearized?” The usual, arrogant blah, blah from empty headed journalists chasing ratings, Emmys, and Peabody awards.

From my view, the real issue is why has the United States not reconciled the current scenario with the fact that its reason for inserting itself into a civil war was bogus? None of these reporters has posed the question, “Why are we here in the first place?” Statists on the left have lobbed criticism at Mr Trump, either in traditional or social media, but none have educated the American public on the underlying flawed philosophy of American faux imperialism. To do so would require Americans to take another look at themselves in the mirror and come to grips with a the idea of taking a foreign policy path that says, “America will keep its nose out of another country’s business.”

The United States lost the Korean War. Let me repeat that. The United States lost the Korean War. It failed at its objective. It should not now be in any position to dictate terms to the winner. It should leave … now. The premise that intervening in the war between North and South Korea was necessary in order to stop the domino effect of communism throughout Asia was bogus to begin with. As your own Robert F. Kennedy surmised, communism eventually feeds on itself. Time proved him right.

Today, you have a state-based capitalist political economy in China poised to take over the space held by the market-based capitalist political economy of the United States. Soon, a number of you will be holding yuan as your own personal reserve currency because Asia and Africa would have switched to it.

America looks like a sleeping drunk old man who has been startled to consciousness. Its influence in Asia is slipping away. It can only buy influence in Africa by selling weapons. Europe laughs at it and is resolved to go its own way. America’s self-righteous sounding commentary on human rights abuses is empty rhetoric given its level of police brutality toward blacks. As we say in the Virgin Islands, “Ah you need to go sid down and shut up.”

Bottom line, America. You lost. Unless you are selling goods and services to a country, you shouldn’t be there. Get out of the Korean peninsular….

Politicians need to familiarize themselves with the new face of labor new technology has created

Too many politicians have been emphasizing employment in the area of technology and not paying enough attention to how technology has changed society and, in some ways, contributes to further divides in society. Nor are politicians demonstrating an understanding of the basic technological platform that underlies the economy and how this platform is evolving in order to produce at increasing efficiencies and higher returns on capital.

The Third Industrial Revolution described by thought drivers such as Jeremy Rifkin encompasses an integration of communications, energy, and transportation networks running on top of the internet of things. The internet of things is a digital world where it is projected in 12 years that 100 billion devices will be connected not just to the internet but to each other.  But this revolution is more than connectivity; it is about productivity and explaining the impact of greater productivity to the voter will be the tricky part for incumbent politicians and new entrants alike.

For example, the Trump Effect post the 2016 general election where markets responded positively to Mr Trump’s election was based on expected deployment of new transportation, energy, and communications infrastructure along with increased gross domestic output and incomes. The technology sector has been an overall darling of the market and politicians have been quick to tout the low hanging fruit of innovative new technology as a potential driver of economic growth.  And the numbers seem to support technology’s prominence.

American Entrepreneurship reported last March that since 2010, employment in the technology sector has expanded by 200,000 jobs annually. Approximately 11.5 million workers are employed by the tech sector, contributing $1.6 trillion to United States gross domestic product. Demand for tech workers is outstripping supply.

But even as demand for technology workers remains strong, the manufacturing sector, the one Mr Trump touts a lot on the continuous campaign stump, is seeing less hiring and ironically increased productivity. Pew Research reports that real employment in manufacturing fell from approximately 17.5 million in 1987 to 12.4 million in 2017, a decrease of 29%. During the same period, the real productivity index for manufacturing increased 81%.

Should politicians spend time providing workers a more balanced picture of the economy by educating workers on the need to pursue skillsets necessary for higher paying tech jobs? Yes, especially if they want to distinguish themselves as more trustworthy and knowledgeable about the economy than their opponent.

Properly educating the American worker (and hopefully garnering more votes as a consequence) will require politicians to explain the “productivity paradox.” In an article posted on Vox.com, Timothy B. Lee explains why the increase in innovation is apparently accompanied by a decrease in productivity. As technology innovates rapidly, progress is made in producing cheaper versions of items that have existed for decades. These items become more abundant with the savings eventually spent on more personal services items, items that are produced in slower growth industries.  Ironically, wages in these personal services areas, such as health care, child care, education, consulting, etc., trend upwards. A smaller number of producers will provide the nation’s material goods while slow growth industries take up a larger share of the national economy.

