I don’t see Stacey Abrams challenging Kemp in 2022

Sitting here watching the movie Moneyball for the first time.  What struck me was the approach to putting together a winning team, an approach based on statistics and the idea of buying hits, runs, and on-base.  I think that is an approach Georgia’s Democrats have to take in 2022 when they make another attempt at taking Georgia’s governorship.  They will need a candidate that is not afraid to think outside of the box, and thinking outside of the box means finding a candidate not afraid to go after voters that live outside of metro Atlanta.

It won’t be Stacey Abrams.

Stacey Abrams had the persona of that co-worker you are glad to see on a Monday morning.  She had the voice and smile that would tell a co-worker, “We can do this. It’s just Monday. We got this. The week will be fine.”  This positive attitude came across when she attempted to sell Georgia voters on the idea of expanding Medicaid to a larger population of Georgia’s residents while employing over 50,000 more residents necessary for delivering expanded services.

What got me for months were the optics.  I quite frankly did not care for the over-educated, “people of color” urbanites that made up a significant portion of her support.  This group, and their cadre of west coast financial donors never struck me as knowing much of anything about Atlanta outside of I-485, thus knew nothing much about Georgia, especially the state’s rural base.  With this bunch making up her entourage, I could never see Ms. Abrams getting the full trust of rural residents.

The flip side to my argument is that Ms. Abrams got 1,923,685 votes, just over 48% of the total vote.  This is indicative that a significant portion of Georgia’s voting population bought into Ms. Abrams’ messaging.  Ms. Abrams could bank this new found political capital via her newly formed political action committee, Fair Fight Georgia.  According to The San Francisco Bay View, Fair Fight Georgia will have as its aim to pursue accountability in Georgia’s elections along with insuring integrity in maintaining Georgia’s electoral rolls.

But what to do with 1,923,685 votes worth of political capital?  I expect Ms. Abrams to remain in Georgia and the nation’s public eye and challenge U.S. Senator David Perdue for his senate seat in 2020.  She has already shown herself a formidable competitor in a statewide race.  Challenging Mr. Perdue seems the next logical step, especially on her way to pursuing what I believe could be her ultimate goal, the United States presidency.

 

Advertisements

City of Atlanta’s response to Brian Kemp’s victory: silence

Today, Stacey Abrams acknowledged that a court-facilitated path to the governor’s office in Georgia is not there. Although not a traditional concession that the race is over, her Republican challenger, Brian Kemp, can now proceed to taking over the governorship without the distraction of court challenges.

What does this mean for the city of Atlanta in the short term? Besides having a ground level view to a smooth and peaceful transition of power intended by the designers of American democracy, I believe not much. The city’s residents are preparing for the holiday season, with Thanksgiving next week and Christmas coming in the next five.

Over the next two years I suspect that residents will take note of predicted changes in the economy, specifically increasing bank rates, inflation, and increasing bond yields on Treasury notes.  As the population continues to increase and demand for housing along with it, Atlanta’s lower income class will be the first to feel the financial pressure as homes become less affordable, businesses raise prices, and the gains in labor start to fade.

Although local elected officials will bear the brunt of increasing criticism for the state of the city’s economic affairs, Mr. Kemp, in order to ward off a successful election challenge in 2022, will have to come up with an economic management plan that at least prevents Atlanta from spawning the next challenger.

As for Atlanta city government’s relationship with the Governor and the Georgia General Assembly, I have yet to see whether one exists.  If today is any indication, Atlanta’s mayor, Keisha Bottoms, had not, at the time of this writing, issued a press release congratulating the governor-elect.

It also does not help that Mrs. Bottoms has aligned herself with the “sanctuary city” movement where local city officials and civic groups have challenged federal immigration laws requiring cooperation with federal agencies in the detention of undocumented foreigners residing in the United States.

Having not spent time herself as a member of the Georgia Assembly, nor, based on her bio, no time in political or non-political positions requiring engagement with the governor’s office or the general assembly, Mrs. Bottoms seems to be falling further behind on the legislative and executive front as a result of not being in a position to foster these relationships.

That said, it is still early in the political game heading into the 2019 legislative session. There may be time to build those relationships.

