Alton Drew

Reading the shift …

Tag: foreign exchange

Interbank Market News Scan: Is Jeff Bezos on the way to building a digital country?

Posted by on in Amazon, dealer, Federal Reserve, foreign exchange, interbank marketLeave a comment

27 July 2021

Links to follow

However, what fewer people are aware of is the way that the app world has transformed the forex industry. Forex trading apps have proliferated in recent years, and it’s easy to see why: these apps offer a chance to keep up to date with the latest events in the market, and make the taking of real-time trading decisions possible. https://techbullion.com/how-foreign-exchange-apps-are-changing-the-trading-industry/

Speculations about Amazon set to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment by the end of the year have been growing, following a job posting for a “Digital Currency and Blockchain Product Lead.” Bitcoin Prices Surge Thanks to Amazon Rumors (yahoo.com)

El Salvador is the first country to declare bitcoin legal tender. But the experiment raises big questions about what will happen next — for bitcoin and the country itself. El Salvador made bitcoin a legal currency. Now it gets interesting (cnbc.com)

Six things that happened in crypto this past week. Crypto news: bitcoin rally, Amazon digital currency expert, tether probe (cnbc.com)

The Takeaway: Is Jeff Bezos on the way to building a digital country?

There is some buzz about possible acceptance by Amazon of bitcoin as digital payment for its goods and services.  The speculation is in part a result of Amazon’s recruitment of a digital currency and blockchain product lead.  However, Amazon’s global delivery platform combined with its own digital token could take Amazon to heights higher than its New Shepard rocket.  Futures commission merchants and retail foreign exchange dealers (brokerages and brokers) should envision such a digital token as a significant future foreign exchange trade.

How soon this trade comes about depends on how quickly Amazon can design, test, and deploy a token.  I believe enough of a platform necessary for supporting a digital token is already in place.  Let us start with an important consumer item: food. 

A digital country will need a food distribution system to sustain it.  Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods in 2017 gave the company at the time of the acquisition a retail footprint and distribution network valued at $14 billion.  With its goal of being “the Earth’s most customer-centric company”, encouraging farmers and other food processing vendors to use its digital tender creates currency agents that can trade that valuable token with other commercial entities. 

In addition to food distribution, lying at the heart of the Amazon economy are the transactions conducted on its network.  Merchants of all stripes trade on Amazon’s network.  Amazon’s attempts at facilitating trade by creating an online space for vendors who would otherwise be frozen out of a traditional brick and mortar business due to costs are generating revenues for the company and enhancing its brand as merchant centric.  Like farmers and food processors, merchants who choose to use an Amazon token become currency merchants for the company by turning around and trading the tokens into consumer, other retailer, and wholesale markets.

Lastly, pushing up Amazon’s value further will be its data and information services game.  Amazon’s cloud services and its electronic devices such as Kindle and Alexa collect data and make that data available for sale.  Allowing consumers, governments, and commercial enterprises to purchase Amazon data products and output with its tender will only help increase a digital token’s value.

It is tempting to say that there is a way to go before Amazon comes up with a digital token of their own to rival bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, but with technology, “long way off” is around the corner.

For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.

— Alton Drew

Rates reported by the Federal Reserve (Release Date 26 July 2021)

Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.10%

Discount Window:  0.25%

Prime Bank Rate: 3.25%

3-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

6-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

1-year Treasury bill: 0.07%

Prices

Exchange rates of interest as of 1:39 am EST

Currency pairExchange rate
AUD/USD*0.7381
EUR/USD*1.1802
GBP/USD*1.3826
USD/CAD*1.2543
USD/CHF*0.9162
USD/JPY*110.1800
USD/MXN*20.0290
Source: *Reuters

Interbank Market News Scan: Forex market dealers prepare for Fed monetary policy announcement ….