So, although productivity in manufacturing is increasing, the former factory worker will have to start looking for jobs in the slower growth areas of health, education, child care, and other personal services.  Had Republicans been frank during the 2016 campaign about the changes new technology is creating in the labor market, they would have been able to better neutralize criticisms from the left that current policies from the Trump administration are hurting the very people who voted for him. It is probably too late to make corrections to the lack of messaging on technology to avoid losses in the upcoming midterms but adjusting the narrative right after the midterm elections would be wise.

Donald Trump and James Comey: Does uncouth equate to bad morals and impeachment?

In my best Heath Ledger/Joker voice, “Batman has no jurisdiction.” I think of this line today after reading a report in Reuters about former Federal Bureau of Investigations director James Comey’s assessment of the morality of current president Donald Trump. The book, set for release tomorrow, will detail Mr Comey’s four month tenure in the Trump administration. Mr Comey asserts that Mr Trump is morally unfit to sit in the Oval Office.

The assertion is likely to lift the spirits of many anti-Trump voters who have been hoping that the President’s alleged links to the Russian government will turn into a political noose and lead to an early exit from the White House. Mr Trump has been relatively out of the media spotlight for the past week given the Congressional hearings that were held regarding Facebook’s privacy shenanigans. He has managed to reassert himself quickly into the headlines with last Friday’s missile attack on Syria’s chemical weapon facilities. I suspect that attention will be diverted away from Syria long enough for Democrats to push their talking points and roil up their base.

So far the most tawdry event noted in Mr Comey’s assessment of Mr Trump is an alleged incident involving Mr Trump’s presence in a Moscow hotel room where two prostitutes were allegedly urinating on themselves. Being in the presence of this type of behavior would be off-putting to most Americans. Mr Trump has denied witnessing the event and Mr Comey admits he has no firm evidence the event happened or that Mr Trump was even present if the event happened at all.

One question that comes to mind is, assuming that the event occurred, should the event give buoyancy to arguments from the left that Mr Trump be impeached? My answer is no. Article II, Section 4 of the United States Constitution reads:

“The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”

The event is alleged to have happened in 2013, almost four years before Mr Trump took office. In addition, if watching prostitutes pee on themselves in Moscow is legal, I see a very weak argument for convicting him of a crime. “Batman” has no jurisdiction in Moscow.

Another question I have is, what is immoral behavior and does such behavior disqualify a president? Morals are defined as standards of behavior or beliefs concerning what is and what is not acceptable for a person to do. Morals are personal codes until society expresses its disagreement with them and codifies that dissatisfaction in law or statute. As head of a democratic nation-state, Mr Trump is expected by many Americans to manage his personal code within the parameters of community expectations. For a man who reportedly has no problem expressing a tough guy Queens personality, being a boar may not go over well with a progressive socialite from San Francisco. Such behavior, whether it occurred prior to or during the presidency may considered disqualification as head of state, if not head of government.

Going forward, the allegations will not mean much for capital markets. They do not speak to Mr Trump’s management of public capital or the institutions that manage or influence the allocation or distribution of capital. The allegations do put a further dent in Mr Trump’s ability to persuade, probably the most important power a president has. And in the political marketplace, bad optics drives down a political actor’s brand and market value.

A reining in of the political media should be expected under a nation-state model

Forbes reported today about a statement of work issued by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on 3 April 2018.  The statement of work seeks prospective vendors capable of providing the Department’s National Protection and Programs Acquisition Division with the capabilities to monitor traditional and social media. The specific objective of the services is:

“Services shall enable NPPD/OUS to monitor traditional news sources as well as social media, identify any and all media coverage related to the Department of Homeland Security or a particular event. Services shall provide media comparison tools, design and rebranding tools, communication tools, and the ability to identify top media influencers.”

The statement of work does not get into any specifics as to why the Department would need such a program. It could be one of three reasons. One reason could be a push back by the Trump Administration on what it calls “fake news.” Mr Trump has shown a disdain for what he terms as unfair reporting typically from media perceived to be left leaning. He has no love for CNN, a lack of love expressed with so much disdain that he came out against the Time Warner-AT&T merger, one that is now being challenged by the Trump Justice Department.

The second reason for the proposed statement of work may be to create another tool for dealing with the media attacks a Russian troll service has been accused of. By monitoring media influencers, the United States could make a preemptive strike against journalists, bloggers, broadcasters, etc., that spread fake news and set the stage for divisiveness in American politics.

