US waits for Senate election results from Georgia; strength of US dollar against European, African currencies a mixed bag …

PairsOANDA as of 4 January 2021OANDA as of 6 January 2021Notes
USD/KES108.391108.461Dollar flat
USD/NGN384.938381.690Dollar weakening
USD/GHS5.85245.85693Dollar flat
USD/CDF1950.611950.01Dollar flat
USD/AOA648.310649.149Dollar flat
USD/ZAR14.630914.8552Dollar strengthening
Source: OANDA

Meanwhile, as the count in Georgia comes to a close, yields on longer term notes begin to increase as the Senate gets closer to a 50-50 split and the likelihood of more spending under a Biden administration ….

RatesFederal Reserve as of 4 January 2021Bloomberg as of 6 January 2021 10:30 am AST
Federal Funds Rate0.090.08
Prime Rate3.253.25
3-month Treasury0.090.08
2-year Treasury0.110.13
10-year Treasury0.931.02
30-year Treasury1.661.78
Source: Federal Reserve, OANDA

And the buzz phrase again mid-week is dollar weakening as exchange rates for a number of foreign exchange pairs continues to fall. This in light of disappointing jobs numbers from ADP where the payroll company determined that 123,000 jobs were lost in December 2020.

PairsFederal Reserve as of 4 January 2021OANDA as of 4 January 2021OANDA as of 6 January 2021 10:45 am AST
GBP/USD1.36621.36331.35967
USD/CAD1.27531.27261.27269
USD/CNH6.52506.45526.43929
USD/DKK6.08396.06576.05823
EUR/USD1.22301.22641.22774
USD/INR73.010072.936773.0696
USD/MXN19.892019.838219.9091
USD/JPY103.1900103.02102.36
USD/NOK8.57578.53008.50760
USD/SEK8.20958.20918.20299
USD/CHF0.88410.88150.87959
Source: OANDA

Federal Reserve releases select exchange rates as of 11 December 2020

Atlanta 14 December 2020, 9:43 PM EST

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System today released the foreign exchange rates for the following foreign exchange pairs. Compare with exchange rates quoted by foreign exchange broker OANDA as of 9:59 PM EST:

Federal Reserve OANDA

EUR/USD = 1.2112 EUR/USD = 1.21443

GBP/USD = 1.3197 GBP/USD = 1.33503

USD/CAD = 1.2767 USD/CAD = 1.27508

USD/JPY = 103.880 USD/JPY = 103.93

9:47 am 11 November 2020, Foreign exchange rates between U.S. and select countries in East Africa, West Africa, the Caribbean, and Asia

As of  9:47 am EST, 11 November 2020:

How to read the chart:

CAD/USD: If you come to the United States with one Canadian dollar (CAD)and wish to sell it for a US dollar (USD), the market price is .76819 USD.

USD/CAD: If you take a US dollar (USD) to Canada and wish to sell it for a Canadian dollar (CAD), the market price is 1.30157 CAD

CAD/USD=0.76819   USD/CAD=1.30157

CNH/USD= 0.15142   USD/CNH=6.60316

EUR/USD= 1.18174    USD/EUR=0.84611

DKK/USD =0.15870     USD/DKK=6.29960

NGN/USD= 0.00262    USD/NGN=379.530

JPY/USD=0.00951       USD/JPY=105.18

INR/USD=0.01347       USD/INR=74.0906

JMD/USD=0.00674      USD/JMD=145.426

GYD/USD=0.00478       USD/GYD= 209.215

GHS/USD=0.17136       USD/GHS= 5.82457

XCD/USD=0.37037        USD/XCD= 2.70

KES/USD = 0.00911       USD/KES= 108.146

Source: OANDA

Major political/legal event in the United States

Last Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the October 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows a decline in income and spending growth expectations. Changes in labor market expectations were mixed showing declines in both average job loss and job finding expectations. Median inflation expectations declined at the short-term horizon, while remaining unchanged at the medium-term horizon. Uncertainty and disagreement about future inflation decreased slightly but remained at an elevated level.

Foreign exchange rates between U.S. and select countries in East Africa, West Africa, the Caribbean, and Asia

As of 11:32 am EST, 6 November 2020:

How to read the chart:

CAD/USD: If you come to the United States with one Canadian dollar (CAD)and wish to sell it for a US dollar (USD), the market price is .76351 USD.