Posted by on in dealer, Federal Reserve, foreign exchange, interdealerLeave a comment

24 July 2021

Monetary Policy News

Markets prepare for Federal Reserve policy decision

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System meet on 27 & 28 July 2021 for their policy meeting, with a press conference scheduled on 28 July after the 2:00pm release of its decision on the Federal Funds and Discount Window rates.  While the Federal Reserve does not directly regulate rates set in the interbank market, the fed funds and discount window rates set the environment for rate determination in the interbank markets.

While the Federal Reserve maintained its policy of board members not releasing any statements during the week leading up to its policy announcement, the equity markets have been signaling an expectation that the central bank will continue its policy of purchasing $120 billion a month in U.S. Treasurys and agency backed debt.  The past several weeks has seen increased discussions in Congress and the media about increasing prices for food, energy, automobiles, and other goods and services.  Traders and dealers will be paying close attention to any language that signals an increase in the costs for money and/or changes in the supply of money.

For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.

Rates reported by the Federal Reserve (Release Date 23 July 2021)

Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.10%

Discount Window:  0.25%

Prime Bank Rate: 3.25%

3-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

6-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

1-year Treasury bill: 0.07%

Prices

Exchange rates of interest as of 1:15 pm AST

Currency pairExchange rate
AUD/USD*0.7364
EUR/USD*1.1771
GBP/USD*1.3746
USD/CAD*1.2556
USD/CHF*0.9190
USD/JPY*110.5400
USD/XCD+2.7000
USD/NGN+411.1590
USD/MXN*20.0430
Sources: *Reuters +OANDA

Interbank Market News Scan: Assessing the Legal and Political “Meteorology” of Foreign Exchange

Posted by on in central banks, Federal Reserve, foreign exchangeLeave a comment

The Morning Takeaway: Assessing the Legal and Political “Meteorology” of Foreign Exchange

Humans have no need to come in contact with each other but for the exchange of value.  How the value deemed from interaction is determined will be based on an individual assessment of how much benefit is to be gleaned from what another has to exchange.

Determining the benefit of what another party has to exchange means incurring costs for gathering information.  The more cogent and clear the better.  Efforts are optimized and the information gathering becomes efficient.  Understanding the environment producing the information is important.  The environment places parameters on any information obtained.  The environment within which the information is produced may lack characteristics necessary for producing the clearest information possible.

The value that is being exchanged also contains information about the environment it is coming out of.  Take corn or any other agricultural commodity.  For optimal growth, the environment that produces corn should provide a certain quality of soil, nutrients, water, and weather to create a quality yield.  What is yielded should be able to provide you with information on the quality of soil, nutrients, water, and weather from whence the yield came. 

This same approach should be taken to another commodity, currency.  The “soil’ for this commodity is a nation’s central bank and to a lesser extent the commercial banks that act as distribution channels for the currency.  The “soil” is impacted by the “weather” and “climate” generated by the level of transactions occurring within multiple markets in the political economy.  These transactions deliver “rain” onto the soil and impact the yield in currency released into the political economy’s blood flow.  And just like a corn crop can provide the farmer or the end user information about the environment that spawned the yield, so to can currency, or specifically, currency price movements, provide the trader with information about the central bank environment.

For the trader, it is important to assess the legal and political “meteorology” of the central bank environment.  Without these assessments, the trader, whether purchasing currency tails for speculation or as part of an international business transaction, risks not capitalizing on the yields that foreign exchange can bring about.

For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.

Exchange rates of interest as of 11:45 am AST

Currency pairExchange rate
AUD/USD*0.7352
EUR/USD*1.1794
GBP/USD*1.3714
USD/CAD*1.2739
USD/CHF*0.9192
USD/JPY*109.3100
USD/XCD+2.7000
USD/NGN+410.9850
USD/MXN*20.0353
Sources: *Reuters +OANDA

Rates reported by the Federal Reserve (Release Date 16 July 2021)

Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.10%

Discount Window:  0.25%

Prime Bank Rate: 3.25%

3-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

6-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

1-year Treasury bill: 0.07%

Interbank Market News Scan: What traders need to know about politics …

Posted by on in foreign exchange, interbank market, tradersLeave a comment

What Traders Need to Know About Politics: Capital Hates Labor

Regurgitating textbook definitions of economic growth i.e., growth in employment or gross domestic product, etc., only throws you off the mark leaving you frustrated as you ask yourself, “Why are more people being left behind while others see growth in their stock portfolios?”

