Interbank Market News Scan: Russia willing to sell oil to “unfriendly nations.”

Interbank, Russia, roubles, oil. “The Russian rouble briefly leapt to a three-week high past 95 against the dollar on Wednesday in Moscow, before settling close to 100, after President Vladimir Putin said Russia would start selling its gas to “unfriendly countries” in roubles.” See article here. Source: Reuters

Interbank, foreign exchange, Brazil. “Despite its history of extremely rigid and bureaucratic exchange rules, Brazil will now evolve towards a scenario of free movement of capital and simpler and less bureaucratic operations.” See article here. Source: Lexology

Interbank, foreign exchange. “When the U.S. central bank starts raising interest rates, emerging markets often begin to submerge again: Their borrowing costs rise, their currencies fall and, to add insult to injury, slower U.S. growth dents demand for their products. Will this time be the same as the era of zero interest rates ends?” See article here. Source: The Wall Street Journal

Interbank, foreign exchange, India. “The rupee pared initial gains to settle 14 paise lower at 76.32 (provisional) against the US dollar on Wednesday due to month-end dollar demand from importers and rising crude prices amid geopolitical uncertainties.” See article here. Source: Economic Times

Interbank, Russia. “Russia’s main stock market will resume trading Thursday for the first time in four weeks, the Central Bank announced Wednesday.” See article here. Source: The Moscow Times

U.S. and Caribbean Interbank Market Scan: Foreign exchange rates as of 8:26 am AST

Currency Pair7 March 2022(10:35 am AST)8 March 2022(8:26 am AST)9 March 202210 March 202211 March 2022
USD/BSD1.00001.0000   
USD/JMD153.474153.114   
USD/HTG104.162104.034   
USD/DOP54.515254.6718   
USD/XCD2.70002.7000   
USD/BBD2.00002.0000   
USD/TTD6.678876.65329   
USD/GYD200.983200.636   
USD/VEF433,957.00433,230.00   
USD/MXN20.926821.1419   
Dollar Index98.7398.94   
Sources: OANDA, MarketWatch

Interbank Market News Scan: White House, Treasury focus on economics and finance to neutralize Russia’s military invasion …

Interbank, U.S., White House. The White House provides additional details on how it will impose sanctions on Russia. See press release here. Source: Executive Office of the President.

Interbank, U.S., White House. Joint Statement on restrictive economic measures placed on Russia. See press release here. Source: Executive Office of the President.

Interbank, U.S. Treasury, Russia. U.S. Department of the Treasury announces prohibition on transactions with the Central Bank of Russia. See press release here. Source: U.S. Department of Treasury.

Interbank, U.S., Federal Reserve, consumer survey. The Federal Reserve Board in March will begin a statistical study of household finances, the Survey of Consumer Finances, that will provide policymakers with important insight into the economic condition of a broad cross section of American families. See press release here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Interbank, Bank for International Settlements, view on markets. The BIS released its quarterly view on world markets. In the prior three months, fixed income markets were jolted by shift toward tighter monetary policy; stock markets plummeted; and investor sentiment grew toward Asian economies. See press release and report here. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Foreign exchange rates of interest and dollar index at 11:08 am AST

EUR/USD=1.12616

GBP/USD=1.34029

USD/CAD=1.27029

USD/MXN=20.3433

Source: OANDA

Dollar Index=96.74

Source: MarketWatch

Interbank Market News Scan: China’s overnight bank rate decreases; Ukraine’s hryvnia shows strength; Bitcoin strengthens.

Interbank, China. “The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor), which measures the borrowing cost of China’s interbank market, decreased 4.3 basis points to 2.112 percent Monday.” See article here. Source: China.org.cn

Interbank, Pakistan. “Pakistani rupee continued to rise against the US dollar in the inter-bank market on Monday due to positive sentiments generated by the release of a $1 billion tranche by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).” See article here. Source: GeoNews

Interbank, Bank of England, inflation. “Almost certainly, 2022 will also see the most above-target inflation numbers since that change. The Bank will be heavily criticised and proposals will be made for reform. What has gone wrong?” See article here. Source: The Critic

Foreign exchange, National Bank of Ukraine. “Last week the hryvnia exchange rate has somewhat stabilized amid a decrease in rising demand for currency and increase in supply of currency, the press service of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) wrote on Facebook.” See article here. Source: Ukrinform

Foreign exchange rates of interest …

EUR/USD=1.1451

GBP/USD=1.3527

USD/MXN=20.667

USD/GTQ=7.5163

USD/NGN=415.7

USD/GHS=6.3313

USD/VND=22,646.8

USD/JPY=115.191

USD/INR=74.497

USD/BTC=0.00002

USD/ETH=0.00034

Source: OANDA

DXY=95.58 Source: MarketWatch

Interbank Market News Scan: Traders should be mindful of the difference between brokers; Treasury provides assessment of US economy.