USD/CAD: If you take a US dollar (USD) to Canada and wish to sell it for a Canadian dollar (CAD), the market price is 1.30955 CAD

CAD/USD=0.76351   USD/CAD=1.30955

CNH/USD= 0.15097   USD/CNH=6.62248

EUR/USD= 1.17863    USD/EUR=0.84834

DKK/USD =0.15827     USD/DKK=6.31674

NGN/USD= 0.00260    USD/NGN=382.756

JPY/USD=0.00962       USD/JPY=103.98

INR/USD=0.01349       USD/INR=73.9934

JMD/USD=0.00678      USD/JMD=144.450

GYD/USD=0.00478       USD/GYD= 209.187

GHC/USD=0.00002       USD/GHC= 58,277.2

XCD/USD=0.37037        USD/XCD= 2.70

KES/USD = 0.00909       USD/KES= 107.789

Source: Bankrate

Major political/legal event in the United States:  Ballot counting is continuing in the U.S. presidential elections. Democratic presidential candidate Joseph R. Biden reportedly has 264 unofficial Electoral College votes while Republican candidate Donald J. Trump has 214 unofficial Electoral College votes.

The official declaration of President-Elect is scheduled for 14 December 2020.

Today, the House Republican caucus plans to meet to discuss the feasibility of President Trump’s legal strategy for turning the ballot counting tide toward him and away from Joe Biden.  A number of prominent Republicans have questioned the President’s post election tone. For example, retiring US Senator Pat Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, found Trump allegations of election fraud to be without evidence and Mr Trump‘s words, “disturbing.”

Source: Bloomberg

Update: Dollar continues depreciation against a number of currencies in face of more elections legal action by President Trump

As of 8:21 pm EST, 5 November 2020:

How to read the chart:

CAD/USD: If you come to the United States with one Canadian dollar (CAD)and wish to sell it for a US dollar (USD), the market price is .76351 USD.

USD/CAD: If you take a US dollar (USD) to Canada and wish to sell it for a Canadian dollar (CAD), the market price is 1.30955 CAD

CAD/USD=0.76351   USD/CAD=1.30955

CNH/USD= 0.15097   USD/CNH=6.62248

EUR/USD= 1.17863    USD/EUR=0.84834

DKK/USD =0.15827     USD/DKK=6.31674

NGN/USD= 0.00260    USD/NGN=382.756

JPY/USD=0.00962       USD/JPY=103.98

INR/USD=0.01349       USD/INR=73.9934

JMD/USD=0.00678      USD/JMD=144.450

GYD/USD=0.00478       USD/GYD= 209.187

GHC/USD=0.00002       USD/GHC= 58,277.2

XCD/USD=0.37037        USD/XCD= 2.70

Source: Bankrate

Major political/legal event in the United States:  Ballot counting is continuing in the U.S. presidential elections. Democratic presidential candidate Joseph R. Biden reportedly has 264 unofficial Electoral College votes while Republican candidate Donald J. Trump has 214 unofficial Electoral College votes.

The official declaration of President-Elect is scheduled for 14 December 2020.

Today, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System decided to maintain its target range for its inter-bank rate between 0 and .25%.

Also, today, President Donald J. Trump held a press conference expressing concern about how ballots were being counted in a number of states.  He indicated that he was prepared to pursue legal action to ensure that ballot counts were conducted in a fair and transparent manner.

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve

Foreign exchange rates between U.S. and countries with investment interests in Baltimore

As of 8:30 am EST, 3 November 2020:

How to read the chart:

CAD/USD: If you come to the United States with one Canadian dollar (CAD)and wish to sell it for a US dollar (USD), the market price is .75230 USD.

USD/CAD: If you take a US dollar (USD) to Canada and wish to sell it for a Canadian dollar (CAD), the market price is 1.32909 CAD

CAD/USD=0.75230   USD/CAD=1.32909

CNH/USD= 0.14944   USD/CNH=6.69030

EUR/USD= 1.16373    USD/EUR=0.85920

DKK/USD =0.15628     USD/DKK=6.39720

NGN/USD= 0.00259    USD/NGN=382.951

JPY/USD=0.00955       USD/JPY=104.75

INR/USD=0.01342       USD/INR=74.3724

JMD/USD=0.00679      USD/JMD=144.248

Source: Bankrate

Are currency traders willing to pay more for the US dollar in face of US election? ….