Economics has never been about growth in employment. Economics is about managing capital with the appropriate amount of labor and technology such that asset values grow. It means pushing the envelope on returns to capital by raising prices so that when discounted by some rate, the present value of the asset can increase thus increasing the value of an individual’s portfolio so that they can leverage the portfolio as collateral for borrowing money at low rates and buying bonds and stocks generating a yield greater than the interest they borrowed at.

In short, today’s economics is about optimizing the carry trade.

This approach to economics was exposed in 2007 and 2008. If this growth in income and asset value (the only inflation that matters) can be achieved without hiring another soul, the wealthy would be happy.

The politician’s job is to distract the low and middle-income populace with narratives of “attacks on democracy” “diversity and inclusion” and “climate change.” Throw in “gun violence” policy and attacks on the big banks ala Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and the masses really keep their eyes off the ball.

The politicians that are shedding crocodile tears over today’s inflation figures are either ignorant as to true economics or are putting on a show scripted by their supporting political action committees in order to throw the electorate off of the scent. Needless to say, I think it is the latter.

So, when your favorite politicians are telling you that they are looking out for your economic well-being by offering you $300 tax credits and promising you that they will beat up on the banks that are raising your interest rates on the adjustable-rate mortgage you foolhardily took out or dragging supermarkets into a hearing for raising the price on your T-bone steaks, ignore them. Their job is to ensure the distraction by cheerleading the greatness of their fiscal policies that eventually result in higher taxes or their social programs purposefully designed to be effective no more than eighteen months, assuming they are effective at all….

Meanwhile, replace fluffy concepts such as “economy” and “fiscal policy.” Accept that “socialism” and “capitalism” are policy terms designed more to divide, conquer, and garner votes versus helping put food on your table. Learn to accept that “capital” despises “labor” and her goal is to exterminate you or relegate you to an Andrew Yang universal basic income scheme. Stop repeating what you’ve read in a textbook. All lies. Either you have something of high value to trade for low value currency or you don’t. That is as “economy” as you need to get.

Exchange rates of interest as of 9:52 am AST

Currency pairExchange rate
AUD/USD*0.7422
EUR/USD*1.1793
GBP/USD*1.3804
USD/CAD*1.2593
USD/CHF*0.9182
USD/JPY*110.1900
USD/XCD+2.7000
USD/NGN+409.8540
USD/MXN*19.8603
Sources: *Reuters +OANDA

Rates reported by the Federal Reserve (Release Date 15 July 2021)

Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.10%

Discount Window:  0.25%

Prime Bank Rate: 3.25%

3-month Treasury bill: 0.06%

6-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

1-year Treasury bill: 0.08%

Interbank Market News Scan as of 3:01 pm AST; foreign exchange, interbank

Posted by on in foreign exchange, interbank marketLeave a comment

11 July 2021

Links to follow ….

