For US major trade partners, a mixed bag on their costs for the dollar …

The top twelve destinations for U.S. exports are Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, Great Britain, France, Germany, Belgium, South Korea, Norway, Brazil, and Taiwan. There has been a mixed bag in terms of increases or decreases in each country’s cost of the US dollar since the beginning of 2021. Using currency data from OANDA, we identified the rate changes between 1 January 2021 and 18 March 2021.

Currency pair1 January 202118 March 2021Percentage change
USD/CAD1.27411.2450-2.3
USD/MXN19.883320.59713.6
USD/CNY6.52776.5006-0.4
USD/JPY103.1600109.07005.7
USD/GBP0.73250.7189-1.9
USD/EUR(1)0.81530.83882.9
USD/KRW1,086.10001,128.13003.9
USD/NOK8.54548.4699-0.9
USD/BRL5.19165.62088.2
USD/TWD28.077228.27240.7
Source: OANDA

(1) France, Germany, and Belgium use the euro as their currency. We refer to them collectively as the Eurozone.

Since January, countries seeing their currencies significantly strengthen against the dollar are Canada and Great Britain. On the other hand, Mexico, Japan, the Eurozone, South Korea, and Brazil have seen their currencies significantly weaken, making their cost to import U.S. product more expensive.

The primary mover of currency rates is supply and demand. The increased price of the dollar could be a result of this basic economic principal. Changes in bond yields may also have an impact on currency pricing as well as changes in policy rates imposed on banks due to their central banks’ policy initiatives.

During the same period in 2020, with the exception of Japan, all other top US trading partners saw their costs for US exports increase as shown in the following table:

Currency pair1 January 202018 March 2020Percentage change
USD/CAD1.30161.41008.3
USD/MXN18.906422.826620.7
USD/CNY6.96687.00480.4
USD/JPY108.6300106.9900-1.5
USD/GBP0.75830.82318.5
USD/EUR0.89150.90351.3
USD/KRW1,154.56001,240.10007.4
USD/NOK8.790610.357317.8
USD/BRL4.01635.006924.7
USD/TWD29.953130.21870.9
Source: OANDA

The shut downs around the globe due to the pandemic we believe may be the significant factor behind the changes in direction of these currency pairs.

18 March 2021 11:58 am EST

Are currency traders willing to pay more for the US dollar in face of US election? ….

Capital abhors a vacuum and even with the U.S. general election three days away, capital will try to cut through the campaign noise and seek out a return. From a political and legal event perspective, traders should assess the strength of legal challenges to voting, especially challenges raised by the Republican Party.

Republicans and Democrats have been building their legal teams for over a year and both will be on the lookout for voting irregularities including evidence of voter suppression or voter fraud. Republicans are expected to challenge authenticity of mail-in ballots and the deadlines for when these ballots are expected to be received. Traders should be particularly mindful of the intensity of Republican challenges given that incumbent president Donald J. Trump is running behind Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden in national polls.

Real Clear Politics has Mr Biden polling at 51.3% versus Mr Trumps 43.5% during the period 21 October to 30 October 2020. PredictIt is pricing a .65 probability of a Democratic takeover of the White House versus a probability of .40 that the Republican Party maintains control of the Oval Office.

But the foreign exchange markets appear to see the value of the US dollar priced in various currencies increasing as we get closer to the election.

Country/Currency24 October25 October26 October27 October28 October29 October30 October31 October
Mexico (MXN)20.921020.840820.847620.966720.927121.169421.310121.2962
Canada (CAD)1.313611.311911.312201.318291.317761.325551.332211.33172
Japan (Yen)104.72104.66104.67104.87104.61104.30104.44104.49
China (Yuan)6.677336.676806.676806.699166.705156.716726.711576.68746
Euro.84496.84274.84288.84578.84622.85056.85398.85694
Eastern Caribbean Dollar2.702.702.702.702.702.702.702.70
Brazil (BRL)5.601805.618405.618185.621155.644745.722425.758215.76506
Price of US Dollar in selected exchange rates 24 October to 31 October 2020

With the exception of Japan and the Eastern Caribbean, the prices in foreign currency offered for a US Dollar have been inching up over the last week. Traders in the above nations reflect a number of major US trading partners and the increase in the amount traders in these countries are willing to offer a seller of the US dollar tells me that at a minimum, they have positive expectation in the potential for growth in the US and that public policies offered by Mr Biden might not deter expected growth or value of the dollar.

Again, traders should be on the lookout for any legal, legislative, or regulatory actions that thwart the ability of Mr Biden to garner enough votes to win the Electoral College.

Additional source: OANDA.com

Foreign exchange rates between U.S. and countries with diplomatic presence in Atlanta, Georgia

As of 10:22 pm EST, 28 October 2020, here is the price of the U.S. Dollar in foreign currency of interest:

1 EUR= 1.17556 USD   1 USD= .85056 EUR

1 XCD (Eastern Caribbean) = 0.37037 USD  1 USD= 2.70 XCD

*1 CHD (Canada)= 0.75430 USD  1 USD= 1.32555 CHD

*1 CHF (Switzerland)= 1.09853 USD   1 USD= 0.91014 CHF

*1 ISL (Israel)= 0.29366 USD     1 USD = 3.38572 ISL

*1 ARS (Argentina)= 0.01277 USD    1 USD = 78.2977 ARS

*1 BSD (The Bahamas) = 1.00 USD   1 USD = 1 BSD

*1 ECS (Ecuador)= 0.00004 USD    1 USD = 24,094 ECS

*1 BRL (Brazil)= 0.17464 USD   1 USD = 5.72242 BRL

*1 KRW (South Korea) = 0.00088 USD   1 USD = 1132.29 KRW

*1 HTG (Haiti)= 0.01576 USD   1 USD = 61.7696 HTG

*1 LRD (Liberia) = 0.00536 USD   1 USD = 186.687 LRD

*1 MXN (Mexico) = 0.04722 USD     1 USD = 21.1694 MXN

*1 JPY (Japan) = 0.00959 USD   1 USD = 104.30 JPY

*1 JMD (Jamaica) = 0.00678 USD   1 USD = 144.408  JMD

Source: Bankrate

Foreign exchange rates in countries of interest …

As of 9:48 pm EST, here is the price of the U.S. Dollar in foreign currency of interest:

1 EUR= $1.18550

1 AOA (Angola)= $0.00154

1 ZAR (South Africa)= $0.06165

1 NGN (Nigeria)= $0.00260

1 INR (India)= $0.01353

1 KES (Kenya)= $0.00913

1 CNY (China)= $0.14933

1 XCD (Eastern Caribbean)= $.37037

*1 CHD (Canada)= $0.76154

*1 CHF (Switzerland)= $1.10492

*1 ISL (Israel)= $0.29533

*1 ARS (Argentina)= $0.01280

*1 BSD (The Bahamas)= $1.00

*1 ECS (Ecuador)= $0.00004

*1 BRL (Brazil)= $0.17789

*1 KRW (South Korea)= $0.00089

*1 HTG (Haiti)= $0.01578

*1 LRD (Liberia) = $0.00512

*1 MXN (Mexico) = $0.04784

*1 JPY (Japan) =$0.00955

*1 JMD (Jamaica) =$0.00679

Source: Bankrate

*Has a consulate office located in Atlanta