The value of a currency is determined by changes in supply and demand; the demand for Treasury notes denominated in the base currency; and the amount of the base currency held in reserve by foreign central banks. The greater the amount of base currency held by foreign central banks, the lower the supply of the term currency, thus the higher the term currency’s price.
In the table below, the base currencies are on the left of the slash mark, the African currencies. The term currency, in the case the euro, is on the right of the slash. So, today one Ghanaian cedi (GHS) is priced at 0.1419 euros.
At first blush it is tempting to consider the low euro price as a bad thing. Yes, currency represents a country’s economic value and given these low absolute euro values a reader may feel despondent that Europe looks apparently with low favor on the African continent. They would not be wrong. The African continent has long been Europe’s supplier of resources with a well-documented imbalance in the relationship.
Coming terms with the imbalance should include African central banks and national governments taking fiscal and monetary actions to drive up their currency values. The continent has taken small but important steps toward doing so with the creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) which went into effect last January. The 54 signatories to the agreement hope that removing non-tariff barriers to trade, elimination of 90% of tariffs on internal trade, and the facilitation of the movement of human capital between nations will go far in stemming its move from the current colonial model and, in the words of Wamkele Mene, the AfCFTA secretariat, move Africa away from being a provider of commodities with final goods being processed elsewhere.
With a little resilience and focus, the Continent will get there and Europe will have to take another look at how she evaluates Africa’s value…
Remittances, Philippines. Remittances continued to grow in March as more countries eased travel restrictions and reopened borders to foreign workers, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported Monday. Remittances up 4.9% in March (msn.com)
Remittances, Ghana. Remittances from Ghanaians grew by five per cent from $3.39 billion in 2019 to $5.57 billion in 2020, a World Bank report has said. This was in spite of the grim economic outlook presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected people’s earnings and the economies of nations worldwide last year. Remittances From Ghanaians Abroad Increase | Social | Peacefmonline.com
Banks. Two regional banks in Japan’s northern prefecture of Aomori said they were considering consolidating, joining a flurry of lenders seeking to survive amid narrowing margins from a rapidly ageing population and ultra-low interest rates. Two Japanese regional banks eye tie-up to fight margin pressures | Nasdaq
Banks. Long ago central banks secured a monopoly over the issuance of paper money. Now physical cash in the form of bank notes and coins is in terminal decline. But the monetary authorities don’t intend to allow cryptocurrencies to fill the void without a fight. Instead, they’re responding with their own version of a so-called “stablecoin”. These central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, could turn out to be the most revolutionary financial innovation since, well, the inception of paper money. Chancellor: Central bank coin will crush the banks | Nasdaq
FedWatch: Fed chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks on the Community Reinvestment Act and the importance of community development …
“We see our robust supervisory approach as critical to addressing racial discrimination, which can limit consumers’ ability to improve their economic circumstances, including through access to homeownership and education.” — Jerome Powell
“Good afternoon. It is a pleasure to be with you today.
Together, over the past year, we have been making our way through a very difficult time. We are not out of the woods yet, but I am glad to say that we are now making real progress. While some countries are still suffering terribly in the grip of COVID-19, the economic outlook here in the United States has clearly brightened. Vaccination levels are rising. Fiscal and monetary policy are providing strong support. The economy is reopening, bringing stronger economic activity and job creation.
That is the high-level perspective—let’s call it the 30,000 foot view—and from that vantage point, we see improvement. But we should also take a look at what is happening at street level. Lives and livelihoods have been affected in ways that vary from person to person, family to family, and community to community. The economic downturn has not fallen evenly on all Americans, and those least able to bear the burden have been the hardest hit.
The pain is all the greater in light of the gains we had seen in the years prior to the pandemic. COVID swept in as the United States was experiencing the longest expansion on record. Unemployment was at 50-year lows, and inflation remained under control. Wages were moving up, particularly for the lowest-paid workers. Long-standing racial disparities in unemployment were narrowing, and many who had struggled for years were finding jobs. It was not until the later years of that expansion that its benefits had started to reach those on the margins. During our Fed Listens events, we met with people around the country and heard repeatedly about the life-changing gains of the strong labor market, particularly at the lower end of the income spectrum. Just a few months later, those stories changed to ones of job losses, overextended support services, and businesses built over generations closing their doors for good.