Interbank. Why do market-makers provide high leverage? Given that a high percentage of forex traders lose money, do these brokers take advantage of traders’ risk? Or do brokers pass the orders to the interbank network and make money off of spreads? Here are a few answers. https://www.fxstreet.com/education/are-market-making-brokers-taking-advantage-of-high-leverage-answers-to-painful-questions-202201181529 Source: FXStreet.

Interbank, Ghana. As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana has kept the policy rate at 14.5%. https://www.myjoyonline.com/policy-rate-kept-unchanged-at-14-5-interest-rates-record-mixed-trends/ Source: MyJoyOnline.

Interbank, U.S. Treasury. The U.S. Department of the Treasury announces marketable borrowing estimates. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0575.

Interbank, U.S. Treasury. Benjamin Harris, Treasury Department assistant secretary, issues statement on U.S. economic status and expectations. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0574.

Foreign exchange rates of interest

EUR/USD=1.1187

GBP/USD=1.3429

USD/MXN=20.7222

USD/GTQ=7.5034

USD/NGN=415.212

USD/GHS=6.2370

USD/VND=22,646.7

USD/JPY=115.32

USD/INR=74.7022

Source: OANDA

Interbank Market News Scan: Rupee jumps against the U.S. dollar; bridging the global trade financing gap with Commercial Data Interchange

Interbank, India, rupee. The rupee surged 45 paise to close at 74.62 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on January 31 supported by positive domestic equities and improved risk appetite. Source: The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/business/markets/rupee-jumps-45-paise-to-close-at-7462-against-us-dollar/article38353579.ece

Interbank, Ukraine. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has recorded a decline in currency demand on the interbank foreign exchange market last Friday, according to a press release issued by the central bank, Ukrinform reports. Source: Ukrinform. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3394687-nbu-records-decrease-in-currency-demand-on-interbank-market.html

Interbank, Bank for International Settlements. Eddie Yue makes argument for closing the trade finance gap with better connectivity between digital finance platforms. Source: Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/review/r220126a.htm

Foreign exchange rates of interest to Atlanta

EUR/USD=1.1148

GBP/USD=1.3398

USD/MXN=20.7989

USD/GTQ=7.5066

USD/NGN=415.160

USD/GHS=6.2239

USD/VND=22,645.0

USD/JPY=115.23

USD/INR=74.9150

USD/BTC=0.00003

USD/ETH=0.00039

Source: OANDA

MarketWatch Dollar Index=96.92

Interbank Market News Scan: Bank of England to announce interest rate targets today

Interbank, central bank, Bank of England. At 12 pm GMT (8:00 am EST), the Bank of England (BOE) releases its monetary policy report today including its target interest rates.  The current bank rate is set at 0.1%.  The bank rate determines the interest rates the BOE pays to commercial banks which in turn impacts rates paid by commercial bank borrowing customers.  This rate is important to traders because it provides valuable information that can be used to determine changes in inflation and yields on government bonds which in turn provides the trader with insights as to where foreign exchange rates will move.  

The BOE’s current inflation target is 2.0%, but actual inflation is running at 3.1%.  Since November 2009, the BOE has purchased £895 million in corporate and government bonds as part of its quantitative easing program.  QE is intended to help lower interest rates and stimulate growth in the British economy.

Traders should contact their brokers for more information on how BOE’s interest rates decision may move foreign exchange rates.

Interbank, central bank, Federal Reserve.  Yesterday, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System announced that its federal fund and discount window rate target would remain between 0-.25%. In addition, the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce later this month its monthly purchases of US Treasury bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities.  It will reduce its monthly purchase of US Treasurys from $80 billion to $70 billion.  It will reduce its monthly agency mortgage-backed securities from $40 billion to $35 billion.

The Federal Reserve asset purchases were designed primarily to keep interest rates and stimulate the economy during the COVID pandemic.  As more Americans are vaccinated and the negative impact of the supply chain congestion wanes, the Federal Reserve is seeing more reasons to trim its asset purchases.

The Federal Reserve has made it clear that the decision to taper asset purchases and the decision to raise the federal funds rate are separate issues.  If, however, the taper policy was implemented to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low, traders should expect upward movement in interest rates as a result.  Increased interest rates may have an impact on the direction of foreign exchange rates regardless of a Federal Reserve decision to increase the fed funds rate.