Capital abhors a vacuum and even with the U.S. general election three days away, capital will try to cut through the campaign noise and seek out a return. From a political and legal event perspective, traders should assess the strength of legal challenges to voting, especially challenges raised by the Republican Party.

Republicans and Democrats have been building their legal teams for over a year and both will be on the lookout for voting irregularities including evidence of voter suppression or voter fraud. Republicans are expected to challenge authenticity of mail-in ballots and the deadlines for when these ballots are expected to be received. Traders should be particularly mindful of the intensity of Republican challenges given that incumbent president Donald J. Trump is running behind Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden in national polls.

Real Clear Politics has Mr Biden polling at 51.3% versus Mr Trumps 43.5% during the period 21 October to 30 October 2020. PredictIt is pricing a .65 probability of a Democratic takeover of the White House versus a probability of .40 that the Republican Party maintains control of the Oval Office.

But the foreign exchange markets appear to see the value of the US dollar priced in various currencies increasing as we get closer to the election.

Country/Currency24 October25 October26 October27 October28 October29 October30 October31 October
Mexico (MXN)20.921020.840820.847620.966720.927121.169421.310121.2962
Canada (CAD)1.313611.311911.312201.318291.317761.325551.332211.33172
Japan (Yen)104.72104.66104.67104.87104.61104.30104.44104.49
China (Yuan)6.677336.676806.676806.699166.705156.716726.711576.68746
Euro.84496.84274.84288.84578.84622.85056.85398.85694
Eastern Caribbean Dollar2.702.702.702.702.702.702.702.70
Brazil (BRL)5.601805.618405.618185.621155.644745.722425.758215.76506
Price of US Dollar in selected exchange rates 24 October to 31 October 2020

With the exception of Japan and the Eastern Caribbean, the prices in foreign currency offered for a US Dollar have been inching up over the last week. Traders in the above nations reflect a number of major US trading partners and the increase in the amount traders in these countries are willing to offer a seller of the US dollar tells me that at a minimum, they have positive expectation in the potential for growth in the US and that public policies offered by Mr Biden might not deter expected growth or value of the dollar.

Again, traders should be on the lookout for any legal, legislative, or regulatory actions that thwart the ability of Mr Biden to garner enough votes to win the Electoral College.

Additional source: OANDA.com

Cayman Islands, United Kingdom, and Japan lead as source of foreign securities held by the United States

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

Washington – The findings from the annual survey of U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities at year-end 2019 were released today and posted on the Treasury web site at https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Pages/shcreports.aspx

The survey was undertaken jointly by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 

A complementary survey measuring foreign holdings of U.S. securities is also conducted annually.  Data from the most recent such survey, which reports on securities held at end-June 2020, are currently being processed.  Preliminary results are expected to be reported on February 26, 2021.

OVERALL RESULTS

This survey measured the value of U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities at year-end 2019 as approximately $13.1 trillion, with $9.5  trillion held in foreign equity, $3.1 trillion held in foreign long-term debt securities (original term-to-maturity in excess of one year), and $0.5 trillion held in foreign short-term debt securities.  The previous such survey, conducted as of year-end 2018, measured U.S. holdings of approximately $11.3 trillion, with $7.9 trillion held in foreign equity, $2.9 trillion held in foreign long-term debt securities, and $0.5 trillion held in foreign short-term debt securities.  The increase in 2019 was mainly in equity (see Table 1).

U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities by country at the end of 2019 were the largest for the Cayman Islands ($2.00 trillion), followed by the United Kingdom ($1.52 trillion), Japan ($1.15 trillion), and Canada ($1.10 trillion) (see Table 2).  These four countries attracted 44 percent of total U.S. portfolio investment, versus 45 percent the previous year.
The surveys are part of an internationally coordinated effort under the auspices of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to improve the measurement of portfolio asset holdings.

TABLE 1.  U.S. HOLDINGS OF FOREIGN SECURITIES, BY TYPE OF SECURITY, AS OF SURVEY DATES [1]

(Billions of dollars)

Type of SecurityDecember 31, 2018December 31, 2019
   
Long-term Securities10,79312,617
            Equity7,8999,478
            Long-term debt2,8943,139
Short-term debt securities502470
Total11,29513,087

U.S. PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT BY COUNTRY

Table 2.  Market value of U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities, by country and type of security, for countries attracting the most U.S. investment, as of December 31, 2019 [1]

(Billions of dollars)