While the recovery is gathering strength, it has been slower for those in lower-paid jobs: Almost 20 percent of workers who were in the lowest earnings quartile in February of 2020 were not employed a year later, compared to 6 percent for workers in the highest quartile.1
The Fed’s latest Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking—or SHED report—which will be published later this month, will show that, for prime-age adults without a bachelor’s degree, 20 percent saw layoffs in 2020 versus 12 percent for college-educated workers. And more than 20 percent of Black and Hispanic prime-age workers were laid off compared to 14 percent of white workers over the same period.
Small businesses have also faced immense difficulties. Fed research found that 80 percent of those surveyed reported a decline in revenue, with two-thirds of those businesses experiencing losses of at least 25 percent.2 A recent Federal Reserve special report looked specifically at the impact on businesses owned by people of color, who reported greater challenges. For example, 67 percent of both Asian- and Black-owned firms and 63 percent of Hispanic-owned firms had to reduce their operations compared to 54 percent for their white counterparts.3
Our upcoming SHED report notes that 22 percent of parents were either not working or working less because of disruptions to childcare or in-person schooling. Black and Hispanic mothers—36 percent and 30 percent, respectively—were disproportionately affected. In a similar vein, labor force participation declined around 4 percentage points for Black and Hispanic women compared to 1.6 percentage points for white women and about 2 percentage points for men overall.4 The Fed is focused on these long-standing disparities because they weigh on the productive capacity of our economy. We will only reach our full potential when everyone can contribute to, and share in, the benefits of prosperity.
Achieving broadly shared prosperity will take action from across society, from fiscal and other government policy to private-sector initiatives to the work everyone here does. The Fed can contribute as well. Using our monetary policy tools, the Fed promotes maximum employment and price stability—two foundations of a strong, stable economy that can improve economic outcomes for all Americans. We view maximum employment as a broad and inclusive goal. Those who have historically been left behind stand the best chance of prospering in a strong economy with plentiful job opportunities. Our recent history highlights both the benefits of a strong economy and the severe costs of a weak one.
Supervisory tools also have a role to play. As part of our policy responsibilities, the Board of Governors enforces both the Fair Housing Act and the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, the federal fair lending laws that prohibit discrimination in lending. Violations of the fair lending laws, along with other illegal credit practices, are taken into account during bank evaluations under the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). We see our robust supervisory approach as critical to addressing racial discrimination, which can limit consumers’ ability to improve their economic circumstances, including through access to homeownership and education.
The Fed’s community development function plays a role as well, studying what works, convening stakeholders on both the national and District level, and helping financial institutions find opportunities to invest and expand credit opportunities in low- and moderate-income communities.
The economic landscape has changed, and efforts to provide access and credit to communities must change with it. Last year, the Fed issued a proposal for a strengthened, modernized CRA framework, with the objective of building broad support among both external stakeholders and participating agencies. Our goal is to strengthen the core purpose of meeting the credit needs of low- and moderate-income communities. We especially appreciated NCRC’s feedback on the proposal.
We will continue to do our part, and we appreciate the ways our work and that of NCRC members have intersected. Last April, for instance, the Fed expanded the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility in order to broaden its reach to include some nondepository lenders. That included CDFI (community development financial institution) loan funds, which many of the people here represent. Your work provided small businesses with invaluable technical assistance to help them weather the downturn, and you have helped them get the funds they need to support their businesses.
NCRC member groups have contributed in so many ways. You helped workers who lost their jobs get retrained. You supported working parents. You helped homeowners struggling with payments and connected renters to federal assistance programs. You brought more people into the banking system, helped strengthen financial literacy and capabilities, and worked to address digital divides in areas of need—particularly in rural communities—at a time when connectivity is essential.
I would like to close by saying thank you. You have been working hard through this crisis, and an enormous amount of work still lies ahead. But what you do is essential. You provide an invaluable service: You make people’s lives better. There is no higher calling.