Interbank. Biden issues executive order addressing bank mergers, competition. Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the American Economy | The White House

Foreign exchange. The first country to get hit by the pandemic has become the first global economy to stumble as the world begins to heal, pushing investors to reconsider where China fits on the old-fashioned continuum of emerging and developed markets. China’s Easing Forces Traders to Rethink How They Label Markets – Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today announced that the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) will begin gradual sales of its corporate bond holdings on July 12, 2021. The New York Fed also released an updated set of Frequently Asked Questions regarding the sales of these assets. New York Fed Announces the Start of Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility Corporate Bond Sales on July 12 – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

Exchange rates of interest as of 3:00 pm AST

Currency pairExchange rate
USD/XCDXCD 2.70
USD/MXNMXN 19.8440
USD/JMDJMD 149.3260
USD/DOPDOP 56.7350
USD/HTGHTG 92.2640
USD/NGNNGN 409.5000
USD/GHSGHS 5.8993
USD/INRINR 74.3350
Source: OANDA

Interbank Market News Scan: Libor coming to an end. China’s RMB hopes to take out the dollar …

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9 July 2021

Foreign exchange rates of interest …

Currency pairExchange rate
USD/XCDXCD 2.70
USD/MXNMXN 20.0188
USD/JMDJMD 148.6230
USD/DOPDOP 56.6164
USD/HTGHTG 92.0194
USD/NGNNGN 411.2120
USD/GHSGHS 5.9153
Source: OANDA

News links of interest …

Interbank. With the end near for the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday told banks and other financial institutions to stop using the benchmark as soon as possible and mandatorily by December 31 and move to any Alternative Reference Rates (ARR). https://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/rbi-to-banks-phase-out-libor-soon-move-to-alternative-reference-rates-121070900016_1.html

Interbank. The booming collateralized loan obligation market faces a chaotic end to 2021, when the benchmark London interbank offered rate is retired for new loan contracts. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/growing-clo-market-has-a-libor-transition-problem-on-horizon?sref=oriheOus Interbank. Sri Lanka’s central bank said it will dip into its foreign exchange reserves to partly repay $1 billion of bonds maturing later this month, seeking to allay investors’ concern about a possible default. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/sri-lanka-keeps-rate-on-hold-as-focus-shifts-to-debt-repayment?sref=oriheOus

Foreign exchange, China. The following are the central parity rates of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan, against 24 major currencies announced on Friday by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System: Market exchange rates in China — July 9 – Xinhua | English.news.cn (xinhuanet.com)

Foreign exchange. Could the RMB dislodge the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Could the RMB Dislodge the Dollar As a Reserve Currency? – BRINK – Conversations and Insights on Global Business (brinknews.com)

Cryptocurrency.  Why China wants to undermine Bitcoin. Currency and control: why China wants to undermine bitcoin (msn.com)

Cryptocurrency.  The future is far from stateless. Cryptocurrencies’ dream of escaping the global financial system is crumbling | Quinn Slobodian | The Guardian

Interbank Market News Scan: Eastern Caribbean, foreign exchange …

Posted by on in Caribbean, Eastern Caribbean, foreign exchangeLeave a comment

2 July 2021

Foreign exchange rates of interest

Where base currency is XCDRates as of 9:30 am AST 2 July 2021Where term currency is XCDRates as of 9:30 am AST 2 July 2021
XCD/EUR0.3125EUR/XCD3.2000
XCD/GBP0.2686GBP/XCD3.7231
XCD/USD0.3704USD/XCD2.7000
XCD/CAD0.4596CAD/XCD2.1754
XCD/NGN152.1010NGN/XCD0.0066
XCD/CNY2.3938CNY/XCD0.4174
XCD/PLN1.4111PLN/XCD0.7081
XCD/PEN1.4229PEN/XCD0.6963
Source: OANDA

Eastern Caribbean Central Bank-interest rates

ECCB Fixed Deposit Rate-1 month0%
ECCB Fixed Deposit Rate-2 months0%
ECCB Fixed Deposit Rate-3 months0%
*ECCU Minimum Savings Deposit Rate2%
ECCB Discount Rate2%
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank

Links to follow …

Eastern Caribbean Central Bank. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) recorded a net profit of $25.2 million for the year ended 31 March 2021, a 60.1 per cent decrease from the profit reported in the prior year. https://www.eccb-centralbank.org/news/view/eccb-records-profit-for-financial-year-2020-2021