Traders should contact their brokers for more information on how the Federal Reserve’s fed funds rate and tapering decisions may move foreign exchange rates.

Alton Drew

4.11.2021

Disclaimer: The above is provided for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial or legal advice or as creating an agreement to provide financial or legal advice.

Interbank Market News Scan: The world waits for the Fed’s decision on tapering …

Interbank, China. The following are the parity rates for the Chinese renminbi. https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/271640484/market-exchange-rates-in-china—-nov-3

Interbank, India. The rupee appreciated by 22 paise to close at 74.46 (provisional) against the US dollar on Wednesday on the back of easing crude oil prices and foreign fund flows into domestic IPOs. https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/rupee-appreciates-22-paise-to-close-at-74-46-against-the-us-dollar-121110301094_1.html

Interbank, foreign currencies, Afghanistan. Taliban bans foreign currencies in Afghanistan. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59129470

Interbank, central bank digital currencies. A network among multiple central bank digital currencies could create efficiencies in the tens of billions of dollars and benefit all participants, according to a new report. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-03/what-a-global-central-bank-digital-currency-network-might-do?sref=oriheOus

Interbank. There is a disconnect between exchange rates and the classical variables that explain them. https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/why-currency-exchange-rates-fluctuate

My Morning Takeaway: The trader should seek out best information sources on the future …

The Bloomberg article I note above has me thinking about how currency trade will look in the near future.  I am not surprised about the discussions being held regarding how a central bank digital currency will be distributed globally.  If efficiencies are created by a network of central bank digital currencies, especially where banks can save on settlement costs, then the trader, in my opinion, should get as much insight into the degree of volatility spawned by an increasingly efficient network.

If we assume efficiency involves an increase in data that can be analyzed at a faster rate, then a broker should be able to convey this information to a trader using her broker network.  Again, the ability of a broker to provide this type of information thus giving the trader insights on how volatility may impact price movements will prove invaluable to both the trader and broker.

Another side-note thought on the future: the role of the bank in a central bank digital currency future.  I don’t see the banks being cut out of the payment system per se.  The banks’ strategic and tactical position in the payments system makes them too valuable for central banks to kick to the curb.  Credit creates money and the banks will continue their role as the retail distributors of the currency whether that currency is a central bank distributed coin or not.

Alton Drew 3.11.2021

Interbank Market News Scan: The crypto-digital world finds the fiat currency worthless …

30 July 2021

The Takeaway: The crypto-digital world finds the fiat currency worthless …

The past couple posts I have been harping on whether Amazon or Facebook can create a viable digital nation-state.  Right now, I am putting Amazon in lead, but if Facebook can create a more viable transactions-based economy rather than relying on being a pure private data aggregator and reseller, then Facebook may have the potential in the longer run to rival Amazon.

For now, occupants of the digital world are not placing any crypto-monetary value on fiat currencies.  I don’t see this no-value perspective changing any time soon on the part of digital world residents.  For example, according to OANDA data from twelve months ago, USD/ETH was priced at .0031.  Today, the price of USD/ETH is at .0004.  I believe the more closed-loop the digital world can remain, the less the digital world’s demand for fiat currency. 

Holders of cryptocurrency are still interested in holding crypto as an asset versus a medium of exchange for trade even though the rhetoric is quick to describe crypto as a payment system as well. Examples of commercial entities accepting crypto as payment should be discounted by the preference for holding crypto as an asset versus medium of exchange.

On the other hand, I am mindful that on a global basis crypto as a medium of exchange is creeping into consumer mindset with El Salvador’s decision to accept crypto as legal tender.  It is way too early to tell what degree of success crypto will see in the Central American nation.  In the meantime, public policy in the United States is to treat cryptocurrency as a digital asset and until the time comes where legacy nation-states view the digital world as a trade partner, USD/ETH and USD/BTC will be priced at zero for a while.

Alton Drew

For a consultation on any regulatory or legislative discussions or announcements, please reach out to us at altondrew@altondrew.com for information on consultation rates and to reserve an appointment.

Rates reported by the Federal Reserve (Release Date 29 July 2021)

Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.10%

Discount Window:  0.25%

Prime Bank Rate: 3.25%

3-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

6-month Treasury bill: 0.05%

1-year Treasury bill: 0.07%

Prices

Exchange rates of interest as of 9:49 am EST

Currency pairExchange rate
AUD/USD*0.7371
EUR/USD*1.1884
GBP/USD*1.3965
USD/CAD*1.2434
USD/CHF*0.9061
USD/JPY*109.6500
USD/MXN*19.8480
USD/BTC+0.0000
USD/ETH+0.0004
Sources: *Reuters +OANDA