Immigrants coming from the Caribbean and Latin America to the United States over the next two years should prepare for a rough patch thereafter.

The International Monetary Fund today released a report describing a robust 2017 and 2018 U.S. economy, but 2019 and 2020 may be brutal for Americans as the economy is expected to taper off during those two years.

First the good news. Growth in gross domestic product was 2.3% in 2017 and is expected to climb by 2.9% in 2018. In 2019, the United States will see a slight tapering off in GDP growth at a growth rate of 2.7%.

Now, the bad news.  By 2020, the next presidential election year, growth will fall off almost abysmally when Americans see a GDP growth rate of 1.9%. It won’t get better in 2021, 2022, or 2023 as the growth rate continues to decline with growth rates projected at 1.7%, 1.5%, and 1.4% respectively.

At first blush the unemployment rates may look good during those periods. For example, by the end of 2017, the unemployment rate was 4.1% which is considered an indicator of an economy at full employment. The numbers, at least on the surface get better. In 2018, unemployment is expected to be at 3.5%, under the historical full employment mark. The U.S. will continue to see low unemployment in 2019(3.5%), 2020(3.4%), 2021(3.5%), 2022(3.7%), and 2023(3.8%); all figures again reflecting full employment.

Now we have to reconcile the low unemployment rate with low GDP growth. I suspect that more members of the tail end of the Baby Boom will contemplate retirement and may opt for leaving the workforce. As more people leave the workforce, all other things remaining equal, the number treated as unemployed also falls. Also, as the population ages, people on fixed incomes will adjust their budgets to reflect their new spending realities. Reduced spending by Baby Boomers will contribute will contribute to the slowdown in growth.

Also constraining spending will be the rise in interest rates as the Federal Reserve exceeds its targeted 2% federal funds rate goal. America runs on credit and the more expensive is to purchase, the less of it Americans have to spend.  According to IMF data, the ten-year bond rate ended at 2.4% in 2017. The rate on a ten-year note sets the interest rates for lending in the United States. By the end of 2018, the rate on the ten year is expected to climb to 3.2%; in 2019, 3.7%; and in 2020, 3.8%.  The rate will then level off to 3.6% in 2021 and 2022; and hit 3.7% in 2023.

Inflation is expected to peak at 2.8% in 2018 but fall to 2.4% and 2.0% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The years 2021 and 2022 will see inflation at 1.9% climbing slightly to 2.0% in 2023.

While the economy will be in a sluggish mode, immigrants should be mindful of the social mood. A lot of the animosity toward undocumented immigrants has been tossed at immigrants from Mexico and Central America. Today, media is honing in on the Trump administration’s preferred policy to separate parents attempting to enter the U.S. across its border with Mexico without visas from their children.  I suspect this treatment will be carried out at all points and ports of entry. But given the animosity hurled at immigrants during booming years of an American economy, the social fabric may be a bit worn and the welcome less warm during a sluggish one.

MLK Day 2018 and Europeans still wouldn’t trade places with you

Ask the average European or a modern day descendant of Europeans if they would trade places with a person of African descent, the answer would be no. At that point the person of African descent would have a decision to make. I can continue with the kumbaya of appeasement or I can use today’s technology and the loopholes in law to vacate, to go my own way, to be sovereign.
 
Mr Trump’s alleged comments (alleged because none of you were in the room and the people who said he said it did a poor job of standing up to him, hence cannot be trusted) should signal to people of African descent that it is time to give up the “We shall overcome” mantra when the oligarchs are signaling in no uncertain terms that “You can’t overcome when you were never issued a warm welcome.”
 
And if global support against Mr Trump’s alleged comments is what people of African descent in America are hoping will swoop in and save them like Jesus, those hopes are best put aside because, and probably due to a persistent disconnect with global affairs, the globe really does not look at us with any high favor either.
 
One would think that on a day that blacks celebrate the birth of a man that preached about freedom, that freedom from a failed narrative that has served to only imprison blacks in a continuous cycle of delusion regarding justice would be their goal.
 
As usual, I expect too much ….
 

Trump uses broadband to shore up and keep his rural base

During a speech in Nashville, Tennessee, President Donald Trump announced that he had signed an executive order designed to increase broadband access to 23 million underserved residents of rural America. The initiative involves recommitting to prior attempts to use federal facilities as sites for commercial wireless broadband facilities. Streamlining siting policy for broadband infrastructure by using federal property is seen as a way to “reduce barriers to capital investment, remove obstacles to broadband services, and more efficiently employ government resources.”

Mr Trump’s announcement was made at the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual convention just prior to the President heading further south to attend the national football championship game in the undisputed capital of the south, Atlanta. The southern flavor of the event is further flavored by the two southern teams that are playing, the University of Georgia and the University of Alabama. In my view, the convention, announcement, and attendance at the game is a great kickoff for the 2018 midterms, where getting out Mr Trump’s base will be crucial not only for the elections this November, but for the 2020 elections as well.

This may be the first of many salvos during the 2018 campaign. The connectivity and inclusion of rural America has also been the concern of Ajit Pai, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission.  Mr Pai is from the Midwest and has placed closing the digital divide high on his priority list arguably being a close second in priority to overturning the Commission’s net neutrality rules, which were repealed last month. He fervently believes that high-speed broadband access to the internet can level the economic playing field for rural residents.

The connectivity issue goes beyond technology and economics. According to an article in The Washington Post, rural Americans feel deeply estranged from their fellow Americans that live in urban areas.  Almost seven out of ten Americans living in rural areas find their values out of sync with the values of big city dwellers. The federal government is perceived by rural America as favoring urban dwellers over them.

And it doesn’t appear that rural Americans want to connect with urban Americans, broadband connectivity or not. They appear satisfied by their own social fabric, comfortable in their culture, one that sees each of them looking out for the other.

Broadband connectivity may improve their ability to move goods to markets, but it may also further enhance internal rural bonds. And given Mr Trumps penchant for social media, especially Twitter, rural America will be able to maintain a connection with the only urban dweller that matters to them.