Country or categoryTotalEquityDebt
TotalLong-termShort-term
Cayman Islands2,000,8011,501,486499,315494,4794,836
United Kingdom1,517,1651,013,549503,616411,51092,106
Japan1,147,091926,921220,171164,22555,946
Canada1,097,840592,702505,138394,631110,507
France661,756468,257193,499167,97425,525
Ireland647,745560,50887,23778,2369,001
Switzerland596,729551,90144,82842,1952,633
Netherlands572,862370,537202,324188,33613,988
Germany467,164380,90786,25770,43715,820
Australia366,041201,612164,429120,58943,840
Bermuda274,844239,41235,43135,39734
Korea, South231,202211,61519,58819,354234
China, mainland (1)222,282204,25218,03015,1972,833
Taiwan214,872214,80369690
India200,659185,10715,55214,5471,005
Brazil197,708168,53029,17828,624554
Hong Kong180,713170,8349,8797,2192,660
Spain162,493115,11247,38144,2103,171
Luxembourg156,69381,25175,44271,9233,519
Sweden155,408110,17245,23529,85215,383
Rest of world2,015,2931,208,546806,748740,46666,282
Total13,087,3619,478,0143,609,3473,139,470469,877

*     Greater than zero but less than $500 million.

Items may not sum to totals due to rounding.

[1] The stock of foreign securities for December 31, 2019, reported in this survey may not, for a number of reasons, correspond to the stock of foreign securities on December 31, 2018, plus cumulative flows reported in Treasury’s transactions reporting system.  An analysis of the relationship between the stock and flow data is available in Exhibit 4 and the associated text of “U.S. Portfolio Holdings of Foreign Securities as of End-December 2019.”

[2] China, Hong Kong, and Macau are all reported separately.

Foreign exchange rates between U.S. and countries with diplomatic presence in Atlanta, Georgia

As of 10:22 pm EST, 28 October 2020, here is the price of the U.S. Dollar in foreign currency of interest:

1 EUR= 1.17556 USD   1 USD= .85056 EUR

1 XCD (Eastern Caribbean) = 0.37037 USD  1 USD= 2.70 XCD

*1 CHD (Canada)= 0.75430 USD  1 USD= 1.32555 CHD

*1 CHF (Switzerland)= 1.09853 USD   1 USD= 0.91014 CHF

*1 ISL (Israel)= 0.29366 USD     1 USD = 3.38572 ISL

*1 ARS (Argentina)= 0.01277 USD    1 USD = 78.2977 ARS

*1 BSD (The Bahamas) = 1.00 USD   1 USD = 1 BSD

*1 ECS (Ecuador)= 0.00004 USD    1 USD = 24,094 ECS

*1 BRL (Brazil)= 0.17464 USD   1 USD = 5.72242 BRL

*1 KRW (South Korea) = 0.00088 USD   1 USD = 1132.29 KRW

*1 HTG (Haiti)= 0.01576 USD   1 USD = 61.7696 HTG

*1 LRD (Liberia) = 0.00536 USD   1 USD = 186.687 LRD

*1 MXN (Mexico) = 0.04722 USD     1 USD = 21.1694 MXN

*1 JPY (Japan) = 0.00959 USD   1 USD = 104.30 JPY

*1 JMD (Jamaica) = 0.00678 USD   1 USD = 144.408  JMD

Source: Bankrate

Foreign exchange rates in countries of interest …

As of 9:48 pm EST, here is the price of the U.S. Dollar in foreign currency of interest:

1 EUR= $1.18550

1 AOA (Angola)= $0.00154

1 ZAR (South Africa)= $0.06165

1 NGN (Nigeria)= $0.00260

1 INR (India)= $0.01353

1 KES (Kenya)= $0.00913

1 CNY (China)= $0.14933

1 XCD (Eastern Caribbean)= $.37037

*1 CHD (Canada)= $0.76154

*1 CHF (Switzerland)= $1.10492

*1 ISL (Israel)= $0.29533

*1 ARS (Argentina)= $0.01280

*1 BSD (The Bahamas)= $1.00

*1 ECS (Ecuador)= $0.00004

*1 BRL (Brazil)= $0.17789

*1 KRW (South Korea)= $0.00089

*1 HTG (Haiti)= $0.01578

*1 LRD (Liberia) = $0.00512

*1 MXN (Mexico) = $0.04784

*1 JPY (Japan) =$0.00955

*1 JMD (Jamaica) =$0.00679

Source: Bankrate

*Has a consulate office located in Atlanta