Are currency traders willing to pay more for the US dollar in face of US election? ….

Capital abhors a vacuum and even with the U.S. general election three days away, capital will try to cut through the campaign noise and seek out a return. From a political and legal event perspective, traders should assess the strength of legal challenges to voting, especially challenges raised by the Republican Party.

Republicans and Democrats have been building their legal teams for over a year and both will be on the lookout for voting irregularities including evidence of voter suppression or voter fraud. Republicans are expected to challenge authenticity of mail-in ballots and the deadlines for when these ballots are expected to be received. Traders should be particularly mindful of the intensity of Republican challenges given that incumbent president Donald J. Trump is running behind Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden in national polls.

Real Clear Politics has Mr Biden polling at 51.3% versus Mr Trumps 43.5% during the period 21 October to 30 October 2020. PredictIt is pricing a .65 probability of a Democratic takeover of the White House versus a probability of .40 that the Republican Party maintains control of the Oval Office.

But the foreign exchange markets appear to see the value of the US dollar priced in various currencies increasing as we get closer to the election.

Country/Currency24 October25 October26 October27 October28 October29 October30 October31 October
Mexico (MXN)20.921020.840820.847620.966720.927121.169421.310121.2962
Canada (CAD)1.313611.311911.312201.318291.317761.325551.332211.33172
Japan (Yen)104.72104.66104.67104.87104.61104.30104.44104.49
China (Yuan)6.677336.676806.676806.699166.705156.716726.711576.68746
Eastern Caribbean Dollar2.702.702.702.702.702.702.702.70
Brazil (BRL)5.601805.618405.618185.621155.644745.722425.758215.76506
Price of US Dollar in selected exchange rates 24 October to 31 October 2020

With the exception of Japan and the Eastern Caribbean, the prices in foreign currency offered for a US Dollar have been inching up over the last week. Traders in the above nations reflect a number of major US trading partners and the increase in the amount traders in these countries are willing to offer a seller of the US dollar tells me that at a minimum, they have positive expectation in the potential for growth in the US and that public policies offered by Mr Biden might not deter expected growth or value of the dollar.

Again, traders should be on the lookout for any legal, legislative, or regulatory actions that thwart the ability of Mr Biden to garner enough votes to win the Electoral College.

Additional source:

Foreign exchange execution algorithms. Bringing efficiency but at what price?

Source: Bank of International Settlements

  • Execution algorithms (EAs) – designed to buy or sell foreign exchange according to a set of user instructions – have contributed positively to FX market functioning.
  • As EAs change the way market participants access the FX market and how trades are executed, they also give rise to new challenges.
  • Central banks and market participants must have access to the necessary data, skills and tools to allow them to assess the opportunities and risks of evolving markets.

Execution algorithms – designed to buy or sell a predefined amount of foreign exchange according to a set of user instructions – have seen a rise in usage amid an increasingly decentralised and fragmented trading environment according to a report published today by the BIS Markets Committee.

This has helped support price discovery and market functioning but also has the potential to create new risks, said the report, FX execution algorithms and market functioning.

The report examines the drivers and implications of the increase in EA usage in FX markets. It draws on a unique survey of 70 sophisticated market participants globally and extensive industry-wide outreach, and provides distinctive perspectives on the use of EAs, including by central banks.

Prepared by a study group led by AndrĂ©a M Maechler, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, it concludes that while EAs improve market functioning, they also create new challenges. In particular, they transfer execution risk from dealers to end users; contribute to changing liquidity dynamics and the underlying market structure; and raise the bar for market participants in accessing the data, skills and tools required to navigate this market successfully.

“The report provides an insightful stocktake of the growing use of FX execution algorithms by a broad range of participants in FX markets, and highlights both the benefits and the potential risks of such execution algorithms. This will help market participants gain a deeper understanding of such elements, which are becoming increasingly important in FX markets,” said Jacqueline Loh, Deputy Managing Director, Monetary Authority of Singapore, and Chair of the Markets Committee.