 

Black Georgia voters opting for history versus substance

Dropped by the polling spot in the West End Atlanta to cast a vote.  Gentleman behind me, African American, begins to harp quietly but confidently about the historic moment; the opportunity to send Georgia’s first black American female to the governor’s office.

I held my tongue.  I am not impressed by the notion of symbolic voting, the need to be the “first black this” or the “first black that.”  It has garnered black Americans nothing of substance other than a brief few hours of pride for the onesie-twosies.

Should Stacey Abrams pull off a victory, whether tonight or in a run-off, she will have her ability to negotiate across the aisle challenged by a legislature dominated by Republicans who reside mostly outside of Interstate 485. Democrats don’t appear to have invested any time in providing Ms. Abrams a legislature that will work with her or at least a legislature with enough Democrats to provide her some leverage.

My instincts tell me, however, that Ms. Abrams will be satisfied with milking the “Oh, the Republicans are blocking me at all turns because I am a black woman” argument. Given the amount of support she has received from liberal political action committees outside of the Peach State, the end game may be for Ms. Abrams to survive long enough to be a viable candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2024.

I expected Kasim Reed to make a play for statewide office, but it seems that liberals have made Ms. Abrams their “people of color” poster child and hung their hopes on her.

For this to come to fruition, of course, Ms. Abrams will have to win.

State resources either Abrams or Kemp can use to drive rural broadband in Georgia.

At first blush, the stances of the two candidates for Georgia on the issue of broadband deployment are pretty much standard fare.  Citing her responses to a questionnaire by the Georgia Chamber of Commerce Democratic Party candidate Stacey Abrams describes broadband an essential business service.  To boost the economy of rural Georgia, Ms. Abrams mentions her support for the Georgia Department of Transportation’s efforts to expand broadband along the state’s rights-of-way.

Ms. Abrams is referring to the Georgia Department of Transportation’s Georgia Interstate and Wireless Broadband Deployment P3 Project.  The primary goal of GDOT’s broadband project is statewide expansion of GDOT’s NaviGAtor traffic management system.  GDOT considers NaviGAtor as a first step toward bringing broadband to more of the state’s citizens.  GDOT states that by recycling its assets i.e. state rights-of-way, GDOT can accomplish the mission without any additional tax revenues. Once private partners are on board, the project is slated to take 25 years to design construct, and deploy the fiber optic cable and small cell network along 1,300 miles of state rights-of-way.

Republican Party candidate Brian Kemp echoes Ms. Abrams sentiments about broadband being a game changer for rural Georgia.  While not citing GDOT’s NaviGAtor, Mr. Kemp cites similar benefits offered by the state’s program including eliminating fees for use of state rights-of-way; exploring tax incentives for tech companies and entrepreneurs  committed to expanding high-speed internet access in rural Georgia, and incentivizing public/private partnerships with the use of low interest loans.

Rural broadband deployment has moved further to the front of the national policy agenda line.  Federal Communications Commission chairman Ajit Pai, himself a native of rural Kansas, has been touting closing the rural digital divide since joining the FCC.

Georgia, according to the website BroadbandNow, is America’s 20th most connected state, but has some work to do when it comes to increasing the availability of alternatives for 1.4 million residents who have access to only one wired provider. Approximately 870,000 Georgia residents do not have access to a wired connection with at least 25 megabits per second download speeds.

Georgia has already taken steps to help bring more broadband networks to its citizens. In addition to GDOT’s NaviGAtor traffic management system, the state’s Department of Community Affairs is required to develop the Georgia Broadband Deployment Initiative,  a program that provides for funding for the purpose of delivering broadband to unserved areas.  Money is to be spent on capital expenses and expenses directly related to the purchase or lease of property or to communications services or facilities. Through the funding of qualified political subdivisions i.e. cities, counties, etc., Georgia hopes to promote trade, commerce, investment, and employment opportunities.

An additional state resource that Georgia can use to close its rural broadband divide is the OneGeorgia Authority.  OneGeorgia, with the use of two funds, provides financing for rural areas committed to developing their economies.  By law, Georgia’s governor serves as OneGeorgia’s chairman, putting either Ms. Abrams or Mr. Kemp in a power position to drive rural Georgia’s broadband deployment in particular and the state’s economic growth overall.