Bank of Jamaica, repos. Applications were opened on Monday, 26 April 2021 by Bank of Jamaica, for the provision of Jamaica Dollar liquidity, in the amount of JMD5 000 000 000.00 through repurchases to deposit-taking financial institutions for settlement on Tuesday, 27 April 2021. These repurchases will mature on Tuesday, 11 May 2021. bank_of_jamaica_14-day_auction_result_26_april_2021.pdf (boj.org.jm)
Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting tomorrow Wednesday 27 April 2021. No changes are expected in the federal funds target rate which ranges between 0 and .25%. The Fed – Meeting calendars and information (federalreserve.gov)
Central banks, ECB, digital currency. Only a few years ago, central bank digital currency (CBDC) was seen as something exotic. Sweden’s Riksbank was alone among high-income countries in exploring it, a fact attributed to its population’s uniquely low use of cash. Now official e-currencies have gone mainstream. www.ft.com
The market opening. The rates to start your day ….
As of 8:10 am EST, Bloomberg reports that the yield on the three-month Treasury note is at 0.01%, down from yesterday’s 0.03% while the two-year note remained at yesterday’s 0.15% rate. The ten-year and thirty-year Treasurys are trading at 1.57% and 2.27%, respectively and relatively unchanged from yesterday.
The Federal Funds rate, the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight in support of their reserve requirements, is at .07%, while the Fed Funds target rate is still at .25%. The prime lending rate is 3.25%. All three rates unchanged from yesterday.
Exchange rates of interest as of 8:45 am EST….
Currency Pairs
Rates as of 8:45 am EST 22 April 2021
Rates as of 9:55 am EST 21 April 2021
Percentage change in rates
EUR/USD
1.1793
1.2024
-1.9%
GBP/USD
1.3785
1.3891
-.0076%
USD/CAD
1.2572
1.2629
-.0045%
CAD/XCD
2.1462
2.1462
unchanged
USD/XCD
2.7000
2.7000
unchanged
USD/TTD
6.6691
6.6721
-.0004%
USD/BBD
2.0000
2.0000
unchanged
CAD/TTD
5.3012
5.3050
unchanged
CAD/BBD
1.5899
1.5874
unchanged
Source: OANDA
The Opening Takeaway: Could Facebook’s cryptocurrency be the longer term digital play?
Facebook appears to be leveraging the experience it has garnered on America’s Capitol Hill. When the Facebook-backed digital coin Libra found itself targeted by backlash from members of Congress, the company and its stable coin project partners had to go back to the drawing board which included a rebrand of the coin (from Libra to Diem); a little reorganizing of the stable coin project’s membership; and pursuing a payment services license from Switzerland’s financial regulators. See Facebook-backed Diem aims to launch digital currency pilot in 2021 (cnbc.com).
By going the stable coin route, where a cryptocurrency pegs its value to the value of a country’s currency, in this case, the United States, Facebook and its Diem partners, knowingly or not, have made baby steps to pacifying government critics in the US who are concerned about Diem’s threat to the stability of the US political-economic system. This is simply code for “We have to stop Facebook from disrupting our tax and customs regime.” The claims of concern over privacy also seem a bit bogus given that Congress has passed up a number of times over the last decade and a half to promulgate any comprehensive laws that would not only have codified network neutrality but also privacy over America’s digital networks. Besides, as the US slowly gets to testing its own central bank issued digital coin, it too will have to address why taxpayers should be less concerned about government intrusion into privacy as opposed to Facebook.
Facebook is in a position to leverage its network effect generated by over 2 billion daily users and its e-commerce and advertising platform. Its subscribers can enjoy some sort of “dual nation” status where they exchange goods and services on Facebook’s platform using Diem, thus creating a sense of exclusivity. Sort of like an Amazon Prime membership on steroids where only members i.e. Diem-using subscribers, can come and play. And knowing that Diem can be exchanged for US dollars will put Facebook subscribers’ minds at ease. If the Facebook subscriber is not concerned about convertibility, then the US government should have less of a consumer protection argument to throw around.
