Politically, Mr Biden needs the markets’ forward looking indicators to be off. In seven weeks the Democratic Party will be tested in the mid-term elections. Mr Biden is counting on an argument that he is the steward for a recovering economy and that he will need majorities in the House and the Senate to continue his inflation reduction agenda.
For traders, I would expect that increased short term rates will make the dollar more attractive and politically will find Mr Biden having to spin a new and positive narrative around rising rates.
Politically, labor markets will continue to take on some importance, but as the structure of labor continues to change in the face of the growing value of financial assets, labor will play a less important component in determining the strength of the economy.
Labor will be the next “to what end” question.
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