European Central Bank. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) today published a joint report that takes a closer look at how a broadened set of climate change drivers affects millions of global firms and thousands of financial firms in the European Union (EU). https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.pr210701~8fe34bbe8e.en.html

Interbank. The yuan’s share of the world’s central banks’ reserves is at 2.45%. https://illinoisnewstoday.com/chinese-yuan-share-of-world-foreign-exchange-reserves-hits-new-highs/279603/

Interbank. The Central Bank of The Bahamas says the restrictions placed on foreign exchange outflows at the onset of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will end this week. https://www.nycaribnews.com/articles/foreign-exchange-restrictions-eased-in-bahamas/

Interbank Market News Scan: Banks as currency agents, foreign exchange, Federal Reserve

Posted by on in banks, central banks, foreign exchange, interbank marketLeave a comment

The Publisher’s Note: Banks as currency agents …

Banks should think of themselves as the private sector currency agents of the State.  The currency encapsulates the economic, commercial, and social value of a political economy.  A State-issued currency ties the State’s citizens to a particular value system while providing a mechanism that accounts for a citizen’s wealth and serves the citizen as a medium of exchange for goods and services, including the payment of taxes to the State.

Banks help distribute State-issued currency primarily through the creation of credit.  Banks are a “port of call” for currency; receiving deposits from its customers, capital from its investors, and placing State-issued Treasurys, underwritten by the central bank, into its investment portfolio.  Banks issue loans to their customers creating money in the process.  This money can be deposited at other banks or used by consumers or businesses for purchases.  The fees for financial services provided to consumers and the interest earned from lending to end users and producers provide the banks with income that, along with the income generated by businesses financed by banks, can be taxed by the State.

The fallout from the 2007-2008 financial meltdown has created a narrative that banks are entities separate from the State; private sector “bad boys” whose reckless behavior from creating financial instruments doomed to perform poorly caused people to lose jobs and credit to freeze.  The narrative had citizens questioning why these misbehaving banks received bailouts from the U.S. government while ordinary citizens had to bear the brunt of the rippling effects throughout the economy. 

The answer is simple.  Selling debt instruments and earning fees for placing these instruments into the hands of investors part of the implicit agreement between the State and the banks as currency agents.  Even as elected officials such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts and Senator Bernie Sanders, Independent of Vermont, argue for increased regulation of America’s larger banks, the truth of the matter is that dismantling the mechanisms of banking would be too costly to the State’s currency distribution system.  The State would have to re-write its laws to support an alternative system and for all the noise against the current system, seems to be in no rush to replace it.    

Links to follow …

Interbank. Orum, which aims to speed up the amount of time it takes to transfer money between banks, announced today it has raised $56 million in a Series B round of funding. https://techcrunch.com/2021/06/29/orum-raises-56m/

Interbank. The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor), which measures the borrowing cost of China’s interbank market, increased 38.2 basis points to 2.177 percent Wednesday. http://www.china.org.cn/china/Off_the_Wire/2021-06/30/content_77597450.htm

Foreign exchange. The Central Bank of The Bahamas says the restrictions placed on foreign exchange outflows at the onset of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will end this week. https://www.nycaribnews.com/articles/foreign-exchange-restrictions-eased-in-bahamas/

Central banks. Investment decisions over the next three months will be influenced by forward guidance from central banks, according to global fund managers in Reuters polls who recommended increasing equity exposure and lowering bond holdings in June. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/funds-eye-central-banks-guidance-124802638.html

Central banks, Federal Reserve. “[D]eveloping a CBDC could, I believe, pose considerable risks.”—Randal Quarles. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/quarles20210628a.htm

Banks as currency agents …

Posted by on in banks, currency, foreign exchange, tradersLeave a comment

Banks should think of themselves as the private sector currency agents of the State.  The currency encapsulates the economic, commercial, and social value of a political economy.  A State-issued currency ties the State’s citizens to a particular value system while providing a mechanism that accounts for a citizen’s wealth and serves the citizen as a medium of exchange for goods and services, including the payment of taxes to the State.