EAs may also create self-reinforcing loops and exacerbate sharp price moves, although initial observations from the Covid-19 pandemic suggest that these risks may be less acute than expected. Still, further research is needed.

“While the focus of the report is on the FX market, many of the findings are also of broader relevance to other fast-paced electronic markets experiencing similar trends. As those markets continue to evolve rapidly, access to high-quality data, novel skills and adequate tools becomes key in this context,” said Ms Maechler.

These issues require broad-based collaboration between the official and the private sectors. The Global Foreign Exchange Committee (GFXC) has already established workstreams on algorithmic trading and disclosures to examine them in detail.

Foreign exchange rates between U.S. and countries with diplomatic presence in Atlanta

As of 11:02 pm EST, 29 October 2020, here is the price of the U.S. Dollar in foreign currency of interest:

1 EUR= 1.17085 USD   1 USD= .85398 EUR

1 XCD (Eastern Caribbean) = 0.37037 USD  1 USD= 2.70 XCD

*1 CHD (Canada)= 0.75053 USD  1 USD= 1.33221 CHD

*1 CHF (Switzerland)= 1.09530 USD   1 USD= o.91281 CHF

*1 ISL (Israel)= 0.29219 USD     1 USD = 3.40283 ISL

*1 ARS (Argentina)= 0.01277 USD    1 USD = 78.2904 ARS

*1 BSD (The Bahamas) = 1.00 USD   1 USD = 1 BSD

*1 ECS (Ecuador)= 0.00004 USD    1 USD = 24,094 ECS

*1 BRL (Brazil)= 0.17356 USD   1 USD = 5.75821 BRL

*1 KRW (South Korea) = 0.00088 USD   1 USD = 1131.97 KRW

*1 HTG (Haiti)= 0.01575 USD   1 USD = 61.7871 HTG

*1 LRD (Liberia) = 0.00541 USD   1 USD = 184.727 LRD

*1 MXN (Mexico) = 0.04691 USD     1 USD = 21.3101 MXN

*1 JPY (Japan) = 0.00957 USD   1 USD = 104.44 JPY

*1 JMD (Jamaica) = 0.00678 USD   1 USD = 144.351 JMD

Source: Bankrate

Foreign exchange: How much will it cost to do business in Atlanta

As of 9:01 pm EST, here is the price of the U.S. Dollar in foreign currency of interest:

1 EUR= $1.18159

1 AOA (Angola)= $0.00154

1 ZAR (South Africa)= $0.06186

1 NGN (Nigeria)= $0.00262

1 INR (India)= $0.01355

1 KES (Kenya)= $0.00911

1 CNY (China)= $0.14906

1 XCD (Eastern Caribbean)= $.37037

*1 CHD (Canada)= $0.75876

*1 CHF (Switzerland)= $1.10171

*1 ISL (Israel)= $0.29454

*1 ARS (Argentina)= $0.01278

*1 BSD (The Bahamas)= $1.00

*1 ECS (Ecuador)= $0.00004

*1 BRL (Brazil)= $0.17703

*1 KRW (South Korea)= $0.00089

*1 HTG (Haiti)= $0.01577

*1 LRD (Liberia) = $0.00529

*1 MXN (Mexico) = $0.04777

*1 JPY (Japan) =$0.00956

*1 JMD (Jamaica) =$0.00678

Source: Bankrate

*Has a consulate office located in Atlanta

Buying a piece of America from abroad? Here are your rates….

As of 9:04 am EST 22 October 2020, here are your exchange rates from selected countries:

1 Euro = $1.19 USD

1 Kwanza= $0.0015 USD

1 Rand= $0.061 USD

1 Naira= $0.0026 USD

1 Rupee= $0.014 USD

1 Shilling= $0.0092 USD

1 Yuan= $0.15 USD

1 Eastern Caribbean Dollar= $0.31 USD

Source: Morningstar