The third reason I see is that the political media has to be reined in by the nation-state. Part of the nation-state’s political ordering of and for society should include keeping the collective in order by controlling the messaging. While some spin is allowed in order for news organizations to establish some type of brand differentiation, i.e., MSNBC leans liberally forward while FOX is conservatively fair and questionably balanced, the general messages issued by the nation-state via the political media must be uniform enough to keep the masses in line or distracted. Too much spin to the left or to the right creates chaos in the collective, a disturbance in the force that the nation-state cannot afford.

I believe reason three is the purpose for the Department’s statement of work. Some Americans may see the proposal as an attack on a free press, but has the press ever really been free? Except for the occasional “breaking news” (which amounts to a press secretary given their favorite reporter or a reporter they can use the first shot at a story), most political news is initiated by a state actor with the media being tasked for commercial and political reasons for distributing it.

Probably over the weekend we may see some discussion on the meaning of a “free press.” Given that this story is not even trending on Twitter anymore has me wondering how seriously the media is taking the Department’s action.

Trump calls out the big guns at the Mexico-United States border…

A few moments ago, President Donald Trump issued a statement describing his authorization of national guard troops to provide back up for federal customs and border agents along the Mexico-United States border. Mr Trump caused a little confusion on 3 April 2018 during a conference with some Baltic region presidents when he told the press that the Administration was “preparing for the military to to secure our border between Mexico and the United States.” Military was a poor word choice thus the confusion not only in published press reports but on the part of the Mexican government as they considered Mr Trump’s proposal last Tuesday..

Under 18 USC § 1385, no part of the Army or Air Force can be used as a “posse” to execute any U.S. laws. The Department of the Navy has rules that follow Posse Comitatus Act, but I can see a president trying to get around that hole in the law by arguing that the statute does not specifically prohibit the Navy and the Air Force from playing police.

Under 10 USC § 12406, however, the president can “call into federal service members and units of the National Guard of any State in such numbers as he considers necessary to repel the invasion, suppress the rebellion, or execute the laws.”

Mexico may not take too kindly to an implication that their citizens are invading the United States, but a significant number of Americans, particularly those living along the southwest border, may believe that. I don’t see the actions of Mexicans attempting to enter the United States without so much as a visa or passport as being aggressive, especially those who get in front of a border agent and are willing to plea their case for some type of amnesty.

What could be looked at as aggression would be a tragic scenario where a guardsman shoots a foreign national. Gunned down by a federal or state law enforcement agent is one matter. Gunned down by a soldier becomes an international nightmare.

 

Strapped teachers are a clear and present danger in the classroom. They bring their flaws. #guncontrol .@realDonaldTrump

So your elected leaders are recommending that school teachers carry weapons in the classroom. I suspect teachers would be required to purchase permits and guns out of pocket.

There were a few teachers of mine back in junior high and high school that I would not want walking into a classroom strapped. A couple had bad tempers. Who knew what their mental state of being would be when they walked in the classroom. One was a certified alcoholic. One day, he literally shuffled and stumbled onto campus, eyes glazed over at 8:00 in the morning.

The blow-farts that you have in office recommending this outlandish policy fail to consider that teachers are humans and bring their issues with them everyday. Some of them hate teaching and hate their students. An armed teacher doesn’t mean extra security. It means increasing a clear and present danger in the classroom.

Fox News, kneeling, and the #NFL

Took five seconds to watch a Fox News Facebook stream where the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security is discussing security for some event happening in Minneapolis on Sunday around 6:18 pm.

What I found interesting were the live comments in the timeline next to the video. Let’s just say that President Trump via his State of the Union last night has added to the attempts by many to equate “African American” with “anti-American.” A lot of the commenters expressed their displeasure with athletes who want to “kneel before Zod” versus placing their hands over their hearts acknowledging one nation under “God.”

It probably helped him that the Congressional Black Caucus was there to “stare racism in the face” as they did no clapping or standing for any parts of his speech while looking resplendent in all black and kente cloth. That was to be expected. However, in politics, optics always wins and in an economy where most Americans are not enjoying any upside from the surge in Wall Street (with the exception of the last two or three days), Mr Trump has provided certain factions of white America with an insidious excuse to point fingers ….

….fire rises….