Another potential benefit may carry over to the Federal Reserve. As it hems and haws over the development of a central bank issued digital currency, it could study the Facebook template, observing in real time how a digital nation-state operates. Also, there is the potential for a test case for conducting digital foreign currency exchange made easier due to Diem being a stable coin.
Lastly, from a foreign policy perspective, the US should look favorably on more of the world’s economies having indirect access to the dollar via Facebook’s stable coin. Using, buying, and selling Diem amounts to using, buying, and selling US dollars. This indirect use of the greenback would keep the dollar out front as the world’s reserve currency.
Foreign exchange, digital yuan. The United States’ reliance on economic sanctions to coerce other countries is gradually losing its effectiveness and slowly degrading one of Washington’s most influential tools in international affairs, the power of the U.S. dollar, experts told Newsweek. Sanctions Are Destroying U.S. Dollar’s Status as World’s Top Currency (newsweek.com)
Foreign exchange, India. Currency exchange rates can turn out to be a real dealbreaker and can cause a dent in an individual’s pocket who is traveling overseas. Even a difference of a few paise while doing currency conversion can make a huge difference in the budget for the trip. It becomes crucial to be aware of the various options while doing currency exchange. Currency Exchange and the related details (msn.com)
Digital currency, Bank of Japan. Japan’s central bank has started trials of a new digital currency in an effort to experiment with how it might be used, the Bank of Japan announced on Monday. The announcement comes after the Chinese government revealed it was doing something very similar with a digital yuan in early March. Japan’s Central Bank Launches One-Year Test of Digital Currency (gizmodo.com)
Regulatory news. NFA has ordered OANDA Corporation (OANDA), an NFA Member retail foreign exchange dealer and futures commission merchant headquartered in Toronto, Canada, to pay a $200,000 fine. The Decision, issued by NFA’s Business Conduct Committee (BCC), is based on a Complaint issued by the BCC and a settlement offer submitted by OANDA. The BCC found that OANDA failed to submit accurate daily forex reports to NFA and failed to supervise. News & Notices | NFA (futures.org)
Strategic takeaway. The National Futures Association’s complaint illustrates the necessity of defining and maintaining your regulatory strategic position. Although the foreign exchange market is near unregulated in terms of price setting, market entry and maintenance of entry are regulated where the goal is a balancing act between ensuring that investors/traders are availed a high degree of market transparency regarding pricing, broker qualifications and integrity, and the integrity of a brokerage platform and the dealer’s need to seek out and maintain data on best currency prices, disseminating that information to investor/traders, while controlling costs and increasing profits.
A main component of maintaining a regulatory strategic position is consistency in not only implementing your own compliance program, but in auditing its performance. For example, failure to detect suspicious activity, respond in a consistent and timely manner to customer complaints, notice red flags from wire activity, adopt written protocols for protecting against technology threats, and file required reports to the U.S. Department of the Treasury or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are indicative of consistent auditing within an organization.
OANDA’s problem started out with a customer complaint involving an unauthorized transfer of $5,000 out of a customer’s account. The resulting $200,000 fine may have been avoided.
Payment systems. Despite its mass acceptance and large user base, one such institution brought into the spotlight of legal debate is Google India’s payments operation, Google Pay. This article explains the legal debate behind it and what it means for India’s payments ecosystem. Can Third-Party Applications Be Classified As Payment System Operators? (inc42.com)
Payment systems. A patient payments technology venture that counts local players Nashville Capital Network and i3 Verticals among its owners has been bought by Bank of America. BofA buys health care payments player | Nashville Post
Foreign exchange: speculation. EUR/USD begins the week not correlated to its cross pairs and explains why EUR/USD traded lower into deeply oversold. Currency Market: FX weekly and EM (fxstreet.com)
Foreign exchange: interbank. The dollar was poised to extend gains against major currencies on Monday after the U.S. jobs report at the end of last week showed the nation’s labour market is recovering from the impact of the coronavirus shock. Dollar holds advantage as economic data point to more gains | Reuters
Alton Drew 