Banks help distribute State-issued currency primarily through the creation of credit.  Banks are a “port of call” for currency; receiving deposits from its customers, capital from its investors, and placing State-issued Treasurys, underwritten by the central bank, into its investment portfolio.  Banks issue loans to their customers creating money in the process.  This money can be deposited at other banks or used by consumers or businesses for purchases.  The fees for financial services provided to consumers and the interest earned from lending to end users and producers provide the banks with income that, along with the income generated by businesses financed by banks, can be taxed by the State.

The fallout from the 2007-2008 financial meltdown has created a narrative that banks are entities separate from the State; private sector “bad boys” whose reckless behavior from creating financial instruments doomed to perform poorly caused people to lose jobs and credit to freeze.  The narrative had citizens questioning why these misbehaving banks received bailouts from the U.S. government while ordinary citizens had to bear the brunt of the rippling effects throughout the economy. 

The answer is simple.  Selling debt instruments and earning fees for placing these instruments into the hands of investors part of the implicit agreement between the State and the banks as currency agents.  Even as elected officials such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts and Senator Bernie Sanders, Independent of Vermont, argue for increased regulation of America’s larger banks, the truth of the matter is that dismantling the mechanisms of banking would be too costly to the State’s currency distribution system.  The State would have to re-write its laws to support an alternative system and for all the noise against the current system, seems to be in no rush to replace it.     

Interbank Market News Scan: The Caribbean, foreign exchange …

Posted by on in Caribbean, Eastern Caribbean, foreign exchange, interbank marketLeave a comment

25 June 2021

Eastern Caribbean Central Bank-interest rates

ECCB Fixed Deposit Rate-1 month0%
ECCB Fixed Deposit Rate-2 months0%
ECCB Fixed Deposit Rate-3 months0%
*ECCU Minimum Savings Deposit Rate2%
ECCB Discount Rate2%
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank

*Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

Foreign exchange rates of interest

Where base currency is XCDRates as of 1:03 am AST 25 June 2021Where term currency is XCDRates as of 1:03 am AST 25 June 2021
XCD/EUR0.3104EUR/XCD3.2216
XCD/GBP0.2657GBP/XCD3.7634
XCD/USD0.3704USD/XCD2.7000
XCD/CAD0.4559CAD/XCD2.1932
XCD/NGN152.1620NGN/XCD0.0066
XCD/CNY2.3963CNY/XCD0.4169
XCD/PLN1.4038PLN/XCD0.7118
XCD/PEN1.4613PEN/XCD0.6723
Source: OANDA

Eastern Caribbean Central Bank.  The Eastern Caribbean Partial Credit Guarantee Corporation (ECPCGC) announces two new products aimed at helping regional Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) rebound and grow their businesses. https://www.eccb-centralbank.org/news/view/ecpcgc-offers-additional-products-to-help-small-businesses

Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday released the results of its annual bank stress tests, which showed that large banks continue to have strong capital levels and could continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20210624a.htm

Foreign exchange. Chinese banks’ stockpile of foreign-currency deposits has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, creating an opportunity for Beijing to allow greater freedom for capital to flow out of the country. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-24/chinese-banks-stockpile-record-1-trillion-of-foreign-currencies?sref=oriheOus

Foreign exchange. The EU is unlikely to grant U.K.-based financial firms automatic market access in all areas post-Brexit, according to a top British minister. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-24/u-k-says-equivalence-with-eu-unlikely-in-all-areas-of-finance?sref=oriheOus

Interbank. China’s interbank treasury bond index in net price opened at 985.08 points Friday, higher than the previous close of 984.84 points, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. http://www.china.org.cn/china/Off_the_Wire/2021-06/25/content_77586945.htm