Interbank market news scan: Will central banks tighten rates sooner than later and beware the reflation narrative …

   Exchange Rate as of 22 February 2021 As of 9:21 am EST Exchange Rate as of 25 February 2021
AUD/USD0.7868 0.7929
USD/CAD1.2613 1.2558
USD/CNY6.4859 6.4548
EUR/USD1.2117 1.2152
USD/INR72.4500 72.2983
GBP/USD1.4001 1.4141
USD/JPY105.4100 105.7300
USD/MXN20.4212 20.4361
USD/DKK6.1342 6.1185
USD/NOK8.4557 8.4322
BTC/USD55,701.5000 49,795.0000
ETH/USD1,955.4000 1,622.5700
Source: OANDA

From the Federal Reserve …

As of February 25, 2021, the Federal Reserve reported the prime bank rate is 3.25%.  The discount window rate is at .25% and the effective fed funds (interbank overnight rate) is at .07%. 

The Federal Reserve also reported the 2-year Treasury yield at .11; the 10-year yield at 1.37%, and the 30-year yield at 2.21%.

Follow the links ….

US futures have turned negative, with European stock markets reversing earlier gains as rising yields continue to weigh on sentiment. Stocks pull back on higher yields (fxstreet.com)

European stocks enjoyed another positive session yesterday, driven once again by the travel, hospitality and commercial real-estate sector. Higher rate concerns put to one side with Europe set for a positive open | CMC Markets

It’s all about that reflation narrative, a narrative that continues to force upward pressure on stocks and downward pressure on the Buck. In our Wednesday call, we did however warn to start expecting more dovish speak out of central banks around the globe, in an effort to slow the pace of the USD decline. The reflation trade narrative [Video] (fxstreet.com)

25 February 2021

9 November 2020: Yields for 30-year Treasurys increase …

As of 11:31 pm 9 November 2020, U.S. Treasury rates and Federal Funds rates are as follows:

3-month: .09%

6-month: .09%

12-month: .12%

2-year: .17%

10-year: .91%

30-year: 1.69%

Fed Funds Rate: 0.08%

Federal Reserve Target: 0.25%

Prime Rate: 3.25%

Source: Bloomberg

Major political/legal event in the United States

Biden launches transition website

Presumptive president-elect Joseph R. Biden has launched a transition website that describes his initial initiatives he plans to address upon taking office in January 2021.  Mr Biden appears prepared to engage in a level of spending to address faults and inequities in the American economic infrastructure that were in place prior to the Covid pandemic.  Spending initiatives include:

  • Providing state, local, and tribal governments with financial assistance;
  • Extending Covid crisis unemployment insurance to people out of work;
  • Provide a financial package for small businesses and entrepreneurs;
  • Creation of a public health corps that puts the unemployed to work fighting the pandemic.

No discussion has been provided by the transition team yet on the costs of these packages and the impact they may have on money supply expansion/contraction, trade, or foreign exchange rates.

Source: BuildBackBetter.com

Treasury announces tax deduction for pass-through entities

Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced rule changes that clarify that State and local income taxes imposed on and paid by a pass-through entity are allowed as a deduction by the pass-through entity in computing its non-separately stated taxable income or loss for the taxable year of payment. 

Source: Treasury.gov

In the coronavirus era, the information engineers will win …

Editorial

Most of us believe life is about accumulating cash, making enough coin to pay the bills, put the kids through school, take a vacation, and buy ourselves a couple toys.  You know.  Living our best life.  Seven hundred thousand Americans found out last month that a virus could cause havoc not only to one’s physical health but also to one’s financial health.  There will be less coin available to pay for that best life.

Americans are not coming to terms with the reality of nature; that nature is the ultimate arbiter of life on this planet.  It is why the call from political leaders in the United States and worldwide to wage war against a disease seems silly to me.  Nature always wins and I believe its victory will be manifested in how it helps change the nature of commerce and work.

How work changes will go beyond whether a bunch of lawyers, accountants, and call center operators can conduct business from home with their kids running around. (Fortunately, social distancing at home is easy for me. I have a teenager. They like staying away from their parents.)  Not only will we have to become overnight IT managers, we will have to adjust to two additional tasks: one, becoming database managers; and two, teaching our bosses’ algorithms how to read and navigate the databases we have been assigned to classify and build.

More and more professionals, from lawyers to accountants to doctors are becoming database managers.  They are being asked to go through thousands of documents, classify them, and tag them according to how relevant they are to resolving an issue of law, finance, or medical treatment.

By tagging the contents of these databases, these professionals are providing their bosses’ algorithms a template to follow; a path to build and travel on when they eventually take over more and more responsibility for mining these databases and their content.

Capital, always in fear of a vacuum, is always in search for yield.  It is  always in search of the information that increases returns on the coin.  The more efficient the search and the more robust and plentiful the information, the greater the yield.  For coin is the physical valuation of information.  The more information capital has for use, the greater the value of the coin.

But for the rest of us, for the non-capital or what I call the credit class, we will have to rethink our view of information.  Information is no longer just something told or facts learned.  It is not just news or knowledge.  It is an asset, something owned that has value.  Each household’s value going further into the 21st century will be judged on the quality, uniqueness, and value of the information that it sits on.  Households will have to spend more of their most valued currency, time, at least in the short to immediate run, accumulating that most important asset, information.

The virus has dis-aggregated Americans.  Americans sitting at home on their desk tops remotely connected to the central brain at their office will soon be called on to generate more energy in the form of information, relying on their own leased data resources and the databases they create.  Capital, demanding the reductions in the costs for information searches, will reward those households that can mine, package, and deliver information that provides capital with a list of opportunities for highest yield.

The information engineers will win for they will lead in buying that best life…